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Pages 1-16

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From page 1...
... There are many more such examples: naval and commercial shipping planners designate shipping routes weeks in advance, seeking to stage assets strategically, avoid hazards, and/or take advantage of favorable conditions; with improved knowledge of the likelihood of precipitation or drought, farmers can purchase seed varieties that are most likely to increase yields and reduce costs; and depending on the year, water resource managers can face a multitude of decisions about reservoir levels in the weeks, months, and seasons ahead of eventual water consumption. A frontier in forecasting involves extending the capability to skillfully predict environmental conditions and disruptive weather events to several weeks and months in advance, filling what has long been a gap between today's short-term weather and ocean forecasting capabilities (within the next 14 days)
From page 2...
... Subseasonal forecasts often project average conditions over a week or more, often with lead times of 2-6 weeks or more. In this report, "subseasonal to seasonal" or "S2S" includes environmental predictions with forecast ranges from 2 weeks to 12 months (see also Box 1.1)
From page 3...
... Improve Prediction of Extreme and Disruptive Events and Consequences of Unanticipated Forcing Events 4. Include More Components of the Earth System in S2S Forecast Models RECOMMENDED ELEMENTS OF A RESEARCH AGENDA Implementing the four strategies above will require research in the physical and social sciences, as well as improved coordination among user, research, and operational forecast communities.
From page 4...
... serves as the target for the research agenda. Four research strategies are intended to organize actions to advance toward the vision, but are not mutually exclusive (indicated by the white arrows)
From page 5...
... Recommendation Strategies Research tional Term Initiative Critical Chapter 3 A: Develop a body of social science research that leads to more comprehensive and systematic understanding of the use and barriers to use of 1, 4 ¡__________¡ ¡ seasonal and subseasonal Earth system predictions. B: Establish an ongoing and iterative process in which stakeholders, social and behavioral scientists, and physical scientists codesign S2S forecast products, verification metrics, and decision 1, 4 ¡__________¡ ¡ making tools.
From page 6...
... F: Determine priorities for observational systems and networks by developing and implementing observing system simulation experiments, observing system experiments, and other sensitivity studies 2, 3, 4 ¡__________¡ ¡ ¡ using S2S forecast systems. G: Invest in research that advances the development of strongly coupled data assimilation and quantifies the impact of such advances on operational S2S 2, 3, 4 ¡__________¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ forecast systems.
From page 7...
... Research Strategy 1: Engage Users in the Process of Developing S2S Forecast Products Many barriers hinder the use of existing S2S forecast information, including ­ ncreasing i demand for a wider variety of forecast variables and formats that are not readily available. An important first step in providing more actionable S2S forecast information is to develop a body of social and behavioral sciences research that leads to more comprehensive understanding of the current use and barriers to use of S2S predictions (Recommendation A)
From page 8...
... -- see Box 1.3) ; • Slowly-varying processes (e.g., involving soil moisture, snow pack and other aspects of the land surface, ocean heat content, currents and eddy positions, and sea ice)
From page 9...
... is central to S2S prediction, developing and implementing coupled data assimilation methods is at the forefront of S2S model development. "Weakly coupled" data assimilation is one existing method that is increasingly implemented in weather prediction and holds promise for improving S2S prediction systems.
From page 10...
... Modest increases in model resolutions hold potential for reducing model errors, and such improvements should continue to be studied. However, given the computational costs of increasing model resolution, many critical Earth system processes will need to be parameterized (i.e., represented using simplified physics schemes rather than being explicitly resolved in models)
From page 11...
... Additionally, allowing researchers to conduct or request specific experiments on operational systems would provide an additional boost to the flow of discoveries and technical advances. Research Strategy 3: Improve Prediction of Extreme and Disruptive Events and of the Consequences of Unanticipated Forcing Events To improve the overall skill of S2S forecasts and provide more actionable information to users, the committee identifies two areas that deserve special attention and promotes them to the third and fourth Research Strategies.
From page 12...
... Research Strategy 4: Include More Components of the Earth System in S2S Forecast Models The other area that the committee believes needs more focused attention is the utilization and further development of advanced Earth system model components beyond the troposphere, which has been the traditional focus of numerical weather prediction. The S2S prediction problem is inherently a problem of capturing the coupled processes operating at the interface between various components of the Earth system, including the troposphere, stratosphere, ocean, cryosphere, biosphere, and land surface.
From page 13...
... The volume of observational data, data assimilation steps, model outputs, and reanalysis and retrospective forecasts involved in S2S forecasting means that the S2S modeling process is extremely data intensive. Advances in S2S forecast models (such as higher resolutions, increased complexity, the generation and retention of long retrospective forecasts)
From page 14...
... Given the importance of S2S predictions to the nation, a concerted effort is needed to entrain, develop, and retain S2S professionals. This involves gathering quantitative information about workforce requirements and the expertise base to support S2S forecasting, improving incentives and funding to support existing professionals and attract new professionals, and expanding interdisciplinary programs to train a more robust and diverse workforce to employ in boundary organizations that fill the space between S2S modelers and forecast user communities (Recommendation P)
From page 15...
... Summary that some progress can be made with current levels of support and within current organizational structures, but achieving even a considerable fraction of the S2S vision will likely require additional resources for basic and applied research, observations, forecast operations, and user engagement. The scope of the research agenda will also require closer collaboration between federal agencies and international partners, better flow of ideas and data between the research and operational forecasting communities, and engagement of the entire weather and climate enterprise.


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