A Strategic Vision for NSF Investments in Antarctic and Southern Ocean Research (2015) / Chapter Skim
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3 Suggested Research Priorities for the Coming Decade
3 Suggested Research Priorities for the Coming Decade
Pages 45-80
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From page 45... ...
researchers to be active in all basic areas of Antarctic and Southern Ocean science, since it is unknown when or where critical advances will occur in the future, and likewise unknown when or where uture f major environmental changes may emerge. The Committee thus fully endorses NSF's Division of Polar Programs (NSF/PLR's)
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From page 46... ...
With the large costs and logistical challenges BOX 3.1 Transformational Space Research in Antarctica A historical example of "curiosity-based," investigator-driven Antarctic research is the trans formational work of Robert Helliwell and colleagues in the 1950s. They were investigating radio discharges produced by lightning in the very low frequency (VLF)
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From page 47... ...
This would also link well with efforts of the international Southern Ocean Observing System, which has identified the Ross Sea region as a key area for enhancing regional-scale cross- disciplinary research. A related example raised in our community discussions illustrates how coordinated data collection and management can eliminate duplication and improve research effi ciency.
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From page 48... ...
SUPPORT A FEW STRATEGICALLY CHOSEN LARGE RESEARCH INITIATIVES The Committee was charged to identify priorities for NSF/PLR research support, drawing upon the ideas collected from the research community at large and upon the judgment of the Committee itself. This type of prioritization exercise of course p resents a daunting challenge -- especially given the huge diversity of compelling research topics that are addressed in Antarctic and Southern Ocean research.
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From page 49... ...
This list was developed by examining all the many types of evaluation criteria that have been used in similar exercises carried out by other NRC study committees over the past several years, and tailoring that list to best fit the context of Antarctic and Southern Ocean science. The selected criteria are listed below.
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From page 50... ...
Recommendation: NSF should pursue the following as strategic priorities in Antarctic and Southern Ocean research for the coming decade: I. How fast and by how much will sea level rise? • A multidisciplinary initiative to understand why the Antarctic ice sheets are changing now and how they will change in the future.
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From page 51... ...
If the marine-based ice from both East and West Antarctica were fully melted, it would contribute over 20 m to global sea level rise. Understanding how and how fast these ice sheets could collapse is thus critical for understanding how future sea level rise might proceed.
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From page 52... ...
Antarctic ice shelves. Black curve is polynomial fit for All Antarctic ice shelves.
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From page 53... ...
. BOX 3.3 Costs of Sea Level Rise Actual costs of future sea level rise, the costs of both direct impacts and of possible adapta tion actions, are notoriously difficult to determine.
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From page 54... ...
. To build on these past successes, the Committee suggests that the NSF launch an ambitious new integrated, interdisciplinary, international research program referred to here as the Changing Antarctic Ice Sheets Initiative (Changing Ice Initiative for short)
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From page 55... ...
As discussed later, expanded cooperative A efforts -- within NSF, among the USAP agencies, and at the international level -- will be needed to advance this "grand challenge" of Antarctic and Southern Ocean science. The proposed effort, component i: A multidisciplinary initiative to understand why the Antarctic ice sheets are changing now and how they will change in the future Ice sheets are part of a complex atmosphere–ocean–climate system, and changes in both atmospheric and oceanic forcing can trigger faster flow and melt of Antarctic ice.
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From page 56... ...
Each of these elements is discussed further below: (i) Advancing our understanding of the complex ice, oceanic, and atmospheric processes driving the observed Antarctic ice sheet changes, through interdis 56
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From page 57... ...
, much more than the marine ice of West Antarctica. Yet relatively little is known about the potential of East Antarctic ice to contribute to rapid sea level rise.
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From page 58... ...
Much process-based research coupling field work, remote sensing, and modeling is required to advance assessment of the likelihood of a threshold-crossing leading to abrupt sea level rise from the ice sheets, as well as to improve projections of more-gradual sea level rise that could lead to threshold-crossing events in other systems.
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From page 59... ...
This includes studies aimed at the question "How fast did WAIS collapse in the past? " and studies aimed at the question "How much sea level rise was caused by past WAIS collapse?
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From page 60... ...
. Availability of highresolution ice cores that can provide the needed chronological accuracy diminishes rapidly if one looks further back in time, and so, ice core studies targeting the last interglacial are the most likely to be successful in answering the question of how fast sea level might rise.
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From page 61... ...
These indicators can also provide estimates of environmental conditions associated with periods of rapid ice loss -- such as sea ice/open-water feedbacks or the penetration of relatively warm seawater onto the Antarctic continental shelf. For instance, to detect marine ice sheet presence or absence and amount of collapse recorded in ice cores, the presence of nearby open water can be inferred from high concentrations of sulfur-containing compounds (diagnostic of nearby marine biological productivity)
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From page 62... ...
How Much Sea Level Rise Was Caused by Past WAIS Collapse? To determine how much sea level rise was caused by past WAIS collapse, one must d etermine the geographical footprint (and thus the total volume of ice lost)
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From page 63... ...
Models are crucial for assimilating these datasets with other relevant observations, and making the best possible BOX 3.6 Rapid Sea Level Rise 14,500 Years Ago: Can the Source Be from Retreating Glaciers in Antarctica? The most recent significant sea level rise occurred from the melting of massive ice sheets follow ing the Last Glacial Maximum, which reached its peak ~19,000 years ago.
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From page 64... ...
. The models could then be used with modern climate-forcing estimates to project future sea level rise rates.
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From page 65... ...
Strategic Priority II How Do Antarctic Biota Evolve and Adapt to the Changing Environment? Decoding the Genomic and Transcriptomic Bases of Biological Adaptation and Response Across Antarctic Organisms and Ecosystems Background Context and Motivation Antarctica and the immense encircling Southern Ocean encompass uniquely isolated ecosystems of chronically frigid, extreme conditions.
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From page 66... ...
. The same warming ocean that threatens to collapse Antarctic ice sheets (see Strategic Priority I)
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From page 67... ...
. The question of how life has adapted to survive and exploit extreme Antarctic and Southern Ocean environments has been widely studied at different levels of biological organization, ranging from the molecular level to physiology and ecology for microbial species (e.g., Bakermans et al., 2014; Deming, 2002; Dolhi et al., 2013; Grzymski et al., 2006; Smith et al., 1994)
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From page 68... ...
Environmental microbes often cannot be grown in the laboratory, but information about the genetic diversity of microbes in the environment can be gained through direct metagenome sequencing of samples of seawater, ice, and soil, etc. Information from metagenome sequencing of entire species assemblages of microbial communities can be analyzed using bioinformatics and molecular phylogenetics, to reveal community genetic and taxonomic diversity.
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From page 69... ...
sequences can provide a powerful foundation for understanding the diversity of Antarctic species and species assemblages. To understand how organisms might respond to rapid environmental changes, one must elucidate the cellular and metabolic pathways that govern a species' or community's ability to cope with changes, through their functional response to contemporary and/or future conditions.
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From page 70... ...
. Robust estimates of microbial abundance and diversity are critical to understanding elemental cycling in the Southern Ocean, and genomic tools are the only means to map this microbial diversity and to identify the microbial species (phytoplankton, bacteria, viruses)
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From page 71... ...
Decoding the genome sequences and structures of Antarctic species whose evolution was shaped by extreme polar conditions and comparing them with decoded sequences and structures of related non-Antarctic temperate species provide a powerful basis to assess how Antarctic species evolved and adapted over geological timescales, and to assess their evolutionary potential to adapt to future environmental changes. Coupling this assess ment of evolutionary potential with assessment of phenotypic plasticity (through comparisons of functional response, as informed by transcriptomes and experimental testing)
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From page 72... ...
New field acquisitions such as a series of seasonal environmental DNA samples can address dynamic microbial or planktonic fauna changes that affect the food web. Genetic materials also can be retrieved from archival materials such as ice, sediment, or rock cores.
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From page 73... ...
Advancing U.S. leadership in this field requires a concerted and well- executed initiative, which will generate a trove of high-quality genome sequence data from a range of Antarctic species and samples of important scientific value.
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From page 74... ...
ations to come to understand the genomewide basis of evolutionary adaptation and specialization that allowed some species to flourish in the harsh Antarctic and Southern Ocean environment. It will also provide the genomic framework for assessing the ability of Antarctic organisms to evolve and adapt to continuing environ ental m change.
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From page 75... ...
Their nonzero masses indicate the existence of new physics beyond our current standard model of particle physics. Fully understanding the physics of neutrinos will extend our knowledge of the basic workings of nature and may offer important insights into a process known as baryogenesis, which produced the asymmetry (imbalance)
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From page 76... ...
The CMB-S4 program builds on the successful CMB programs using telescopes at the South Pole and the high Atacama Plateau in Chile, and possibly will add a new site in the Northern Hemisphere to allow observations of the full sky. The program will be designed to be highly complementary to the continuation of the successful Long Duration Balloon CMB programs, or even a future satellite mission.
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From page 77... ...
The Proposed Effort The entire CMB-S4 program will likely be on the order of 10 telescopes of two types, small apertures similar in size to BICEP and larger apertures, possibly 5 to 8 m in d iameter. The family of telescopes will be located at the South Pole, Chile, and possibly a new northern site to optimize the science return.
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From page 78... ...
In addition to three NSF divisions involved (PLR, Physics, and Astronomical Sciences, with PLR leading management of South Pole activities) , the DOE Office of Science has also expressed interest in being involved, particularly in the scaling-up of detector arrays and in handling the computation required for the large datasets.
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From page 79... ...
On a very general level, we surmise that the Antarctic Genomics Initiative and the Cosmic Microwave Background Initiative can be supported within the existing PLR core program budgets (for Antarctic Organisms and Ecosystems, and Antarctic strophysics A and Geospace Sciences, respectively) , without significantly impeding the ability of those programs to continue support for traditional PI-driven proposals.
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From page 80... ...
This research will ultimately provide critical guidance on when, where, and how sea level may occur, and it will thus help society make the needed adaptation investments in a reasonably informed matter. Although the cost of this research is large relative to current PLR/ANT program budgets, it is tiny relative to the projected costs of adaptation to and damage from sea level rise (see Box 3.3)
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