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Pages 96-104

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From page 96...
... 96 9.1 Introduction This chapter gives a brief summary of new research done by NCRRP to better understand how the competition from air may be different from the competition from other modes. The chapter explores a newly documented interaction between improvement of rail travel time on the one hand and variation in air price on the other hand.
From page 97...
... Competition Between Rail and Air 97 of a series of actions/investments so that a decision can be made on whether to engage in more detailed analysis. 9.2 Air/Rail Diversion Model The air/rail diversion model allows policy analysts to study possible air and rail diversion for two study years (2008 and 2040)
From page 98...
... 98 Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets importance of each of the seven global variables, i.e., rail IVT, air IVT, auto IVT, rail fare, air fare, rail service (frequency) , and air service (frequency)
From page 99...
... Competition Between Rail and Air 99 that contains 0 brings into question the validity of the PIC value because the PIC could easily be a negative number as well as a positive. Since the confidence interval of -0.19 and 0.27 means that the true value lies within the range, the direction of impact is indeterminable.
From page 100...
... 100 Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets Likewise, any loss of time due to traffic congestion on the way to airports is likely to be more than compensated by faster travel time on airplanes. Additionally, auto IVT is the only variable whose bootstrap confidence interval includes 0, which indicates unclear direction of impact.
From page 101...
... Competition Between Rail and Air 101 the dynamic relationship between fare and travel time since it shows that once speeds for air and rail have almost equalized, rail and air will compete on fare. After air fare and rail IVT, rail fare has the third largest impact on the number of rail trips.
From page 102...
... 102 Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets 50% reduction in rail IVT increases the number of rail trips by 24% while 50% increase reduces it by 19%, everything else held constant. They are followed by rail fare with 13% and -13% elasticity for 0.5 scale and 1.5 scale, respectively.
From page 103...
... Competition Between Rail and Air 103 train speed by about 25%. In other words, now the rail IVT would be about 25% less than the existing level (scale = 0.75)
From page 104...
... 104 Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets The only curve that does not converge is air fare scale category "Less than 0.5," again highlighting the drastic effect that extremely low air fares have on passenger diversion. 9.4 Conclusion In this analysis, the research team employed the air/rail diversion model to study the interaction between air and rail/HSR service levels and how these service-level variables affect rail demand.

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