Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 6: The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand (2014) / Chapter Skim
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From page 38... ...
38 Impacts 2050 is a menu-driven spreadsheet model that state and regional transportation decision makers can use to play out the many ways that changing socio-demographic factors in a region may impact travel demand over time. The tool is designed to be a strategic model: Strategic models are an emerging trend in long-range planning, where there is an awareness that one cannot actually forecast the future, but that many scenario possibilities need to be studied so that a policy or investment strategy that minimizes risk, or moves towards some desired goal(s)
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From page 39... ...
Scenario Planning Tool: Impacts 2050 39 the system, such as those related to supplying new transportation infrastructure or new housing and commercial infrastructure. Even decisions to change residence or business locations can take some time to occur, so one cannot adjust immediately to changes in prices, congestion, job availability, etc.
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40 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand model. DELTA operates in one-year steps, with interaction with the local transport model typically occurring every two or five years, depending on the run times of the transport model.
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Scenario Planning Tool: Impacts 2050 41 over time, simulating the population's transitions from one category in each of these segments to another category over time (e.g., aging the population into different categories: 0–15, 16–29, 30–44, 45–59, 60–74, 75 and older)
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42 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand participation, immigration, and travel behavior across the scenarios. For example, auto VMT per capita in 2050 is much lower under the Global Chaos and Gentle Footprint scenarios than in the other two scenarios.
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Scenario Planning Tool: Impacts 2050 43 • Transportation system orientation: highway versus transit supply, congestion levels, commute mode share. • Location: major region of the country, as this tends to reflect era of development as well as various socio-demographic traits, such as age, household type, educational attainment, wealth, and housing.
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44 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand 6.4 Running Impacts 2050 for the Test Regions A set of quantitative indicators is built into Impacts 2050 (See Table 5-1 for the scenario framework, including the key indicators used in the scenario development.) The indicators are the results of the model simulations related to the scenarios.
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From page 45... ...
Scenario Planning Tool: Impacts 2050 45 Indicators 2010 Statistics Atlanta 2050 Projection Momentum Tech Triumphs Global Chaos Gentle Footprint Auto VMT per capita 11,115 10,251 11,461 5,451 4,167 Percent noncar owning 2.5% 3.0% 2.5% 5.2% 4.1% Percent car-sharing 22% 22% 17% 34% 29% Average car occupancy 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.8 Transit mode share 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% Walk/bike mode share 11% 11% 10% 19% 22% Work trips per capita 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 Nonwork trips per capita 2.9 3.0 2.9 1.7 1.7 Population 5,262,023 8,225,550 7,205,888 5,694,525 7,910,911 Percent under 16 22% 23% 20% 17% 15% Percent over age 60 14% 19% 23% 19% 27% Percent over age 75 4% 6% 9% 4% 9% Percent Hispanic 8% 12% 11% 11% 13% Percent low income 32% 33% 28% 51% 36% Percent high income 19% 27% 32% 17% 26% Percent foreign-born 16% 13% 11% 11% 24% Percent in workforce 47% 39% 46% 43% 48% Table 6-2. 2010 statistics and 2050 projections in atlanta by scenario.
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46 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand Indicators 2010 Statistics Detroit 2050 Projection Momentum Tech Triumphs Global Chaos Gentle Footprint Auto VMT per capita 10,126 9,580 10,586 4,886 3,775 Percent noncar owning 3.0% 3.3% 2.8% 5.4% 4.5% Percent car-sharing 31% 30% 25% 45% 38% Average car occupancy 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.8 Transit mode share 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% Walk/bike mode share 11% 12% 11% 20% 23% Work trips per capita 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 Nonwork trips per capita 3.6 3.7 3.6 2.2 2.2 Population 4,372,010 5,245,748 4,663,877 3,764,011 5,251,724 Percent under 16 20% 22% 19% 17% 15% Percent over age 60 18% 20% 25% 20% 28% Percent over age 75 6% 7% 10% 5% 10% Percent Hispanic 3% 5% 4% 4% 5% Percent low income 26% 31% 27% 49% 35% Percent high income 20% 28% 34% 18% 27% Percent foreign-born 11% 12% 10% 10% 24% Percent in workforce 44% 39% 46% 42% 47% Table 6-4. 2010 statistics and 2050 projections in detroit by scenario.
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From page 47... ...
Scenario Planning Tool: Impacts 2050 47 loops for the different sectors. Looking at the universal changes across regions for this scenario, Impacts 2050 results seem to indicate auto VMT per capita will drop, walk/bike mode share will increase, and people over age 60 will comprise a much larger share of the regional population.
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From page 48... ...
48 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand Houston, under the Momentum scenario, will experience a population increase of slightly more than 3 million people in 2050 -- about the same projected increase as for Atlanta (see Table 6-5)
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Scenario Planning Tool: Impacts 2050 49 will be both older and younger. The percentage of workers will decrease by almost 10 percentage points.
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Note: M= Momentum, TT=Tech Triumphs, GF=Gentle Footprint, GC=Global Chaos Legend: M TT GC GF M TT GC GF M TT GC GF M TT GC GF M TT GC GF Auto VMT per capita Percent non-car owning Percent car-sharing Average car occupancy Transit mode share Walk/bike mode share Work trips per capita Non-work trips per capita Population (millions) Percent under 16 Percent over age 60 Percent over age 75 Percent Hispanic Percent low income Percent high income Percent foreign born Percent in workforce Seattle Indicator Atlanta Boston Detroit Houston greater than 25% increase 10-25% increase -10% to 10% change 10-25% decrease greater than 25% decrease Table 6-7.
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Scenario Planning Tool: Impacts 2050 51 consideration and discussion, participants discovered other uses for Impacts 2050 beyond its contribution to the development of their long-range plans. • There was agreement that Impacts 2050's scenario analysis function will be useful to transportation agencies.
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