Next Generation Earth System Prediction Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts (2016) / Chapter Skim
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6 Interface Between Research and Operations
6 Interface Between Research and Operations
Pages 207-222
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From page 207... ...
Forecasters in the operational community are often under pressure to maintain a natural conservatism. Because numerous users depend on operational forecasts and invest in using specific outputs, there is pressure on the forecasters to maintain consistency in their forecast products.
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From page 208... ...
Participating modeling groups include both operational and research centers,2 with forecasts from each provided to the NOAA NCEP Climate Prediction Center for evaluation and consolidation as part of its operational seasonal prediction system. NMME-2, which started in 2012, initially focused on bridging research and operations, and developing requirements for operational seasonal prediction that were then used to define the specifications of a rigorous retrospective forecast experiment and evaluation regime.
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From page 209... ...
, APCC has established protocols and databases for contributing model centers' forecast data, which in turn supports research on predictability. APCC also conducts research on MME m ethods, which in turn feeds work to issue MME forecasts using the most beneficial methodology (Min et al., 2014)
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From page 210... ...
One advantage of the S2S Project database is the diversity of operational models. However, the models are inconsistent in terms of in forecast start date, frequency, lead time, and reforecast strategy, which makes it difficult for data exchange, performance inter-comparison, and research.
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From page 211... ...
interagency program was established in 2010 "to improve coordination and collaboration across the federally sponsored environmental research and operational prediction communities for the scientific development and operational implementation of improved global prediction at the weather to climate interface."4 ESPC advocates for a number of things at the interface of research and operations, including common coupled modeling architectures and standardization of data, archives, and forecast skill metrics. As part of ESPC, NOAA and the U.S.
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From page 212... ...
. There is also a desire to improve on operational models by transitioning model components and/or parameterization schemes from experimental models developed in the broader community.
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From page 213... ...
Operations-to-research faces a similar issue. To make research relevant and focused on scientific issues exposed by operations, operational centers must provide access to their data and analysis, operational models, and multiyear reanalysis and retrospective forecasting runs.
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From page 214... ...
. Better connections between the research and operations communities are crucial to improving operational skill and advancing research and quasi-operational prediction systems into operational mode.
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From page 215... ...
and providing data that is incorporated into NCEP operational products, external users, and the research community on a real-time basis, its existence is partially dependent on short-term research funding. The CFSv2 is the current NCEP operational seasonal prediction system and is supported as such, and output of the Canadian Meteorological Center system's two models are being provided through a Cooperative Agreement.
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From page 216... ...
As described for climate models generally (NRC, 2012b) , operational centers would best promote these advances by providing operational models, supporting data sets, and a user-friendly environment that allows external researchers to test experimental parameterizations and/or model components in an operational setting.
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From page 217... ...
Closing the gap between research and development and operational prediction will require the capability to establish workflow provenance and automate analysis where feasible and reasonable, for which research and development are needed. The major route for research results and successes to move into operations are by diffusion through the professional literature and meetings and some focused symposia, like those of ECMWF, for example, Seasonal Prediction in 2012 and on Subseasonal Prediction in 2015.
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From page 218... ...
A second approach of substantial benefit would be to provide researchers with the capability to request reruns of operational models or conduct numerical experiments using operational models themselves. Some of the visiting scientists programs have enabled researcher to insert their diagnostics into operational models, but the ability for researchers to request reruns of operational models for specific time periods or even test new parameterization will be difficult given the resource constraints of operational centers.
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From page 219... ...
On geological timescales there is strong evidence of much larger volcanic eruptions and impacts by extra-planetary bodies. Similarly, future human-induced climate forcing events could greatly exceed the magnitude of historical events.
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From page 220... ...
Although this system will draw upon the expertise of the nation's research community, it will need to be considered an operational system, with the same robustness and reliability as is expected from other operational forecast systems. The development of this new capability for projecting the consequences of unusual forcing events will leverage many existing research activities or efforts to develop longer-term Earth system projection capabilities, but it will still constitute a substantial new effort by the nation.
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From page 221... ...
Recommendation N: Develop a national capability to forecast the consequences of unanticipated forcing events. Specifically: • Improve the coordination of government agencies and academia to enable rapid response to unanticipated events and to provide S2S forecasts using the unanticipated events as sources of predictability.
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