Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 4: Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies (2014) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 73-82
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From page 73... ...
73 Using the approach described in the previous chapter, the research team developed five scenarios: Crisis World, Mega World, Suburban World, Wonder World, and Green World. In developing these scenarios, the research team made the following key assumptions with the identified caveats and limitations: C H A P T E R 4 Description of Scenarios • All scenarios assume that there will be no major international war involving the United States, social or economic collapse, or technological singularity [i.e., extremely rapid convergence of technologies leading to a huge acceleration of technological progress and economic growth; for a full description of what is envisioned under a "singularity" scenario, see Garrean (2005)
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74 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies In terms of negative scenarios, the research team developed a very negative scenario, Crisis World, in which slow economic growth, rapid environmental degradation, and slow technology improvement combine to create a world where the United States faces a series of crises that place considerable stress on the transportation system and the ability of state transportation agencies to meet basic transportation needs. The research team developed two mid-range scenarios: Mega World and Suburban World.
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Description of Scenarios 75 Scenario Story -- How the World Might Change: Crisis World After the financial crisis of 2008, the initial optimism for a 2012–2013 recovery stalls.
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76 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies collapse, leading to mass migrations. Arizona, southern California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah all face major water shortages during record heat waves, major wildfires, and dust storms [see Morello (2010)
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From page 77... ...
Description of Scenarios 77 However, after promising starts, rapid increases in the price of fuel lead to public protests against congestion pricing, which in turn lead to a general rollback in congestion pricing and even to the reduction or abolition of the gas tax in some states. As a result, only a few cities are able to retain congestion-pricing policies.
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78 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies general tendency toward urban concentration and mixed land use; in Suburban World, there is a more decentralized society. Scenario Story -- How the World Might Change: Mega World After the challenges of the first decade of the 21st century, the next 40 years are relatively quiet for the United States and are recognized as a period of slow but steady improvement in the lives of the American people.
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From page 79... ...
Description of Scenarios 79 projected range, technology is anticipated to develop along all anticipated paths, and there is slow adoption of new transportation funding mechanisms. However, unlike Mega World, technology allows people to live in a variety of settings that best suit their preferences (in the 20th century, these preferences were clearly toward greater decentralization)
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80 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies governments. These governments, closer to and more representative of the people, are able to develop clear consensuses about user fees and pay-for-use transportation systems.
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Description of Scenarios 81 such that despite the aging population, people remained active, working and using transportation well into their 80s. Carbon fuels still play an important role in the economy, but they are being rapidly phased out for more carbon-neutral modes (e.g., fusion and super-efficient solar for electrical power generation, super-fuels for automobiles)
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From page 82... ...
82 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies Scenario Story -- How the World Might Change: Green World The first half of the 21st century sees development of a broad social and political consensus on the need to develop a sustainable society. Consumer choice and public decisions push investment into green technologies, which leads to the development of an entire suite of green technologies by 2050.
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