Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 6: The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand (2014) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 30-37
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From page 30... ...
30 5.1 Scenario Development and Assumption Testing Good scenarios are built on good data and contain alternative visions of how the data move forward. The process for developing and refining the research team's scenarios and the assumptions underlying them began by organizing the key trends outlined in Chapter 3, as well as other factors, into a broad set of key drivers: (1)
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From page 31... ...
Future Scenarios: Process and Narratives 31 • Participative -- Based on the premise that the knowledge and resources necessary to solve and implement the solution to a complex problem are distributed among a group of individuals that has been formed to represent alternative points of view. • Integrative -- Based on the premise that a unified set of assumptions and action plans is needed to guide decision making, and that what comes out of the adversarial and participative elements can, at some point, be unified.
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Factor Momentum Technology Triumphs Global Chaos Gentle Footprint Economic Growth Personal income, employment rates. Generally modest economic growth.
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Future Scenarios: Process and Narratives 33 Technology Triumphs → Tech Nirvana Technology deals with goals and ramification of goals, ever-evolving, and solutions come quickly; if there is a problem, technology solves it; global tech race is healthy and competitive; role of government is to respond to technological issues; people will travel less and faster because of technology; do people want to be "there" in person or travel electronically? Global Chaos → Neo-Isolationism Largely negative scenario: economic–political breakdowns, borders tighten up, supply chain and international travel (flows into United States)
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34 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand Scenario Stakeholders Assumptions Momentum Working People Shifts in type of job/training, job mobility; strong voting block; middle class lives comfortably, American dream alive; incomes to stay at reasonable level, personal mobility affordable; accept user fees for roads. Government (County)
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Future Scenarios: Process and Narratives 35 Scenario Assumptions Challenged Momentum Momentum Technology Triumphs Global Chaos Gentle Footprint N/A Demand-driven world. Global free market.
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36 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand America has become "grayer" as the Baby Boom generation has aged and "browner" as the white population has grown slower than every other racial group. Likewise, the U.S.
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From page 37... ...
Sectors Momentum Technology Triumphs Global Chaos Gentle Footprint Demographic Slow population growth. Population aging.
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