The National Academies Press

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Pages 72-76

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From page 72... ... 72 In Chapter 2, we posited the question of why transportation agencies would want to go through all the trouble of using our new tool, based on a complicated SD model, to explore emerging trends and create possible futures. The reason to us is simple: to increase the chance of making better decisions. Read the entire page →
From page 73... ... Opportunities for Improved Decision Making 73 • Increasingly more rapid technological change, and • A fiscally constrained operating environment. Agencies can also expect that: • They will have less time to respond to market/constituency requests, • They will be less able to forecast market conditions and constituency needs, • The places they normally go to get money and things done will be under pressure to change, and • The ability to find, much less talk to, mass markets through a single communication medium where they control the message content will continue to decrease. Read the entire page →
From page 74... ... 74 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand were made up of replaceable parts -- like pieces in jigsaw puzzles. The metaphor fit reasonably well for that era. Read the entire page →
From page 75... ... Opportunities for Improved Decision Making 75 9.4 Doing Better The current practice of long-term planning relies on point prediction in an uncertain future. The predictions are updated at certain intervals (every 10, 15, 20 years) Read the entire page →
From page 76... ... 76 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand 2. Refining the transition rates within the demographic sector. Read the entire page →

From page 72...

... 72 In Chapter 2, we posited the question of why transportation agencies would want to go through all the trouble of using our new tool, based on a complicated SD model, to explore emerging trends and create possible futures. The reason to us is simple: to increase the chance of making better decisions.

Read the entire page →

From page 73...

... Opportunities for Improved Decision Making 73 • Increasingly more rapid technological change, and • A fiscally constrained operating environment. Agencies can also expect that: • They will have less time to respond to market/constituency requests, • They will be less able to forecast market conditions and constituency needs, • The places they normally go to get money and things done will be under pressure to change, and • The ability to find, much less talk to, mass markets through a single communication medium where they control the message content will continue to decrease.

Read the entire page →

From page 74...

... 74 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand were made up of replaceable parts -- like pieces in jigsaw puzzles. The metaphor fit reasonably well for that era.

Read the entire page →

From page 75...

... Opportunities for Improved Decision Making 75 9.4 Doing Better The current practice of long-term planning relies on point prediction in an uncertain future. The predictions are updated at certain intervals (every 10, 15, 20 years)

Read the entire page →

From page 76...

... 76 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand 2. Refining the transition rates within the demographic sector.

Read the entire page →

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