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From page 157... ... Page 7-1 CHAPTER 7: TASK 5 -- AIR CARGO FORECAST TECHNIQUES CHAPTER OVERVIEW The air cargo industry is faced with some of the most challenging forecast challenges of any industry. Forecasts based on historic trends analysis are increasingly less reliable as future trends cannot be solely based on activities and practices that have evolved into combined modes of both air and truck transport. Read the entire page →
From page 158... ... Page 7-2 report weekly or daily tonnage numbers, planners can use secondary references (such as OAG's Cargo Flight Guide) or request carrier schedules to record flight operations in peak period analysis – critical where aircraft parking ramp is at a premium. Read the entire page →
From page 159... ... Page 7-3 Longer historical periods are still often preferred but the beginning and ending years of the time series should be closely scrutinized for the effect that anomalous years can have on trend analysis. While it is customary to use increments such as decades in time series, a ten-year time series initiated with the extraordinary losses in 2002 would likely miss common peak years (useful in gauging historical capacity) Read the entire page →
From page 160... ... Page 7-4 Even if only to provide a contrast, time series analysis remains a useful planning tool. If concerns exist pursuant to anomalous years of data, multiple analyses can use a variety of beginning and ending years. Read the entire page →
From page 161... ... Page 7-5 Like time series analysis, regression analysis is a useful tool to evaluate historical relationships between cargo growth and other econometric elements. However, it is an imperfect (wildly so in some circumstances) Read the entire page →
From page 162... ... Page 7-6 facilities planning as this analysis informs judgments about future demand for freighter positions and other related considerations. Carrier market share – possibly through the prism of ground handlers possibly serving multiple carriers in a common warehouse and ramp space – is necessary for calculating the individual utilization rates of cargo facilities. Read the entire page →
From page 163... ... Page 7-7 planners may use either (or both) the Airbus or Boeing forecasts for guidance. Read the entire page →
From page 164... ... Page 7-8 Potentially among the most illuminating sources of forecasts would be the air carriers which commonly develop in-house forecasts with 5-year increments being common for traffic and 5-10 year increments for fleet forecasts. Particularly at hub airports where a single carrier has a commanding share of belly cargo and at the many airports where FedEx and UPS may have combined market shares in excess of 90%, carrier forecasts would be invaluable. Read the entire page →
From page 165... ... Page 7-9 be required. Unlike passenger service that very often is daily, freighter service at many U.S. Read the entire page →
From page 166... ... Page 7-10 Table 7-2 Airport Master Planning Documents Reviewed and Analyzed. Airport City ACI Cargo Volume Rank 2011 Cargo Activity Prime Consultant Year Cargo Volume Forecast Method Boise Airport, BOI Boise, ID 74 Non hub Ricondo & Associates 2010 National and historic trends. Read the entire page →
From page 167... ... Page 7-11 Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport's forecasts provided relatively scarce detail pursuant to forecast methods. As the international gateway for DHL, the airport's cargo fortunes have tracked closely with the all-cargo carrier, especially since the demise of the former Delta Airlines hub at CVG. Read the entire page →
From page 168... ... Page 7-12 Appropriately, the tonnage forecasts acknowledged the dominant role of ELP in the area but in spite of finding that ELP could accommodate forecasted demand through 2025, the consultants still produced a cargo forecast for DOCA anticipating that the airport could capture growing maquiladora and local demand, regardless of the superiority of facilities and air service at ELP. The forecast estimated that 11,100 tons of annual enplaned air cargo could be captured by 2025 – equated to two daily Boeing 737300SF freighter operations. Read the entire page →
From page 169... ... Page 7-13 experience even while using very similar methodologies to those used at U.S. airports with more typical losses. Read the entire page →
From page 170... ... Page 7-14 lesser degree with San Jose. Forecasts were prepared through 2025 using 2003 as the base year for air cargo tonnage. Read the entire page →
From page 171... ... Page 7-15 GSO's limited belly cargo (900 MTs/year) were forecasted to merely be maintained. Read the entire page →
From page 172... ... Page 7-16 RISK ASSESSMENT A variety of forecast risks have already been referenced in preceding descriptions of individual methodologies. Rarely have such risks been more obvious than in recent years when air cargo forecasts have routinely diverged dramatically from actual results. Read the entire page →
From page 173... ... Page 7-17 SUMMARY Both in descriptions of methodologies and in examples from a dozen U.S. airports, this section summarized a variety of techniques used to forecast airports' cargo tonnage, as well as to derive all-cargo operations from that forecasted tonnage. Read the entire page →

From page 157...

... Page 7-1 CHAPTER 7: TASK 5 -- AIR CARGO FORECAST TECHNIQUES CHAPTER OVERVIEW The air cargo industry is faced with some of the most challenging forecast challenges of any industry. Forecasts based on historic trends analysis are increasingly less reliable as future trends cannot be solely based on activities and practices that have evolved into combined modes of both air and truck transport.