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Pages 71-77

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From page 71...
... 71 6.1 Introduction In the previous chapter was discussed the creation of a new ICLV model to better understand how demand for rail is influenced both by traditional times and costs and by cultural and psychological factors that are more difficult to quantify. Those trained in model building, and in economic analysis, will have no trouble interpreting the implications both from the level of detail in Chapter 5 and from the more complete set of tables presented in ICLV and Hybrid Model Development in NCRRP Web-Only Document 2.
From page 72...
... 72 Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets The scenario testing tool builds directly on the results calculated in the NCRRP ICLV forecasting model. For each of the 5,625 persons analyzed in the stated choice exercise, over 40 separate coefficients are created to reflect mode share implications from various forms of travel times (in-vehicle, access, egress)
From page 73...
... Model Application for Scenario Analysis 73 millennials but will reflect the current post-millennial 35–44 age group, and the cohorts will keep their same attitudes toward privacy as they age. The mixed scenarios have different combinations of those assumptions.
From page 74...
... 74 Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets precise forecasts but to begin with a reasonable representation of the current traveling population, so an approximate overall sample expansion was deemed acceptable. Using an expansion factor of 6,000 annual trips per survey respondent gave a reasonable match against "observed" trips in total and by trip purpose.
From page 75...
... Model Application for Scenario Analysis 75 Demographics Base Scenario Business Vacaon VFR Other GENDER Female 41.1% 57.1% 55.4% 56.4% Male (base) 58.9% 42.9% 44.6% 43.6% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% AGE Under 35 20.7% 24.1% 21.3% 12.6% 35 44 (base)
From page 76...
... 76 Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets 6.3.2 Changing Mode Travel Times and Costs Table 22 shows the travel times and costs that can be adjusted by the user for specific scenarios. The changes are quite general and are applied in the same percentage to each person in the sample (with the exception of cost changes, which can be specified separately for business trips and nonbusiness trips to represent changes in business or economy fares separately)
From page 77...
... Model Application for Scenario Analysis 77 Shis in Atude Privacy Auto Oriented Urbanism Technology All ages to under 35 0 0 0 0 Under 35 to 35 44 0 0 0 0 All ages to over 65 0 0 0 0 All ages one group younger 0 0 0 0 Female to male 0 0 0 0 Male to female 0 0 0 0 No college to college 0 0 0 0 College to no college 0 0 0 0 Unemployed to employed 0 0 0 0 Employed to unemployed 0 0 0 0 Table 24. User-adjustable predefined shifts in attitudes.

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