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The Neglected Dimension of Global Security A Framework to Counter Infectious Disease Crises (2016) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix C: Modeling the Economic Threat of Pandemics, by Anas El Turabi and Philip Saynisch
Pages 109-112

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From page 109...
... We can using what we know about previous pandemics to model use simulation models to give us a feel for how much the the impact of future pandemics. Previous work has esnumber of pandemics each century might vary due to timated the economic loss that occurred as a result of random chance, and doing this gives us the distribution each of the 20th-century pandemics as 0.7–4.8 percent shown in Figure C-1.1 of global gross domestic product (GDP)
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From page 110...
... SOURCE: Figure created for the GHRF Commission by El Turabi and Saynisch, Harvard University. The rate of new infectious diseases has been rising over the past century, with more than 330 emerging infec tious diseases being reported between 1940 and 2004.
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From page 111...
... standard deviation derived from the global GDP losses calculated by 4 We explored alternative parameterizations of the distributions of McKibben and Sidorenko for 20th century influenza pandemics (0.7 economic losses (uniform and beta) using alternative sources for ecopercent, 3.1 percent, and 4.8 percent)
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From page 112...
... of their nations. For these reasons, it may be reasonable So, given the range of estimates for the economic to consider our estimate of expected annual losses from losses as a result of pandemic events, which number the global economy of $60 billion per year a "low" realshould we have in mind when considering the risk istic estimate.
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  • expected annual
  • simulation models
  • risk averse
  • expected economic

  • event occurring
  • previous pandemics
  • pandemic event
  • percent chance
  • modeling assumptions

  • nontrivial chance
  • especially gests
  • monetary fund
  • gdp losses
  • fund estimate

  • directly comparable
  • principal modeling
  • economic threat
  • pandemic occurs
  • observed influenza


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