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2 General Fertility Trends
Pages 5-20

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From page 5...
... AFRICA'S UNIQUE FERTILITY TRANSITION John Bongaarts of the Population Council and Ann Biddlecom of the Population Division of the United Nations discussed factors that make the fertility transitions in African countries unique. Bongaarts provided context for understanding how fertility rates in Africa have followed patterns different from those observed in other countries, and Biddlecom provided additional perspective on these trends by examining differences within the sub-Saharan countries and considering possible scenarios for the future.
From page 6...
... is just above 5 births per woman for the African region, as opposed to under 3 elsewhere. Bongaarts used four development indicators to help explain fertility trends in sub-Saharan Africa between 1970 and 2010: gross domestic product (GDP)
From page 7...
... They identified nine distinct clusters of countries that followed similar trajectories in their fertility declines and ultimately reached a level of 3 births or fewer per woman; these trajectories are shown in graph form in Figure 2-3. Using these nine clusters, Biddlecom explained, it was possible to develop a range of fertility rate projections for individual countries, such 1 See http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2007/06/researchers-analyze-%E2%80% 98africa-effect%E2%80%99-the-slow-growth-of-some-economies/ [July 2015]
From page 8...
... . FIGURE 2-3  Nine distinct fertility decline patterns.
From page 9...
... The projections for individual countries, in turn, allowed Biddlecom and her colleagues to develop a range of population projections, also based on possible scenarios for regions of Africa; the range of projections is shown in Figure 2-5. Biddlecom closed with the observation that this is a "time of uncertainty" in sub-Saharan Africa because total fertility is high across the region despite considerable diversity within it.
From page 10...
... David Canning of the School of Public Health at Harvard University described an approach to modeling the potential economic effects of reducing family size. Challenges and Opportunities Cleland began with reference to a remark by a former chief economist at the World Bank, Francois Bourguignon, that "we really do not know what causes economic growth." He did so to emphasize that he would offer not predictions for what will happen but a set of challenges that need to be overcome for sub-Saharan African countries to experience rapid economic growth.
From page 11...
... Many Asian countries, in particular, benefited from this set of circumstances to achieve substantial economic gains. In the sub-Saharan countries, however, Cleland explained, demographic projections indicate that there is likely to be growth in all age bands, so the changes in the age structure in many are likely to be quite modest.
From page 12...
... Few countries in the region have largescale programs to provide low-cost housing, and many have ambiguous arrangements for urban land ownership and weak municipal governance structures. The population pressure on the housing infrastructure is likely to be relentless, in Cleland's view, and he suggested that this circumstance might give rise to increasing slum populations, housing insecurity, violence, and threats to social cohesion.
From page 13...
... Unfortunately, however, Cleland noted, the labor force in the Asian countries with which African countries would be competing is also expected to continue growing. Because worldwide manufacturing jobs are not increasing, African countries' expanding labor forces are not a significant advantage in this arena, in his view.
From page 14...
... Population growth in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to remain high compared with rates in other regions, Lam explained; see Figure 2-8. The TFR, currently at 4.8 births per woman, is expected to decline to 3.0 births by 2050, but will also be higher than
From page 15...
... However, the ratio for the world is increasing, he explained -- the elderly population will nearly double by 2050, which will offset the decline in the percentages of children in populations where fertility rates are low. Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region for which the dependency ratio is projected to decline during that same period; by 2050 it will be lower than those for Europe and North America, and only slightly above that of Latin America.
From page 16...
... Overall, Lam and his colleagues concluded that population shifts are likely to have mixed effects on economic development, and other determinants are likely to have a greater influence on outcomes. Modeling the Effects of Demographic Change on Economic Growth David Canning presented a simulation model of the possible effect of reduction in family size on economic growth in the region, noting that approaches to understanding the role of declining fertility in accelerating
From page 17...
... The newer view, that fertility decline brings a demographic dividend because of changes in the age structure, an increase in the female labor supply, and changing views of the investment in children, he suggested, can be tested empirically in several ways. One macroeconomic approach is to use growth regressions to project per capita income based on changing age structures.
From page 18...
... Presenters also noted that collecting data at the national and sub-national levels is challenging, but that as improved data become available, these will be valuable avenues to pursue. Adetunji noted that the portrait of trends in fertility decline and population growth should remind the group that the question of whether Africa has too many people is too broad because, "it depends on where you are looking." Population growth is very different from country to country, he added, but it is nevertheless true that the implications of population projections for the region are "enormous." Family planning programs have an effect, he added, as Rwanda, Malawi, and Ethiopia demonstrate.
From page 19...
... One suggested that Latin American countries might have more similarities with the African region than Southeast Asian countries do and therefore offer more useful comparisons. Finally, a few participants highlighted the importance of equity issues: one observed, "even if we double GDP, if the wealth is concentrated in a few hands it will not change anything." Kobiané noted that though the three discussions of the possible consequences of fertility trends offered some differing views, they made clear that the effects of fertility decline are not systematic.


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