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4 APPLYING SYSTEMS THINKING TO UNDERSTAND FUTURE VULNERABILITIES
Pages 21-26

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From page 21...
... SYSTEMS THINKING: DEFINITIONS AND IMPORTANCE Why is systems thinking important for developing models of the health risks posed by climate change? Before answering that question, Georges Benjamin, of the American Public Health Association, offered definitions of systems thinking and health system (Box 4-1)
From page 22...
... "We talk about direct effects, but we do not talk about these tail events." We need to build models that address cascading system failures and secondary and tertiary effects, said Molly Brown, of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. An analysis conducted in the wake of Superstorm Sandy showed that what most affected "human welfare and public health were all the aspects that we never thought of and that are not in the models, such as generators below sea level and unexpected cascading power outages," Brown said.
From page 23...
... Effort to factor in such compo ts n onents as human ad daptation and mitigation efforts are co omplicated b the reality that although much by evidence suggests tha adaptation will occur, little clarifies w at n when or at wwhat level it w occur, will said Sari Kovats, of the Faculty of Public Health and Policy of the London School of Hy K e f n ygiene and Tropi Medicine ical e. The models may not necessaril be best cre m n ly eated via the conventiona "top-down" al " approach said Anne Grambsch, of the US Environmental Pro h, G f otection Ageency.
From page 24...
... To identify those kinds of end points, it is important to get people to think about the different outcomes that they are willing to accept, Glass said. Janetos suggested that the health goals in the Millennium Development Goals8 could serve as end points in models for assessing the health effects of climate change.
From page 25...
... The researchers combined the results of the global crop and hydrologic models to analyze the potential of irrigation as both an adaptation mechanism and a measure of climate change. They found that water limitations caused by reduced runoff and hydrologic limits resulted in a decrease in food production of 8–24% compared with today's agricultural production even when increases in plant productivity associated with increased atmospheric concentrations of CO2 were included.


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