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1 Recognize Constraints and Align Expectations
Pages 13-23

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From page 13...
... was established by Congress to develop the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) .1 NextGen refers to a set of programs and initiatives to be coordinated into an evolving overall air transportation system aimed at a continuing transformation of the National Airspace System (NAS)
From page 14...
... To respond to this request, the NRC formed the Committee to Review the Enterprise Architecture, Software Development Approach, and Safety and Human Factor Design of the Next Generation Air Transportation System in 2012 to conduct this study. In this final report, the committee provides its analysis and recommendations to the FAA with a particular focus on the importance of system architecture and its implications.
From page 15...
... assess technical, cost, and schedule risk for the software development that will be necessary to achieve the expected benefits from a highly automated air traffic management system and the implications for ongoing modernization projects; and (3) determine how risks with automation efforts for the NextGen can be mitigated based on the experiences of other public or private entities in developing complex, software-intensive systems.
From page 16...
... highlight the technical activities, including human-system design and testing, organizational design, and other safety and human factor aspects of the system, that will be necessary to successfully transition current and planned modernization programs to the future system envisioned by the Joint Planning and Development Office of the Administration and obtain necessary certifications and operational approval; (2) assess technical, cost, and schedule risk for the software development that will be necessary to achieve the expected benefits from a highly automated air traffic management system and the implications for ongoing modernization projects; and (3)
From page 17...
... For example, few airports have the option to build additional runways; aircraft capacity decisions are solely in the hands of the airlines and manufacturers; and alternative competitive intercity transportation options, such as high speed rail or other ground transportation means, do not exist in most major cities -- all of which continue to place increased pressure on Metroplex airports.7 In the committee's view, it is helpful to keep these often challenging constraints, which include legacy commitments already made, in mind when planning, assessing, or evaluating NextGen efforts. Throughout the committee's work, it became clear that "NextGen" means different things to different people, ranging from a wide-ranging transformational vision to a much more concrete set of phased incremental changes to various parts of the NAS.
From page 18...
... Standard practice is that the "owning" organization should play close attention to the operational description 8 See Chapter 4 of JPDO, Next Generation Air Transportation System Integrated Plan, 2004, http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a605269.pdf; JPDO, Making the NextGen Vision a Reality: 2006 Progress Report to the Next Generation Air Transportation System Integrated Plan, 2006, http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a502356.pdf; and JPDO, Version 2.0, 2007, http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a496134.pdf; JPDO Concept of Operations for the Next Generation Air Transportation System Draft 3 Version 1.1a, December 6, 2006; FAA NextGen Mid-Term Concept of Operations for the National Airspace System, Version 2.0, April 30, 2010. 9 Automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B)
From page 19...
... NextGen has also come to encompass an additional broad range of activities expressed in various implementation plans, the NAS enterprise architecture, roadmaps, and calls for research, experimentation, and further incremental programs. Replacing or upgrading systems while the whole system must continuously and safely operate is an intricate undertaking, a process that the FAA seems to have mastered.
From page 20...
... This was true even at the outset of NextGen and is understandable, given changes over time.15 However, even the limited vision embraced at the start of NextGen has been reduced over time, while increasingly important challenges have not received adequate attention.16 Many of the specific goals described in early JPDO discussions, such as free flight or air traffic control based on predefined 4-D flight trajectories, to enable global optimization of the airspace will not come to fruition in the foreseeable future. In fact, many of them will require significant research and experimentation before it can be known whether and in what form they are feasible.
From page 21...
... to significantly altering the nature of controller work, a conservative safety culture that makes changes to procedures slow and expensive, and limited resources and capacity to implement widespread changes to procedures have stalled efforts to make the fundamental changes to the concept of operations that the JPDO envisioned. It is difficult to distinguish specifically how much each of these factors contributes, but it will be critical to address these organizational and cultural factors if full advantage is to be taken of new technological possibilities.18 17 See, for example, Transportation Research Board, Airport Cooperative Research Program: Evaluating Airfield Capacity, 2012, http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/acrp/acrp_rpt_079.
From page 22...
... , 19 Early planning documents used to motivate NextGen noted that some models projected that the number of passengers could more than double by 2025 (see, for example, Gisele Mohler, FAA, "Airport Capacity Planning and NextGen," presentation to the Eastern Region Airport Conference, March 2008, http://www.faa.gov/airports/eastern/airports_news_ events/hershey/media_08/Mohler-Eastern%20Region%20Arpt%20Conf08%20-GM.pdf )
From page 23...
... This misalignment causes chal lenges both for the FAA and for stakeholders. Finding: Although technological and procedural improvements have been introduced into the NAS, elements of the NAS rely on outdated technology, and the system has not been significantly changed to take advantage of available information and communi cations technologies or to enable major improvements in how the airspace can be organized and managed.


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