Frontiers of Engineering Reports on Leading-Edge Engineering from the 2015 Symposium (2016) / Chapter Skim
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An Integrated Approach to Assess and Manage Hurricane Risk in a Changing Climate--Ning Lin
An Integrated Approach to Assess and Manage Hurricane Risk in a Changing Climate--Ning Lin
Pages 117-128
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From page 117... ...
Given the inherent uncertainties in hurricane activity, such management should be strongly informed by probabilistic risk assessment. Furthermore, hurricane risk assessment cannot rely solely on historical records: to account for projected future changes, it should integrate physical knowledge and models with observational data.
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From page 118... ...
The risk assessment can in turn inform risk management. The following sections review the main components -- hurricane activity, hazards, and risk -- of a physically based hurricane risk assessment framework and its application to evaluating risk mitigation strategies.
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From page 119... ...
established an analytical profile that is physically valid only for the inner convecting region. We mathematically merged these two theoretical solutions to develop a complete wind profile for the entire domain of the storm (Chavas et al.
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From page 120... ...
HURRICANE RISK Hazard models can be applied to simulated synthetic storms to generate large samples of hazards from which hazard probabilities can be estimated. For example, the ASCE building code has used such an approach to establish design wind maps (showing wind speeds for various return periods)
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From page 121... ...
MSL = mean sea level; NOAA = National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
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From page 122... ...
We have performed such analysis for various coastal cities; for example, Figure 3 shows our estimations of the storm surge level for NYC as a function of return period, under the observed current climate as well as climate model–estimated current climates and climate model–projected future climates. The results indicate a potentially significant increase of surge floods in the future due to climate change.
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From page 123... ...
four climate model–estimated climates for 1980–2000 (black) and 2080–2100 (blue and, when accounting also for potential changes in storm size, red; with projected 1 meter sea level rise accounted for)
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Effective risk analysis will require more physical or physical-statistical methods for simulating synthetic storms. Hurricane rainfall models, especially those based on physics, need to be developed to estimate inland flood risk in a changing climate.
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From page 126... ...
2012. On hurricane parametric wind and applications in storm surge modeling.
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From page 127... ...
2015. Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era.
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