Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 6: The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand (2014) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 122-130
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122 1. The Issue ..................................................................................................................................123 2.
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123 This brief summarizes the research conducted and documented in NCHRP Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 6: The Effects of SocioDemographics on Future Travel Demand. It introduces the research need, presents how the research addresses the issues surrounding the need, discusses eight sociodemographic trends, describes Impacts 2050 and its scenarios, and concludes with a set of strategic responses transportation agencies might take when applying the scenarios.
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124 The effects of Socio-demographics on Future Travel demand It also addresses a gap inherent in current planning tools and models -- the inability to produce accurate long-range forecasts -- by introducing the tool Impacts 2050 to help transportation planners and decision makers apply a scenario approach. Users of this study will be in a position to improve their long-range planning and make better related decisions (Box 1)
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Research Brief 125 Trend 3: The Browning of America America is becoming "browner." The white population has grown more slowly than every other race group in the second half of the 20th century. • Drivers: Structural changes in population distribution by race/ethnicity, relatively high fertility rates among Hispanic women, continuing immigration in younger age groups.
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126 The effects of Socio-demographics on Future Travel demand 4. Impacts 2050 Impacts 2050 opens a window on how future socio-demographic changes could affect regional travel demand through the year 2050, and helps policymakers plan for those possibilities.
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Research Brief 127 Note that Impacts 2050 is not intended to replace existing travel demand forecast models. 4.1.1 A Strategic Model Impacts 2050 is a strategic model.
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128 The effects of Socio-demographics on Future Travel demand • Technology Triumphs -- Technology has saved us from ourselves. While the United States faced some difficult challenges in the 2010s, many of these have been mitigated by innovations that helped us live longer, reduce our carbon footprint, connect our world, and travel more easily and safely.
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Research Brief 129 • Land use: Changes in the amounts of commercial, housing, developable, and protected space in urban, suburban, and rural area types. • Transport supply: Changes in the amounts of freeway, arterial capacity, and regional transit service (bus, rail)
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Abbreviations and acronyms used without definitions in TRB publications: A4A Airlines for America AAAE American Association of Airport Executives AASHO American Association of State Highway Officials AASHTO American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials ACI–NA Airports Council International–North America ACRP Airport Cooperative Research Program ADA Americans with Disabilities Act APTA American Public Transportation Association ASCE American Society of Civil Engineers ASME American Society of Mechanical Engineers ASTM American Society for Testing and Materials ATA American Trucking Associations CTAA Community Transportation Association of America CTBSSP Commercial Truck and Bus Safety Synthesis Program DHS Department of Homeland Security DOE Department of Energy EPA Environmental Protection Agency FAA Federal Aviation Administration FHWA Federal Highway Administration FMCSA Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration FRA Federal Railroad Administration FTA Federal Transit Administration HMCRP Hazardous Materials Cooperative Research Program IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers ISTEA Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 ITE Institute of Transportation Engineers MAP-21 Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (2012) NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NASAO National Association of State Aviation Officials NCFRP National Cooperative Freight Research Program NCHRP National Cooperative Highway Research Program NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration NTSB National Transportation Safety Board PHMSA Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration RITA Research and Innovative Technology Administration SAE Society of Automotive Engineers SAFETEA-LU Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (2005)
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