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Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate www.national‐academies.org/basc 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Keck W603 Washington, D.C. 20001 Phone: 202‐334‐3512 Fax: 202‐334‐3825 July 16, 2014 Dr. Scott G. Borg Acting Division Director Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences National Science Foundation 4201 Wilson Boulevard Arlington, VA 22230 Dear Dr. Borg: In the summer of 2013, Michael Morgan, Director of the National Science Foundation's (NSF) Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences (AGS)
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2 Review of the NSF AGS Draft Goals and Objectives Document The committee also considered information gained in discussions with AGS leadership and from the relevant literature when writing this report. The committee had two meetings (including the workshop) to deliberate and review the goals and objectives document (hereafter referred to as "the Document")
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Review of the NSF AGS Draft Goals and Objectives Document 3 (GEO) Strategic Plan. An AGS strategic document would need to be forward‐ looking and provide a timeline for accomplishing the goals and a means for assessing progress. It would also help AGS achieve its overall vision and mission. The committee recognizes that undertaking such a task would require a significant investment of human resources and time. The Document states that the purpose is to provide input to the GEO Strategic Plan. However, AGS also identified several additional disparate purposes at the community workshop: as a communication tool to orient potential and new investigators; as guidance for the new AGS director; as planning guidance to the National Center for Atmosphere Research (NCAR)
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4 Review of the NSF AGS Draft Goals and Objectives Document Mission of AGS To extend intellectual frontiers in atmospheric and geospace sciences by making responsible investments in fundamental research, technology development, and education that enable discoveries, nurture a vibrant, diverse scientific workforce, and help attain a prosperous and sustainable future. Vision of AGS To excel at being the "home" for support of curiosity‐driven research in the atmospheric and geospace sciences while also being responsive to community‐vetted, national science priorities. Including the vision of AGS in the introductory section of the Document would help establish the motivation for the goals. Additional background information about the structure of AGS and the various ways in which it funds and supports research and education is also needed, especially if the Document will be used to orient new investigators. The Document does not provide sufficient context about the range of research supported by AGS and why it is important. AGS is unique among other Federal agencies that support atmospheric research. As articulated in the mission and vision above, AGS is focused on the discoveries that transform our understanding of the atmosphere. Other Federal agencies that support atmospheric research, such as the Department of Energy (DOE) , the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
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Review of the NSF AGS Draft Goals and Objectives Document 5 NCAR's Role within AGS A significant part of AGS's budget is allocated for the Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC) called the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
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6 Review of the NSF AGS Draft Goals and Objectives Document key current and near‐future investments anticipated future areas of emphasis discussion of partners and coordinating mechanisms SPECIFIC COMMENTS ON AGS GOALS In general, goals are broad statements about desired achievements. Objectives are specific supporting achievements that can be accomplished within the plan timeline. The six main goals that serve as the section headers are not formulated as goals that can be achieved in a four year window, but as research, educational or capability development themes5 under which multiple goals can be articulated. They reflect activities supported by AGS and the degree to which research priorities arise from the research community rather than simply being dictated by AGS staff. Some questions that could be asked of more specific goals include: Why are the goals relevant to the period 2014‐2018? Are these goals different from AGS goals heretofore?
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Review of the NSF AGS Draft Goals and Objectives Document 7 Expanding the four science goals to reflect their cross cutting integration of major efforts within AGS would reflect a more forward‐looking, integrative approach that unifies research activities across the Division. The following sections are comments about the appropriateness and clarity of each goal put forth in the Document as well as missing content. Goal: Observe, Understand, and Model Extreme Events and Associated Relevant High Impact Events This goal clearly engages multiple AGS and other NSF programs. However, its Implementation subsection is very uneven. Some bullets encapsulate large amounts of general research, while others identify very specific items that do not seem to rise to the level of high priorities. Lake‐effect snow research is highlighted even though other topics such as tropical cyclones, analysis of data from the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment 2 (VORTEX2) , and analysis of cases of hazardous geospace events are not adequately addressed. Other items that appear overly specific to the topic of hazards include gravity waves, the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIE‐GCM)
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8 Review of the NSF AGS Draft Goals and Objectives Document sea ice and glacial ice sheets, the geospace environment, and solar radiation, all of which influence climate change. There should also be an acknowledgment of the critical dependence of the climate modeling enterprise on software development, visualization, documentation and maintenance, as well as high‐end computational resources. Although there are several important activities and programs mentioned as examples of AGS investments, there are several aspects of fundamental research on climate that have not been included in the Document. Such research includes: the importance of paleoclimate studies, both for providing a better understanding of Earth history and as context for climate variability and change; the challenge of measuring and modeling the water cycle; the relevance of and potential role that is played by the Arctic in both amplifying global climate change and interacting with weather and climate in the lower latitudes (NRC, 2014; links directly to Polar Programs division of GEO) ; important unresolved climate change questions (e.g., the causes of the current global warming hiatus and whether the probability distribution of climate variables is shifting or changing shape)
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Review of the NSF AGS Draft Goals and Objectives Document 9 transport mechanisms. The Document calls appropriately for analysis of results from recent field programs. To make this an AGS‐wide goal, the title should be revised and the subsequent discussion should be expanded to include investigating the processes that influence the composition of the Earth's atmosphere, including the mesosphere, thermosphere, and geospace. The discussion of the goal would be strengthened if it included: The utility of field data for model evaluation and development, or of models for interpreting field data in a larger context. Models are hardly mentioned in the context of this goal, even though they are used to integrate understanding of the mechanisms affecting atmospheric composition and how it has changed and may change in the future. The two‐way nature of the interaction between atmospheric composition and climate. There is no mention of chemistry‐climate modeling, the interdisciplinary research field that investigates this two‐way coupling. For example, the frequency and severity of pollution episodes are affected by climate, and changes in stratospheric ozone affect large‐scale circulation (Jacob and Winner, 2009; WMO, 2010) . Goal: Understand the Sun and Geospace Environment as a Coupled System. The goal is appropriate, however the title should reflect the need to investigate the Sun, geospace, and the atmosphere environments as coupled systems. The description of this goal does an excellent job of integrating the objectives of the Geospace Section. As written, the goal explains how the various programs within the Geospace Section work together to study a complex coupled system. It also has an appropriate level of detail and is a suitable length. The discussion of the goal would be strengthened if it included a description of how the work of the Geospace Section is coupled to and integrated with the rest of AGS. Currently one bullet in the Implementation focuses on the coupling of the lower atmosphere to the geospace system. The two‐ way coupling between the lower atmosphere and the near geospace environment as well as the coupling between the Sun and geospace system should be included in the broader descriptions of this goal that appear in the Rationale and Future Investment sections. Goal: Build a Competent and Diverse Scientific Workforce This goal represents long‐standing and important portions of the AGS portfolio. The educational challenge of ensuring the coming generations of researchers in AGS fields are both highly competent and represent the full range of our nation's diverse population are NSF‐wide charges to all research areas supported by the Foundation. US geoscientists have historically been well trained and highly productive; however women and most minorities have not been adequately represented, presenting AGS with a serious challenge. The Rationale for this goal is clear. The Implementation is mainly focused on existing programs supported by AGS. Overall these are quite comprehensive, and aimed at expanding the workforce to include women and under‐represented minorities and advancing the development of researchers at many stages of their careers. Some of the Implementation items require further detail. For example,
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10 Review of the NSF AGS Draft Goals and Objectives Document "Identify and remedy bottlenecks and ‘leaky pipeline' issues" ‐ how does AGS intend to do this? The section on Competent and Diverse Workforce is largely a repetition of the prior Implementation list, and it is not clear what this adds to the Document. Finally, the section on Future Investment is focused mainly on undergraduate education, though it is not articulated why this is the priority for future investment over the other areas of career development. This goal is quite comprehensive, with a long list of ongoing activities. However, the discussion of the goal would be strengthened if it included: An assessment of the effectiveness of the different existing programs including those that were designed to broaden participation by women and under‐represented minorities. A description of AGS activities and priorities in the context of growing needs for a scientific workforce with capabilities in new model development, new instrument development, the use of large datasets (analysis and visualization)
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Review of the NSF AGS Draft Goals and Objectives Document 11 Each goal description (except for the one on workforce) simply lists other agencies that may cooperate with AGS to attain identified goals. Such a list does not give adequate specificity to be actionable in an AGS planning document. The goal to "understand the sun and geospace environment as a coupled system" is the most comprehensive of all the goals in describing coordination mechanisms. It includes a description of the interdisciplinary and interagency aspects of solar‐terrestrial research and space weather efforts that will be needed in the future, as described in the 2013‐2022 Decadal Survey in Solar and Space Physics (NRC, 2012)
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12 Review of the NSF AGS Draft Goals and Objectives Document coordination is also addressed in NRC (2011) , the Document should include a summary of principles that guide leveraging international opportunities in a coordinated way. Interagency and interdivisional collaboration is crucial to future AGS success and clear examples of collaboration modes should be cited for each goal in the Document. FUTURE DIRECTIONS OF AGS There are a number of areas where AGS can provide leadership on future integrated research challenges, but where potential roles for AGS are not articulated in the Document. The future challenges not only cut across sections within AGS, but also link with other parts of NSF and other federal agencies. Box 1 includes examples of the cross‐cutting and/or high‐level issues that might be included in the Document. These examples are illustrative and not intended to be representative of all the research AGS supports. They reflect just a few of the cross‐cutting issues that were discussed at the workshop6. As noted in NRC 2007, AGS is operating in a research environment that is ever more multi‐disciplinary, interagency, and international, making a more strategic approach necessary to manage activities in a way that actively engages the atmospheric sciences community. Since the beginning of basic research programs in atmospheric and geospace science, the science has evolved dramatically from single process studies to the examination of the Sun and Earth as an interconnected system. This has been enabled by enhanced observations and informatics techniques in addition to advances in complex numerical simulations. The goals and objectives document has the potential to reflect a more forward‐ looking, integrative approach that captures the future research challenges and unifies the Division. Sincerely, Susan K. Avery, Chair On behalf of the Committee to Review the NSF AGS Draft Science Goals and Objectives 6 Other cross‐cutting issues that were raised at the workshop are included in the recap which was provided to AGS.
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Review of the NSF AGS Draft Goals and Objectives Document 13 BOX 1 Cross‐Cutting Issues Science at interfaces: It was clear from the workshop discussions that a large number of the science questions facing the community involve multiple components of the Earth‐Sun system (e.g. air‐sea interaction, exchanges between the land surface and atmosphere, interactions between the atmosphere and the cryosphere, and influences of the Sun on the Earth's atmosphere and surface) . The Document does not articulate the role of AGS in ongoing and future research at these critical interfaces. AGS is in a unique position to take a "systems" approach to addressing some of these issues, and the committee encourages AGS to adopt this approach when describing the Division's goals and objectives. Weather and climate across time and space scales: A recent well documented trend is the recognition that the same processes, observing systems, and modeling methods are relevant to both weather and climate research (e.g., Palmer and Webster, 1995; WCRP, 2005; Hurrell et al., 2009; NRC, 2010; Hoskins, 2013)
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