Computing the Future A Broader Agenda for Computer Science and Engineering (1992) / Chapter Skim
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1 COMPUTING-SIGNIFICANCE, STATUS, CHALLENGES
1 COMPUTING-SIGNIFICANCE, STATUS, CHALLENGES
Pages 13-54
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From page 13... ...
· In automobile engineering, computing makes it possible to simulate automobile crash tests that would otherwise cost hundreds of thousands of dollars apiece.2 · In the oil industry, computing has saved hundreds of millions 13
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From page 17... ...
Today, the software sector is the most rapidly growing and profitable sector of the industry, as illustrated by its 19 percent growth rate in 1990 over 1989 levels versus a 9 percent growth rate in the industry overall.4 Yet software itself consumes no material, weighs nothing, and requires essentially no power.5 Software is information crystallized in a particular form, and in this form it is valued at over $20 billion per year by the United Statesand this estimate excludes the substantial amounts of custom software developed "in house" by computer users. Other examples of the increasing importance of information include the entertainment industry (over $12 billion in sales in 1990 by five major entertainment
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From page 18... ...
Universities themselves are retrenching; the computer industry is undergoing substantial and rapid restructuring; and the increasingly apparent utility of computing in all aspects of society is creating demands for computing technology that is more powerful and easier to use. In light of these changes, the Committee to Assess the Scope and Direction of Computer Science and Technology was convened to determine how best to organize the conduct of research and teaching in CS&E for the future.
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From page 19... ...
The key intellectual themes in CS&E are algorithmic thinking, the representation of information, and computer programs. An algorithm is an unambiguous sequence of steps for processing information, arid computer scientists and engineers tend to believe in an algorithmic approach to solving problems.
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From page 20... ...
A circle to be drawn on a display screen may be more conveniently represented as a set of points, whereas an equation may be a better representation if a problem calls for determining if a given point lies inside or outside the circle. A computer program expresses algorithms and structures information using a programming language.
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From page 21... ...
As Ivan Sutherland, the father of computer graphics, has said, Through computer displays I have landed an airplane on the deck of a moving carrier, observed a nuclear particle hit a potential well, flown in a rocket at nearly the speed of light, and watched a computer reveal its innermost workings.~4 Programming is an enormously challenging intellectual activity. Apart from deciding on appropriate algorithms and representations of information, perhaps the most fundamental issue in developing computer programs arises from the fact that the computer (unlike other similar devices such as non-programmable calculators)
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From page 22... ...
The problem is that the number of possible paths grows very rapidly with the number of decisions: a program with only 10 "yes" or "no" decisions can have over 1000 possible paths, and one with 20 such decisions can have over 1 million. Algorithmic thinking, information representation, and computer programs are themes central to all subfields of CS&E research.
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From page 23... ...
Those who design computer languages (item two in Box 1.4) with which people write programs also concern themselves with algorithms and information representation.
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From page 24... ...
As importantly, the internals of modern word-processing systems depend on a host of algorithms and data structures investigated in the course of CS&E research: automata theory, dynamic programming, constraint satisfaction, incremental updating, partial-match retrieval, data compression. Spreadsheets, though not first conceptualized by computer scientists, also depend on many of these algorithms, data structures, and concepts for efficient implementation on personal computers.
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From page 25... ...
For example, the speed with which certain types of partial differential equations may be solved has improved by a factor of around 10~i since 1945 (Figure 1.1) , due in about equal measure to faster machines developed by computer engineers and better algorithms developed by mathematicians and theoretical computer scientists.
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From page 26... ...
In each case, the best modern practices to which implementors instinctively turn have been explored and codified by CS&E. Theoretical computer scientists studying computational complexity with mathematical tools have had a major impact on computer security.
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From page 28... ...
This concern generates opportunities for computer scientists and engineers to investigate the development of even newer technologies that deliver more of the benefits but with fewer of the attendant costs. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AND CS&E RESEARCH The history of CS&E in both academia and industry reflects the strong influence of strategic investments by federal agencies.
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From page 29... ...
Without these investments, the computer industry and indeed the information revolution would have taken off much more slowly. While the nature and allocation of federal investment in CS&E have changed over the past four decades, the substantial rise in constant dollars of federal obligations in the last 15 years suggests that the development of advanced computing capabilities through the support of CS&E research is increasingly understood by the federal government to be essential to the missions of many government agencies as well as to the welfare of the nation.
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From page 30... ...
Defense National Science Foundation National Aeronautics and Space Administration Energy Commerce Interior Environmental Protection Agency Transportation Agency for International Development Treasury Health and Human Services Agriculture Education Housing and Urban Development Federal Communications Commission Other Agenciesa TOTAL 418.7 122.7 52.2 33.3 18.4 11.4 8.3 6.1 3.6 1.7 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.1 680.6 62 80 87 92 95 96 98 99 99 99 00 00 00 00 00 3,805 1,847 3,463 2,963 444 549 343 146 290 22 8,201 1,177 157 11 631 24,051 NOTE: Table reflects the final disposition of federal obligations for FY 1991, including congressional action and administration budget reprogrammings in response to congressional action. Figures for "computer science" are assumed to include computer engineering.
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From page 31... ...
for all recipients taken from Federal Fundsfor Research and Development (Federal Obligations for Research by Agency and Detailed Field of Science/Engineering: Fiscal Years 1969-1990) , Division of Science Resource Studies, National Science Foundation.
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From page 32... ...
The NSF is the primary supporter of academic research in CS&E, as measured by the number of individual investigators supported. It also contributes the second largest share of federal obligations to CS&E research, and almost all of that support goes to academia.
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SOURCE: Basic data (in then-year dollars) for all recipients and academia were taken from the corresponding sources cited in the caption for Figure 1.2.
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From page 34... ...
Thus the level and adequacy of federal funding for CS&E continue to be a source of major concern to academic computer scientists and engineers. In the last year, a program that cuts across the entire federal government was begun that is expected to have a major impact on federal funding for CS&E.
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From page 35... ...
(NREN) and eventual transition of this network to commercial service; and · Human resources and basic research efforts will focus on expanding basic research in all areas of computer science and technology relevant to high-performance computing and increasing the base of skilled personnel.22 At this writing, the HPCC Program has strong presidential support, and the Congress has authorized most parts of the HPCC Pro
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From page 36... ...
The magnitude of the requested increase for FY 1993, as well as the fact that the HPCC Program for FY 1992 was actually funded at an overall level higher than that proposed by the administration, is a clear recognition of the importance of high-performance computing and communications to national goals.26 However, given the central role that NSF plays in supporting the academic CS&E community, considerable concern within this community has been raised regarding the fact that the NSF portion of the HPCC Program was funded below the requested level. Overall, future federal funding trends are uncertairr.
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The HPCC Program recognizes that major improvements in computing performance relevant to these grand challenges will be possible only through high-level collaboration among computer scientists and engineers and scientists and engineers in the relevant areas. One result has been that mission ~ ~ ~ ~.
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From page 38... ...
The Unix operating system and the C programming language originated at Bell Laboratories; however, Berkeley computer scientists have extended and modified the original concepts into a new version of Unix that now enjoys wide acceptance as the basis for highly interoperable and portable open software systems. In short, ideas first nascent in the industrial sector have often given impetus to academic research in CS&E.
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From page 39... ...
They may seek knowledge for its own sake, circumscribed in part by the availability of funding, but are not necessarily bound by the need to translate TABLE 1.4 Computing Innovations to Which Industry Has Contributed Innovation Companies Contributing to Related CS&E Research Fortran Unix operating system, C programming language Workstations Microprocessors Supercomputers Minicomputers Local area networks Reduced-instruction-set computing (RISCs) Relational databases IBM AT&T Bell Laboratories Xerox Palo Alto Research Center Intel Cray Research Digital Equipment Corporation Xerox; IBM; Bolt, Beranek, and Newman IBM IBM
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From page 40... ...
, database technology (from the need to manage large volumes of data) , computer security and encryption (from the need to ensure privacy)
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From page 41... ...
The literature on technology transfer is vast, and a comprehensive examination of technology transfer issues is far beyond the scope of this report; Box 1.9 describes some of the issues posed by technology transfer for the computer industry. Still, in its examination of technology transfer in the context of academic CS&E, the committee identified one point as particularly ~1111111 ..
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From page 42... ...
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From page 43... ...
Thus successful cooperative efforts will tend to involve minimal restrictions on academic publication, e.g., delays in publication of at most a few months. In practice, such limitations may have little practical significance either to academics34 (since preparing a paper for publication often lags the obtaining of research results by several months to a year or more in any event, and the appearance of a paper in print often takes another six months or more)
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From page 44... ...
, other concerns arise with respect to the knowledge gained through or with that software, the conflict between possible patent or copyright rights of the people who wrote that software versus the people who financed it versus the people who use it, and the granting of recognition to those who have done the work while protecting the entrepreneurial rights of the sponsors. As one example, many companies in the computer industry cross-license their patents with one another to ease the process of bringing individual products to market.
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From page 45... ...
And, although today's computer industry was built primarily on the sales of large mainframe computers to a relatively few institutions, the computing environment of the future will emphasize to a much greater extent computers as consumer-oriented items tools for the masses. In this environment, computing technology both hardware and software will be specialized for intellectual work in much the same way that electric motors are specialized for physical work it will be invisible but ubiquitous.
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From page 46... ...
to facilitate shorter response times will be necessary, especially for the now labor-intensive software sector. Finally, greater concerns about competitiveness will increase financial pressures on the computer industry, just as they affect all other industry.
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From page 47... ...
For example, according to the Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel of the National Research Council, U.S.
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From page 48... ...
Apart from the difficulties that all academic disciplines will face in matters such as faculty hiring, academic CS&E departments will face particular problems in maintaining infrastructure to meet the field's research needs. As noted earlier, many research problems in CS&E are driven and motivated by the upper bounds of performance at the cutting edge of computing technology (whether these edges result from sophisticated new components or novel arrangements of older components)
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From page 49... ...
But after several decades of vigor and growth, the CS&E field is facing a very different environment. Academic computer scientists and engineers the primary group addressed in this report will have to cope with a host of new challenges, some arising from the remarkable successes of the discipline (e.g., the spread of computing to virtually all walks of life)
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From page 50... ...
17. Gary Hart and Barry Goldwater, Recent False Alerts from the Nation's Missile Attack Warning System, Report to the Senate Armed Services Committee, U.S.
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From page 51... ...
. But neither the legislation nor its legislative history mention these specific goals, except to specify that the Congress expects the HPCC Program to be similar to that presented in the 1989 report (Senate Commerce Committee, High-Performance Computing Act of 1991: Report of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, Report 102-57, U.S.
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From page 52... ...
29. Office of Science and Technology Policy, The Federal High Performance Computing Program, Executive Office of the President, Washington, D.C., September 8, 1989, p.
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From page 53... ...
However, according to common rules of thumb, research costs tend to be perhaps a tenth of development costs, which are themselves perhaps several percent of gross revenues. Thus the figure of "several hundred million" per year spent on CS&E research is not grossly inconsistent with the $153 billion per year in sales of the computer industry reported by CBEMA in Note 9 above.
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From page 54... ...
39. This compact is best described in Vannevar Bush, Science the Endless Frontier, NSF-90-8, National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C., 1945/1990: "Scientific progress on a broad front results from the free play of free intellects, working on subjects of their own choice, in the manner dictated by their curiosity for exploration of the unknown" (p.
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