Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 6: The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand (2014) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 23-29
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From page 23... ...
23 The goal of this research is to provide transportation planners and decision makers with an increased awareness of socio-demographic trends and how these may impact long-range transportation conditions or needs. This capability is delivered through the written findings and principles compiled in this final report, and also through analysis based on the application of a tool comprised of a SD model and scenarios.
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From page 24... ...
24 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand corridor and set of intersections, with the assumption that the changes being modeled will not significantly affect wider regional traffic patterns. In most cases, the number of trips entering the area at any given time of day is taken as a given, based on observed counts, so the demographic profile of travelers and possible changes in travel behavior (shifts in travel mode, destination, trip frequency, etc.)
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From page 25... ...
Study Approach: Scenario Planning and System Dynamics Model 25 This examination deduced that advanced, activity-based travel demand models have adopted an agent-based, micro-simulation approach, with greater spatial and temporal detail to better handle emerging issues. This approach is more realistic than older, aggregate-based approaches, and should lead to increased accuracy for certain short-term types of modeling and prediction.
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From page 26... ...
26 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand Scenario planning is one way transportation agencies can deal with such complexities. Scenarios are generally a way of thinking about the future.
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From page 27... ...
Study Approach: Scenario Planning and System Dynamics Model 27 Using the framework to develop the scenarios ensured that the scenarios focused on the joint effect of many factors and, thus, captured both the complexity and the uncertainties inherent in describing the impact of socio-demographics on travel demand. Relating this to the trends presented in Chapter 3, scenarios can help decision makers and planners to understand how the various strands of the complex tapestry of socio-demographic trends will move if one or more threads (or trends)
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From page 28... ...
28 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand variables, and calibrating the model to reproduce the time trends for those variables reasonably well. Because, as described below, the focus of such models is typically on exploring scenarios and policies, rather than producing long-term forecasts, there has been very little emphasis in the literature on exploring the predictive accuracy of the models over time.
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From page 29... ...
Study Approach: Scenario Planning and System Dynamics Model 29 The SD modeling approach is focused on model structure, using a framework based on physical entities that build up or diminish over time (stocks) , the rates of change in those entities (flows)
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