The Power of Change Innovation for Development and Deployment of Increasingly Clean Electric Power Technologies (2016) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix B: Benchmark Levelized Cost of Electricity Estimates
Appendix B: Benchmark Levelized Cost of Electricity Estimates
Pages 255-264
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From page 255... ...
Key inputs to calculating LCOE include capital costs, fuel costs, fixed and variable operations and maintenance (O&M) costs, financing costs, and an assumed utilization rate for each plant type.
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The learning rates applied to the base cost estimates decline after the first three and subsequent five doublings of installed capacity. The cost of competing technologies increases, particularly for natural gas.
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This produces substantially lower fixed-charge rates for renewable capital costs. 1 Without these selective polices, the fixed-charge rates would be closer and reflect only real differences in component costs and lead times for production that affect capital costs.
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. The former include conventional fossil fuel plants that have a fairly consistent available capacity and can follow dispatch instructions to increase or decrease production.
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Hence, in addition to the equivalent cost estimates absent policies for pricing externalities, the estimates here incorporate separate components for the major externalities. The principal externalities for electricity generation include the criteria pollutants and carbon dioxide (CO2)
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This is for entry year 2022. Looking ahead to 2040, with some additional cost reductions for renewables and more substantial increased fuel costs for natural gas, the situation changes for wind but not for solar.
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Because Annual Energy Outlook 2016 does not assess conventional coal and IGCC technologies, their values (in 2013 dollars) were sourced from Annual Energy Outlook 2015 and then converted to 2015 dollars using the Bureau of Economic Analysis' gross domestic product (GDP)
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In part, the renewable growth is driven by implicit policies, such as the capital cost add-on for coal or explicit policies such as renewable portfolio standards. With the low cost for new facilities, natural gas shows the largest growth rate.
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FIGURE B-3 Renewable electricity generation by type, projections from 2016 on. SOURCE: Renewable Energy Generating Capacity and Generation, Reference Case Tables (EIA, 2016a, Table 16)
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