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From page 1...
... 1 1.1 The Purpose of This Research 1.1.1 Project Objectives "The overall objective of this research is to develop an analytical framework to improve understanding of how current or potential intercity travelers make the choice to travel by air, rail, bus, or private automobile for the majority of their trip. This framework should provide guidance for use by a diverse audience of practitioners and decision makers considering alternative planning, operating, financing, service, and capital investment strategies for intercity passenger rail service in existing and potential travel markets, and it should allow users to evaluate how mode choice is affected by a variety of changing and evolving parameters.
From page 2...
... 2 Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets for rail and bus markets, using structural equation modeling, which did not attempt to reflect detailed variation in trip characteristics (e.g., service levels and costs)
From page 3...
... Introduction and Major Conclusions 3 The two groups face the same set of times and costs, but younger females choose the bus at a rate 3.5 times that of older males. This prompts the question: Do these groups have a different set of values, attitudes, or preferences?
From page 4...
... 4 Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets issues is the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) , developed by Dr.
From page 5...
... Introduction and Major Conclusions 5 project, the research team had designed the survey instrument to gather information in all four subject areas -- values, location, attitudes, and travel -- shown in Figure 4. 1.2.3 What Are the Long-Term Values in the Analytical Framework?
From page 6...
... 6 Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets explore how several alternative futures might affect the propensity to choose rail. The concept of uncertainty must be addressed in long-term planning; these new tools help decision makers understand numerous potential scenarios, thereby mitigating the inevitable uncertainty of the future.
From page 7...
... Introduction and Major Conclusions 7 At the other end of the rank ordering, residential density turned out not to be a significant factor and values toward urbanism is on the border of being statistically insignificant, and certainly inconsequential, in the explanation of long-distance mode choice. 1.3.4 How Did the Four Future Scenarios Address These Issues?
From page 8...
... 8 Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets 1.3.5 Do the Scenarios Suggest a Wide Range of Possible Future Market Contexts? Accepting the logic that the scenarios were indeed designed to emphasize variation, the scale of the variation based on alternative future cultural settings is significant.
From page 9...
... Introduction and Major Conclusions 9 the need for a private car, rail ridership would go down by 11.9%. Table 4 also illustrates the interrelationship between the demographic category and the four latent factors by allowing the (unlikely)
From page 10...
... 10 Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets 1.3.8 Additional Factors to Explore The Influence of One's Peers on the Selection of Intercity Mode The modeling of the attitudes through the format of the TPB suggests two more possible areas for future research. First, the choice of rail may be -- perhaps more than anticipated -- influenced by normative pressures.
From page 11...
... Introduction and Major Conclusions 11 1.3.9 Rail in a Competitive Dynamic Market -- What about the Competing Modes? This project provides a major update on the status of competing modes in the United States.
From page 12...
... 12 Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets shows that -- between 1995 and 2009 [the analysis years available from the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS)
From page 13...
... Introduction and Major Conclusions 13 • Chapter 4: Understanding Values, Preferences, and Attitudes in the Choice of Rail. This chapter presents the concept of an "analytical framework," which develops the concept that long-term values might influence residence, that the geographic characteristics of residence might influence short-term attitudes, and that all these factors might converge to facilitate understanding variation in rail ridership.

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