The Space Science Decadal Surveys Lessons Learned and Best Practices (2015) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix B:Implementing the CATE Process
Appendix B:Implementing the CATE Process
Pages 96-102
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From page 96... ...
CATE, as implemented by the Aerospace Corporation in partnership with the decadal survey committee of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, is based on historical and continuously updated and validated databases and methods. It is designed to evaluate diverse mission concepts of varying design maturity.
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From page 97... ...
1 Historical data like these were used to develop the CATE heuristics used to predict potential design evolution and, ultimately, potential cost growth. Typically, concepts evaluated via the CATE process are early in their life cycle, and therefore liable to undergo significant design changes.
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From page 98... ...
Likewise, schedule evaluation makes use of analogies to determine expected development time. Historical data from previous analogous NASA missions, properly adjusted, are used in the CATE schedule analysis to gauge the realism of the proposed durations of the development phases.
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From page 99... ...
The cost evaluation illustrated in Figure B.4 uses analogies and models to estimate cost for major elements, estimate reserves based on historical growth, and estimate design and schedule growth. The CATE employs multiple methods and databases representing past space systems such as proprietary models (e.g., Aerospace Small Satellite Cost Model)
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From page 100... ...
The output is a probabilistic view of potential cost that envelopes the potential evolution of the system over time. CATE Output For all concepts, the CATE process estimates the cost increases associated with increased contingency mass and power, increased schedule, increased required launch vehicle capability, and other cost threats, depending on the concept maturity and specific risk assessment of a particular concept.
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From page 101... ...
• Orbit: 100‐200 km Europa Orbit + Jovian Tour FIGURE B.5 Example of cost and technical evaluation (CATE) output including mission summary, key characteristics, risk assessment and cost-risk distribution.
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From page 102... ...
The CATE information helps to start the discussion of what can be accomplished relative to a particular science question for a particular cost -- even if the eventual implementation strategy turns out to be very different from what is assessed. The CATE process needs to be periodically reassessed and updated to ensure it remains both independent and true to its original goals.
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