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Global Health Risk Framework Pandemic Financing: Workshop Summary (2016) / Chapter Skim
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6 Identifying Triggers and Modeling Risk
Pages 35-40

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From page 35...
... • The reproductive rate of a virus is a function of the number of people in a network and the likelihood of infection pass ing between any two of them. The principle of social proof, whereby people behave similarly to others around them, influ ences the spread of human disease; models need to account for the effects of social proof on disease spread.
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From page 36...
... Wolfe commended the emerging interest in developing stronger surveillance and early warning systems. He pointed to the Cameroonian interagency pandemic prevention program as an example of coordinated surveillance systems across government agencies.
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From page 37...
... There are usually also questions of data accuracy, and the lack of data in some countries means that analysts commonly extrapolate information on the spread and impact of disease in the United States or Europe to other parts of the world. Meltzer favored simple triggers over those dependent on complicated modeling and data of questionable accuracy.
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From page 38...
... In catastrophe risk, it is now fairly common practice to use expert judgment as a formal process to quantify risk after modeling and, he continued, modern markets are fairly savvy with handling ambiguity in models. Meltzer clarified that he saw a difference between the preepidemic modeling, which can be complex and warrant expert attention to the nuance in the data, and the models produced at the beginning of an epidemic to determine the trigger point.
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From page 39...
... The innovative disease surveillance program in sub-Saharan Africa aims to improve data quality by providing technical and financial support for data collection and monitoring in that part of the world. An integrated electronic data management system could allow for more efficient use of this information.
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  • insurance industry
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  • disease spread
  • laboratory found
  • nathan wolfe
  • emergency response

  • helped contain
  • models produced
  • country indicated
  • risk capacity
  • simple trigger

  • health agencies
  • human diseases
  • financing models
  • surveillance activities
  • potential unmitigated

  • fairly savvy
  • complicated modeling
  • tive disease
  • integrated electronic
  • meltzer favored


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