The National Energy Modeling System (1992) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix D: Illustrative Case Studies
Appendix D: Illustrative Case Studies
Pages 119-128
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From page 119... ...
Case Study ~ relates to automobile fuel economy standards, Case Study 2 to natural gas pipeline certification, and Case Study 3 to R&D program planning for magneticallylevitated ITains. They resulted In some general insights about what a NEMS could and could not be expected to provide as explained later.
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From page 120... ...
But if the market fails to perform as microeconomic theory would hold, or if significant costs or benefits are not reflected in market prices for energy or energy services, then carefully designed government policies can improve economic efficiency. Thus, a necessary condition for government intervention in the market is the existence of significant market failures or externalities.
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From page 121... ...
A consumer choice model that win estimate the effect on auto demand caused by changes in efficiency and auto pnces, gasoline prices, safety, and other relevant variables; and; 5. A travel demand model that will estimate the eject of st=dards on fuel consumption aIld, together with Aid, the effect on consumer surplus.
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From page 122... ...
CASE STUDY 2: NATURAL GAS PIPELINE CERTIFICATION Establishing the Need for Policy Intervention This problem arose In the foDow~ng context. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC)
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From page 123... ...
The American Gas Association model and the models used by the Gas Research Institute are examples of relatively comprehensive models of natural gas supply and demand that are continually updated and validated in an open fomm by competent modelers backed by a comprehensive data base and adequate budgets. Many other such models exist and are operated by public agencies, private interest groups and third park modelers and consultants.
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From page 124... ...
Natural gas burner tip price minimization with fuel switching requires larger models and significantly more data. As soon as real world considerations of ~externalities" including environmental factors in production, transportation and consumption; treaties and trade policy with other sovereign countries; regional political considerations, etc.
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From page 125... ...
In some cases, merely structuring the decision to involve a benefit cost equation will be a step forward that modelling can help achieve. While a national energy modeDing system can be useful In helping to evaluate R&D projects, it cannot provide a complete answer, because many of the calculations that are necessary -- even energy modeDing calculations -- wiD require additional detail that is not appropriate to put into ache NEMS.
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From page 126... ...
These needs would be contained at some level of disaggregation in the transport module of the NEMS. Possible disaggregations include separation into urban, suburban, and inner city travel, separation of inner city travel by trip distance or by region or by transportation corridor, and possibly down to the consolidated metropolitan statistical area (CMSA)
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From page 127... ...
This more detailed analysis off-line should consider a number of issues regarding MAGLEV including its benefits or disbenefits In convenience relative to competing modes, includillg conventional rail, European or Japanese starve high-speed rail, automobile, and air travel. Such discussions would include dimensions of analyzing which corridors MAGLEV would be appropriate in, whether MAGLEV would have capacity advantages within that common compared to other options, whether capacity expansions of airports or highways would be needed without MAGLEV in that corridor and the relative capital costs of those options, and related land-use issues.
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From page 128... ...
O NEMS should integrate additional detail only as the repetitive need is demonstrated, but it should be improved to remain consistent with detailed analysis once it is validated. O NEMS modules should be designed to accommodate added detail, but all detail must not be added to NEMS and NEMS may have a role in analysis where off-line analyses are also needed.
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