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Pages 159-185

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From page 159... ... 159 159 Demographic Factors (population size, characteristics, and magnitude) 163 Economic Growth and Public-Sector Spending on Transportation 170 Energy (includes transportation energy uses and fuel prices) Read the entire page →
From page 160... ... 160 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies change, see U.S. Bureau of the Census (2000) Read the entire page →
From page 161... ... Detailed Descriptions of Drivers 161 A megaregion is a geographically clustered network of cities and suburban areas that are brought together via shared infrastructure, economic interests, settlement and land use patterns, and a common environmental, geographical, and topographical focus (Regional Plan Association, 2006) Read the entire page →
From page 162... ... 162 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies methods (Regional Plan Association, 2006) Read the entire page →
From page 163... ... Detailed Descriptions of Drivers 163 Using these two scenarios, the research team identified two potential paths forward for the United States: • Megaregion Future: Population and economic activity continue to concentrate in mega regions that are bound together with increasing infrastructure and economic ties. • Decentralized Future: Population is distributed more evenly across the nation, with a revival in suburbs, small towns, and mediumsize cities as technology allows people to live and work where they want. Read the entire page →
From page 164... ... 164 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies Other TRB reports relevant to this driver This section provides an overview of economic issues. NCHRP Report 750, Volume 1: Scenario Planning for Freight Transportation Infrastructure Investment provides a detailed discussion of economic issues as they affect freight, including potential broad economic changes and freight and transportation energy scenarios. Read the entire page →
From page 165... ... Detailed Descriptions of Drivers 165 Trends Based on historical growth in U.S. GDP over the past century and half, the U.S. Read the entire page →
From page 166... ... 166 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies • Low-growth case: The low economic growth rate case expresses a noncrisis scenario with overall depressed growth. This case assumes lower growth rates for popula - tion (compatible with low estimates from U.S. Read the entire page →
From page 167... ... Detailed Descriptions of Drivers 167 (adjusted for inflation) doubles every 15 years (Hanson, 2008) Read the entire page →
From page 168... ... 168 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies into the future. Appendix B provides detailed backup data and assumptions related to this analysis. Read the entire page →
From page 169... ... Detailed Descriptions of Drivers 169 Potential Outcome Growth of GDP Spending on Transportation User Fees and Congestion Pricing Public Accepts Public Rejects Economic Decline Case After 2020, GDP falls by 8% over the next 30 years. Spending on transportation for federal, state, and local governments stays at the historic average, with the federal government gradually reducing its role over time. Read the entire page →
From page 170... ... 170 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies Energy (includes transportation energy uses and fuel prices) This driver involves the future patterns of energy use and future transportation fuel prices. Read the entire page →
From page 171... ... Detailed Descriptions of Drivers 171 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Moderate GDP Growth Case $2.82 $4.28 $4.89 $5.76 $6.77 High GDP Growth Case $2.82 $4.42 $5.14 $6.05 $7.12 Low GDP Growth Case $2.82 $4.17 $4.77 $5.41 $6.05 High Oil Price Case $2.82 $7.60 $8.38 $8.82 $9.23 Low Oil Price Case $2.82 $1.88 $1.87 $1.88 $1.89 $ $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.00 $9.00 $10.00 (2008 Dollars, assumes 2008 Tax Mix) Figure A-8. Read the entire page →
From page 172... ... 172 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies Significance Climate change, environmental change, and resource availability are critical determinants of the ability of the economy to grow and flourish in the 21st century. In particular, the state of the environment will be a critical determinant of the challenges and opportunities that state transportation agencies face in supporting a sustainable transportation system and a sustainable society (Matsushita and Helten, 2001) Read the entire page →
From page 173... ... Detailed Descriptions of Drivers 173 Environment Transportation Activities Impacts Environment Economy Society Responses Organization Behavior Innovation Policy Environmental Challenges Economy Society Stresses Challenges, Opportunities Figure A-9. Relationship between transportation systems and the environment. Read the entire page →
From page 174... ... 174 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies problems. Based on this view, and what proponents claim to be scientific consensus, it is argued that environmental and resource change will be relatively gradual in the first half of the 21st century and that a variety of market, technological, and regulatory responses will be able to manage these changes successfully. Read the entire page →
From page 175... ... Detailed Descriptions of Drivers 175 Information and communications technologies may affect how drivers and passengers interact with vehicles and how vehicles interact with each other and the infrastructure itself. Drivers are already familiar with in-vehicle systems such as OnStar and Sync, which provide drivers with information about their vehicles and with access to vehicle diagnostics and entertainment systems. Read the entire page →
From page 176... ... 176 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies Other TRB reports relevant to this driver This section provides an overview of transportation technology trends. NCHRP Report 750, Volume 3: Expediting Future Technologies for Enhancing Transportation System Performance provides a detailed discussion of transportation technology. Read the entire page →
From page 177... ... Detailed Descriptions of Drivers 177 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Pe rc en ta ge o f A do p on COTS Only Technology has been developed but is not adopted by either individuals or systems Initial Adoption Limited network adoption (e.g., trial or pilot basis) <5% individual adoption Limited Adoption Expanding network adoption ~10% individual adoption Moderate Adoption Widespread network adoption ~50% individual adoption High Adoption Near universal network adoption >90% individual adoption Increasing Adoption of Technology Figure A-11. Read the entire page →
From page 178... ... 178 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies use zoning and urban planning drive the uses of different tracts of land. If political situations change as expected across scenarios, the ability and role of government authorities to organize land use may differ between the future scenarios. Read the entire page →
From page 179... ... Detailed Descriptions of Drivers 179 Significance How transportation will be different in various scenarios must be considered so that expected changes can be accommodated. Changes likely will affect mobility, safety, and the systems' ability to be sustainable. Read the entire page →
From page 180... ... 180 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies infrastructure (National Surface Transportation Infrastructure Financing Commission, 2009; National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Commission, 2007) Read the entire page →
From page 181... ... Detailed Descriptions of Drivers 181 Centralization and Decentralization The degree of centralization and decentralization in the control of the transportation system will be vitally important to the future organizing principles of state transportation agencies. Read the entire page →
From page 182... ... 182 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies In addition to uncertainty about the future of the federal role, there are similar uncertainties regarding the role of state governments. As with the federal government, state governments face several challenges, including, but not limited to, the following: • Resource-demand mismatch (i.e., increasing demands on state governments, but a lack of resources to meet those demands, especially in states with statutory balanced-budget requirements) Read the entire page →
From page 183... ... Detailed Descriptions of Drivers 183 maintain. Investment, management, and control focus on megaregions and MPOs. Read the entire page →
From page 184... ... 184 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies MPO and megaregional organizations dominate transportation planning and management MPOs and megaregional organizations dominate transportation planning and management with strong federal cooperation State transportation agencies dominate transportation planning and management Federal government dominates transportation planning and management devolving execution and oversight to the states Funding Mechanism Limited Private Role Significant Private Role Limited Private Role Significant Private Role Limited Private Role Significant Private Role Limited Private Role Significant Private Role Mechanisms and Sources (greater transit frequency; more access and mobility) Read the entire page →
From page 185... ... Detailed Descriptions of Drivers 185 Martenson, C Read the entire page →

From page 159...

... 159 159 Demographic Factors (population size, characteristics, and magnitude) 163 Economic Growth and Public-Sector Spending on Transportation 170 Energy (includes transportation energy uses and fuel prices)