Teacher Supply, Demand, and Quality Policy Issues, Models, and Data Bases (1992) / Chapter Skim
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PART V DATA BASES
PART V DATA BASES
Pages 225-284
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Supplementary material describing relevant national data bases is contained in Appendix B and the identification of variables relevant to TSDQ models and research contained in these national data bases is reported in Appendix C
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But state information systems are designed for a multitude of purposes, such as reporting data to federal agencies, monitoring the quality of teachers hired by local districts, and analyzing teacher supply and demand in the state. The Council of Chief State School Officers (CCSSO)
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If state data are to be considered as a source for national analyses of the teaching force or for projections of teacher supply and demand, it is important to consider the availability, quality, and utility of state teacher data. This paper addresses the following four questions concerning state data on elementary and secondary teachers in public schools: (1)
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Teacher Supply: New college graduates in education New graduates with non-education majors and certified to teach In-migration of teachers from other states Re-entrants into teaching Entrants from other occupations Continuing teachers/teacher attrition Continuing teachers in new subject/field Teachers retiring New Hires: Occupation prior year Location of occupation prior year 49 48 43 48 40 47 44 47 40 41 40 40 25 36 23 13 37 22 36 41 31 47 33 20 27 21 17 32 27 37 10 SOURCE: State Science/Mathematics Indicators Project, 1987 (unpublished data)
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The items listed in Table 1 under Teacher Demand and Teacher Supply may be from several data sources at the state level, including student membership counts by grade and higher education data, as well as from computations or analyses of data on the current teacher file, such as identifying the source of new hires. In 1987, 34 states reported having developed estimates of teacher shortages or supply and demand, but states were not asked to identify which of the data elements were used in these estimates.
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However, there are states that use few editing procedures and the quality of the data could be questioned. Another issue is the comparability of teacher data between states due to differing definitions of teacher characteristics.
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For the CCSSO Science/ Mathematics Indicators Project, 43 states reported data on teacher characteristics for the preceding school year by the end of July. LINKED TEACHER DATA FROM STATES Table 1 reports the number of states that collect and file data on elements of teacher quality, demand, and supply.
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Field Alabama Field by A,S,R Yes Yes, link Alaska No No No Arizona Subject by S,R No No Arkansas Field by A,S,R Yes Yes, link California Field by A,S,R Yes Yes, link Colorado Subject by A,S,R Yes No Connecticut Field by A,S,R Yes Yes, link Delaware Field by A,S,R Yes Yes District of Columbia No No Yes Florida Field No Yes, link Georgia No No No Hawaii Field by A,S,R No Yes, link Idaho Field by A,S,R Yes Yes Illinois Field by A,S,R Yes Yes, 5 yrs. Indiana Field by A,S,R No Yes Iowa Field by A,S,R No Yes, link Kansas Field by A,S,R No Yes Kentucky Field by A,S,R Yes Yes, link Louisiana Field No Yes Maine Field by A,S,R No No Maryland Subject by A,S,R Yes No Massachusetts Field No No Michigan Field by A,S,R No No Minnesota Field by A,S Yes Yes, link Mississippi Field by A,S,R Yes Yes, link Missouri Field by A,S,R Yes Yes, link Montana Field by A,S,R Yes Yes Nebraska No No Yes Nevada Field by A,S,R Yes Yes, link New Hampshire Field by S No No New Jersey Field by A,S,R Yes No New Mexico Field by A,S,R Yes Yes New York Field by A,S Yes Yes, link North Carolina Field by A,S,R Yes Yes, link North Dakota Field by A,S,R Yes Yes, link Ohio Field by A,S,R Yes Yes, link Oklahoma Field by A,S,R Yes Yes Oregon Field by A,S Yes No Pennsylvania Field by A,S,R Yes Yes Rhode Island Field by A,S,R Yes No South Carolina Field by A,S,R Yes Yes, link South Dakota Field by A,S Yes No Tennessee Field by A,S Yes Yes continued on next page
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. Indicators of Current Teacher Supply States reported data on the total number of teachers assigned to teach science, math, and computer science in grades 9-12 as of October 1, 1989.
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States with more small, rural districts, such as Arkansas, Oklahoma, and North Dakota had fewer teachers with primary assignments in any of the science fields, while states with a greater proportion of urban and suburban districts, such as Connecticut, New York, and Pennsylvania, have more teachers with primary assignments in the science fields. Age of Science and Mathematics Teachers Although the state science and mathematics indicators do not include detailed projections of teacher supply and demand, the age distributions of current science and mathematics teachers provide useful information on possible shortage fields as teachers near retirement age.
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The age distribution for mathematics and science teachers can be compared with the age statistics for all high school teachers as reported to the project from state data systems. A total of 21 percent of all high school teachers are over 50, and 10 percent are under 30.
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The state data show that, except for Hawaii, no state has representation of minority teachers similar to the racial/ethnic background of students. Indicators of Teacher Qualifications in Subject Area A state-by-state indicator of teacher qualifications is the proportion of science and mathematics teachers who are not state certified in their field, i.e., teaching "out of field." State-collected data on teacher assignments by certification status as of October 1, 1989, were reported to CCSSO.
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Thirty states reported results of cross-tabulating state data on teacher assignments by teacher certification status. The percentages of teachers assigned in high school mathematics and science that are not state certified are as follows: 9 percent of mathematics teachers, 8 percent of biology teachers, 8 percent of chemistry teachers, and 12 percent of physics teachers.
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The number of science and mathematics teachers in each teaching field can be compared with the number of high schools in a state to approximate the proportion of schools that are able to offer science and mathematics courses in each field. Accordingly, a state-level indicator of course coverage in science and mathematics is the ratio of high schools in a state to the number of teachers assigned in each teaching field.
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SUMMARY This paper has summarized the breadth of available state data on teacher supply, equity, and qualifications. A high proportion of states collect and store data on many of the desired data elements.
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U.S. Department of Educa National Research Council, Committee on National Statistics 1987 Toward Understanding Teacher Supply and Demand: Priorities for Research and Development.
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, having completed the study on educator supply and demand in Massachusetts in 1987, was selected to undertake work toward these objectives. Success of the project hinged on its endorsement by the education commissioners of the seven states in the region.
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DATA COLLECTION AND DATA PROCESSING State administrative records are primarily used for specific accounting purposes. In many states, the educator data are rarely, if ever, examined in a longitudinal fashion.
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. Of administrative records.
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A final issue is that the statistics generated from administrative records reveal the influence of policy changes. Thus, it is critical to recover the policy history of a state in order to understand patterns in the data.
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UTILITY OF ADMINISTRATIVE DATA FOR EDUCATOR SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND QUALITY MODELS A regional data base offers numerous opportunities to answer questions about educator work force dynamics. In certain respects, a regional data base is superior to national data bases in that it can provide detail at the district and, in many cases, at the school level.
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Although many elements of educator supply and demand can be modeled with existing administrative records, some basic questions cannot be answered. From administrative records there are ample data to estimate retention and attrition rates.
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In examining administrative records, one can observe the dynamics of education at the district, state, and regional levels. However, we need district-level data that go beyond salary differentials and urban/rural classification.
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1987 Academic ability, earnings, and the decision to become a teacher: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972. In David A
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y y y y y n Y Salary y y y y y y y Assignments y n y y y y y Enrollments School n y n y y y y Year y y y y y y y County y y n y y y y Town y y y y y y y Grades y y y y Y Y Y Percent minority n y n n y n n Dropout rate n y n n y n n
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JAMES M WILSON III AND DAVID Q UINBY APPENDIX B Years of Data by State and Data Base State Databases Years CT Births 74-87 Enrollments 77-87 Certifications 72-88 Active teachers 77-87 MA Births b8-~8 Enrollments 68-88 Certifications 72-88 Retirement board data 73-87 ME Births 74-87 Enrollments 79-87 Certifications 73-89 Active teachers 74-88 NH Births 79-~S Enrollments 84-88 Certifications 72-89 Retirement board data 68-88 Active teachers 88-89 NY Births 60-88 Enrollments 67-88 Certifications 82-88 Active teachers 68-89 RI Births 70-87 Enrollments 75-88 Certifications 84-90 Retirement board data 79-88 Active teachers 89-90 vt Births 74-87 Enrollments 77-87 Certifications 74-88 Active teachers 79-87 251
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252 DEVELOPING A REGIONAL DATA BASE APPENDIX C Categories Suggested by Certification Working Group General Categories 1 Agriculture 2 3 4 s 6 7 8 9 10 Librarian & media specialist 11 Mathematics 12 Marketing 13 Music 14 Physical education 15 Reading 16 Technology education 17 Other 75 Humanities 76 Bilingual Spanish 77 Bilingual other Art Business Early childhood Elementary English English: second language Health Home economics Science 18 Biology 19 Chemistry 20 Earth/space science 21 General science 22 Physics 23 Other Social Science 24 Anthropology 25 Economics 26 Geography 27 History 28 Political science 29 Psychology 30 Social studies 31 Sociology 32 Other Languages 33 Asian 34 _ 35 36 37 38 39 Spanish 40 Other Vocational Education 41 Agricultural occupations 42 Health occupations 43 Office occupations 44 Technology subjects 45 Trade subjects 46 Other Special Education 47 Blind 48 Deaf 49 Early childhood 50 Elementary 51 Generic 52 Intensive 53 Secondary 54 Speech & hearing; 55 Other Administrators 56 Principal 57 Assistant principal 58 Elementary principal 59 Secondary principal 60 Teaching principal 61 School business administrator 62 Special education director 63 Superintendent 64 Assistant superintendent 65 Associate superintendent 66 Supervisor/director 67 Vocational education director 68 Other Support Staff 69 Guidance 70 Nurse/teacher 71 School nurse 72 School psychologist 73 Social worker 74 Other Classical French German Italian Russian
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A number of such data files are reviewed in a recently published book by members of the research staff at the Educational Testing Service (Hilton et al., 1992~; these files are listed here in Table 1. This paper will review and comment on several of these national data bases that have tended to be neglected in research on teacher supply, demand, and quality.
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Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) American College Testing Service National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972 College Entrance Examination Board Admissions Testing Program (Scholastic Aptitude Test, Achievement tests, Advanced Placement Examinations)
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The most valuable of this information for teacher supply and demand are the items on the major field of the students' undergraduate study and the major field of their intended graduate study. Although these data are not routinely made available, arrangements can be made with the GRE program directors to obtain permission of the GRE board to use the data for only the cost of retrieving it.
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With respect to national data bases, I will conclude with comments on the National Teacher Examinations (NTE)
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:v~; :::S.S:::S:...::::::S:~:::::::. X;S:::::.:: :: ::,::S::S..~:S::S::'.55..i.~ i' I: .ii A:::::: FIGURE 1 Selected annual and longitudinal data bases.
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Not only would such a model help us to decide whether a particular set of data is relevant, but it would also suggest data that may be missing from a particular data file data that might be critical to investigations to be conducted by means of the data. With the assistance of an adequate model of teacher supply and demand, future researchers would be able to be much more discriminating in choosing data files than they could without such a model.
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As is widely recognized, this is a very complex topic. I know of no national data bases fully adequate for investigations of the characteristics of teachers related to effective teaching.
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While we're on the subject of computerized data collection in the future, I see no reason why data relevant to teacher quality and some other teacher supply and demand variables cannot be obtained on line from classrooms throughout the country. The technology of electronic networking is highly developed.
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Washington, D.C.: National Center for Education Statistics. U.S.Department of Defense 1976 ASVAB Specimen Test.
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RICHARD J MURNANE The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how the administrative records of state departments of education can be used to inform a number of questions related to teacher supply.
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The Trend in the Racial Composition of the Pool of Licensees In many states there is growing concern that the representation of minority group members in the nation's teaching force is declining at the same time that the proportion of students who are minority group members is growing. One part of a strategy to identify the causes of this trend is to track the proportion of new licensees who are minority group members.
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c: 15 a) 10 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 License Year \ 1980 1981 1982 FIGURE 2 Percentage of new teaching licenses granted by North Carolina to black college graduates in each year from 1975 to 1982.
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It also indicates that counts of the number of licensed teachers that do not distinguish between types of licensure are likely to be poor indicators of potential teacher supply. A number of states, including California, Connecticut, and New Jersey, have introduced alternative routes to obtaining a teaching license.
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by Subject Specialty, Controlling for Age, Gender, and Race Subject Specialty Michigan North Carolina Elementary 5.9 11.0+ Secondary 3.9 7.8 Biology 4~5 5~9 Social Studies 4.0 8.8 English 3.7 6.4 Mathematics 3.6 11.0+ Chemistry/physics 2.2 5.6 school teachers, those teaching chemistry and physics tend to have particularly short teaching careers. As explained in Who Will Teach?
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2.87 - $2,000 (L) 2.00 -_ ~ 0.04 0.00 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Years of Teaching Completed 267 FIGURE 3 Risk of leaving teaching for three entering secondary school teachers in Michigan: in average, low, and high salary streams.
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Although the likelihood of a return declines the longer a teacher is out of the classroom, the probabilities cumulate so that, in both states, 1 out of every 4 teachers who leave teaching returns within 5 years. Thus, returning teachers have been an important source of teacher supply.
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TABLE 2 Predicted Probabilities of a Return to Teaching in North Carolina and Michigan Within 5 Years of Terminating a First Teaching Spell, by Subject Specialty Subject Specialty Michigan North Carolina Elementary .29 .31 Secondary .24 .24 Social Studies .28 .29 Biology .26 .22 English .23 .25 Mathematics .21 .21 Chemistry/physics .16 .17
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In contrast, only 1 in 6 chemistry and physics teachers returns within 5 years. SUMMARY The examples provided in this brief paper illustrate only some of the ways data collected routinely by state departments of education can be used to inform questions related to teacher supply.
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ISSUES FOR FURTHER RESEARCH Several topics that merit further research are: · Specific supply and demand analysis for math and science teachers, · Supply and demand analysis for minority teachers, · Effects of early retirement offers on teacher demand, · Effects of the declining number of returning and migrating teachers on the demand for teachers, and · Supply and attrition of high-quality teachers. Each of these topics is discussed in the following sections.
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However, all three studies find that attrition rates for mathematics teachers are much lower than those for science teachers, although still above the average for all teachers. These studies all use entering cohort survival as the basis for their conclusions.
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Science and math teachers return much less frequently than other types of teachers (Murnane et al., 1989; Grissmer and Kirby, 1991~. This means that annual attrition rates for science and mathematics teachers could be similar or even lower, but the lower return rates would make permanent attrition rates higher for science teachers.
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entering cohorts of science and math teachers teach other subjects or (b) individuals who were not initially certified in science and math are teaching these subjects, then the attrition rates for the state and national data could be different.
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. Some joint analysis of these two larger states with the SASS and TFS data would provide a much clearer picture of minority teacher supply and demand behavior.
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Teacher migration also peaks during the 25-35 age span. Since there are going to be fewer teachers in this age span as the teaching force ages, there will be fewer returning and migrating teachers to fill vacancies.
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within specialty categories can be a problem. The main drawback for analyzing teacher supply and demand issues is that it contains no time-series data, and therefore trends in key variables cannot be tracked.
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In addition, state data are the only available data from which timeseries and long-term longitudinal data can be constructed. Such data, as opposed to data collected at a single point in time, are critical to assessments of teacher supply and demand.
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Moreover it is usually impossible to compare results derived from independent teacher supply and demand models because of different model specifications and variable definitions. This type of analysis would also allow us to identify key differences caused by par .
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and P.C. Schlechty 1982 The distribution of academic ability in the teaching force: Policy implications.
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Several factors cause development of a teacher data base within a particular state to be difficult, time-consuming, and expensive. These factors include the sheer volume of detailed information available from multiple in-state administrative records, accessibility of data from these sources, and differences in definitions and time periods covered.
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In this context, quality includes the dimensions of data accuracy; breadth of variables covered; completeness of data for variables covered; timeliness of data; and difficulty in linking, and consistency within a state of, definitions across different sets of administrative records that contain the basic information used to create teacher data bases. It was generally agreed that most states will have to expand a great deal of effort to establish high-quality teacher data bases.
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Third, the generation of comparative state-by-state teacher data has stimulated intense interest among the chief state school officers and has led to policy changes such as regionalizing teacher credentialing. With respect to the national level, a number of data bases useful for analyses of TSDQ issues now exist.
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Several participants argued that all state money available for teacher data base development should be devoted to improving within-state data, and that none of it should be allocated to development of regional data bases. Even if this principle were adopted, most states probably would not have sufficient resources to produce highquality data bases.
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