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Appendix D: Research Needs in Anticipation of Future Environmental Problems
Pages 153-172

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From page 153...
... Appendix D Research Needs in Anticipation Of Future Environmental Problems A Workshop Report
From page 155...
... Environmental organizations should consider establishing new units Charged with an anticipatory, exploratory responsibility. Past attempts sum as EPA's Washington Environmental Research Center should be examined as possll'1e models, as should programs in other environmental organizations, in the United States and in other countries.
From page 156...
... Several key elements of a mowtonng program are: a multidisciplinary advisory panel; ~nventones of resources, emi~ions/discharges, chemical apse, and other vital statistics of societal and ~ndus~ial acting, social, economic, and technological trend data; and active research, mo~ieling, and diagnostic programs to assess environmental conditions now and ~ the future. A program to manage physical phenomena should establish baseline conditions in the biotic and abiotic components of the environment; quantifier trends in pollutant concentrations In the environment and In the condition of ecological resources; define the magnitude, rate, extent, and location of changes; and provide data to allow relationships between anthropogen~caDy induced changes and alterations in the quality and quantity of biotic systems to be determined Three key social and economic areas that need to be monitored are environmental consequences of human behavior, impact of management and regulatory initiatives, and the relations between societal values and environmental e~pectadons.
From page 157...
... Such a program will require well des~ed environ mental monitoring to establish baselines from which environmental changes can be measured and then followed. It will need ongoing studies of the Hanging social situation, the public's expectations for environmental management, "d the outcomes of environn~ental interventions.
From page 159...
... The question Is what areas of resewn to pursue now so that Her 5, 10, 20, or more years, society will be in a better position to identify and respond to serious environmental problems. Past Anticipatory Research Efforts Past attempts to improve our ability to anticipate and respond to environmental problems, beginning with the 1965 report Restoring He squalid of the EnYironm~, by the President's Science Add y Committee, have had limited success.
From page 160...
... IDENTIFICATION OF ARISING PROBLEMS Any sound env~ro~ental program for the future needs to establish baselines for the current situations, recognize and follow changes, provide warning, and determine the seriousness of emerging threats. This kind of program requires the mon~tonag of physical and social phenomena.
From page 161...
... Issues of scale, measurement frequency, variability within and among systems, and desired precision, to mention a few considerations, all need to be evaluated with the aim of improving efficiency and consequently reducing costs of mon~tonng. In addition, as global' national regional, subregional, and local environmental problems need to be considered, coordinated Resins for monitoring programs are warranted, because they provide Be~n~bili~ In making appropriate measurements at correspondingly appropriate scales while achieving mom aggregation and disaggregation options for exploratory analyses of the data collected Societal and Economic Monitoring The desk of long-term exploratory research programs must take into account the societal and economic trends that will generate new environmental problems or change He
From page 162...
... Thus, the value of protective actions Is customarily measured by reference to health and injury effects, direct economic impacts, and effects on a Juan number of specific, measurable ennronn~ental masticators. This range of ejects omits many issues relevant to public values and concerns and thus conmbutes to the seemingly perplexing divergence between the evaluation of the importance of problems by public agencies "d the public's responses.
From page 163...
... · Regional, national global levels. Most biomonitoring programs have been desired to assess local environmental concerns, but regional, national, and global scales of concern must also be addressee New assessment and measurement approaches designed to address environmental issues at these levels may need to be developed.
From page 164...
... I he possibility of values and behavior changing over the new several decades should be encored, and the implications of such changes on the perception of environmental problems and the effectiveness of alternative management strategies should be studied · Assessment of the nation's capability to deal with major environmental problems in terms of behavioral and value constraints. T'nis assessment should specifically identify human values or behaviors that are most amenable to cl~at.ges designed to increase human or environmental protection and those that are most resistant to change.
From page 165...
... Therefore, workshop participants recommended that a data management system be developed With the responsl~bil~ to integrate venous data sets. IWO POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: ADVANCED MATERIAIS AND RENEWABLE ENERGY The introduction of any major new technology should be preceded by environmental and societal impact analysis of the process, the manufacturing materials, and the products and byproducts, according to workshop participants.
From page 166...
... Workshop participants identified two emerging areas~renewable energy and advance materials - There consideration of environmental consequences before implementation might alleviate problems In the future. Renviable Energy The possibilities of significant increases in the use of renewable energy sources have been expanded through technology, for example, more efficient transm~on of hydroelectric energy if superconducting became commerciaDy fee.
From page 167...
... Workshop participants noted that renewable energy and advanced materials are examples of areas In which ongoing research Is needed so that potentially negative consequences of large scale use of biotechnology implementation can be determined DESIGN FOR AN EXPLORATORY RESEARCH PROGRAM To some event, the reasons for the poor performance of the scientific con~m~ty In antic~padng environmental problems can be identified, according to workshop participants. Some of these reasons are discussed below.
From page 168...
... Objectives of an Anticipatory Research Program The overall goal is to improve our ability to manage the environment by developing capability to anticipate and respond effectively to environmental problems. That is, the goal is to develop the fundamental understanding and the analytical methods and tools nettled to achieve designated environmental objectives.
From page 169...
... M=y talented undergraduate chemists, biologists, and engineers would be interested in environmental careers if they perceived (1) the intellectual and scientific challenges in the environmental sciences, (23 the opportunity to have a significant effect on protecting the environment and ameliorating environmental cont~ation, and (33 the Opportunities for career developments Existing environmental programs have an reed ~-espons~i~ to give vomit to environmental careers and to avail the profession of a larger diversified applicant pooL A fellowship program to support graduate students and postdoctoral fellows would make an important contribution to this goat _ ..
From page 170...
... Such a program will require welB-designed environmental monitoring to establish baselines Tom which environmental changes can be measured and then followed. The program will need ongoing studies of the changing social situation, the public expectations for environmental management, and the outcomes of env~romnental interventions.
From page 171...
... Workshop Participants Research Needs in Anticipadon of Future EnuronmeDtal Problems Woods Hole, Massachusetts June 14 and IS, 1989 Donald Hornig, Chair, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts William Ascher, Duke Institute for Policy Sciences, Durham Russell Christman, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill William Clark, Harvard University, Cambridge Jangles M Davidson, Un~vers~q of Flon" GamesviDe Kenneth Dickson, University of North Texas, Denton John R


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