Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 6: The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand (2014) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 81-90
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From page 81... ...
81 A.1 Momentum Scenario Momentum Scenario Synopsis The current state of the country in 2050 would still be recognizable to any transportation planner who had worked in the year 2010. Change has been incremental based primarily on population dynamics, and we have not experienced any major shifts from prevailing demographic, economic, or technology trends.
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From page 82... ...
82 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand Economic Growth The economy, after recovering from the Great Recession of 2008, has been fairly reliable -- not growing enormously, but not sputtering either. Labor Force America's labor force growth rate is declining relative to the second half of the 20th century, mostly because of structural changes in the labor force.
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From page 83... ...
Scenario Narratives 83 Energy and Energy and transportation technologies have not changed very much Sustainability in the past few decades. Oil prices have continued their cyclical journey upward -- occasional spikes followed by retreats.
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From page 84... ...
84 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand Technology Advances Personal devices continued to evolve and gain in computing power as well as security, and competition led to both falling prices and widespread access and adoption. The reach of the Web of Things where just about everything (people, homes, cars, objects on the street)
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From page 85... ...
Scenario Narratives 85 parents have technology options for remaining in their own homes, and young people are moving into their own residences because they can afford to. Young adults are opting to delay marriage with greater social opportunities provided by "virtual" living.
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From page 86... ...
86 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand A.3 Global Chaos Scenario Global Chaos Scenario Synopsis The past few decades have challenged Americans' general optimism, and the world has become a far different and more difficult place in 2050. Several trends intersected to bring about a distressing new normal: growing financial instability at a global scale, a continuing Great Recession in the United States, the increasing and visible impact of climate change, and a reactionary sense of new isolationism.
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From page 87... ...
Scenario Narratives 87 locations are negatively affected by more powerful storms, leading to massive coastal flooding, the devastating change is in food production. Many formerly fertile areas -- the American Midwest, Australia, Ukraine -- are subject to extreme droughts beginning in the late 2010s.
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From page 88... ...
88 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand Transportation With state and local governments collecting relatively little revenue, Finance they have a hard time maintaining the existing infrastructure or responding to crises, like returning travel to normal after a major storm, much less investing in new capacity. A.4 Gentle Footprint Scenario Gentle Footprint Scenario Synopsis After droughts and "superstorms" begin plaguing the United States in the 2010s, both public consciousness and political will in the 2020s begin shifting toward taking more serious action to slow climate change.
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From page 89... ...
Scenario Narratives 89 supermarkets, food miles and calories share space on the same information panel. As people eat better and walk more, obesity has declined, and life expectancy has increased.
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From page 90... ...
90 The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand travel between those cities. Air travel has reverted to being a mode for the affluent, and airlines log fewer miles now.
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