Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 4: Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies (2014) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 83-92
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From page 83... ...
83 As discussed in Section 2.2, changes in policy systems may occur in response to two types of changes: exogenous changes and endogenous changes. Exogenous changes largely result from shocks and from gradual changes over time.
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84 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies Table 30. Exogenous change of transportation agencies under different scenarios.
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Scenario Demands and Resources Green World Move to more sustainable TBL-focused transportation policy Maintain and expand mobility Afford multiple opportunities for public participation Shift existing infrastructure and transportation systems toward more green systems, including decommissioning older, nonsustainable infrastructure Shift of resources toward concentrated megacity areas Shift of resources away from less efficient, less sustainable, less dense area Gas tax revenue does not keep up with requirements, but other resources are available Growth in user fees Green taxes and other revenue sources that encourage sustainable behavior Table 31. (Continued)
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86 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies 5.1 Crisis World Crisis World is the scenario where acute events and transportation disasters are most likely to provide the shock necessary to provoke change. Potential impacts of such events are shown in Figure 12.
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Northeast • Extreme heat, declining air quality cause problems for human health • Agricultural producon declines • Severe flooding occurs more frequently. • Winter tourism declines • Fishing industry declines.
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88 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies federal government, given fiscal constraints, gradually will reduce its role in transportation. Combined with a lack of technological progress and dramatic increases in resource prices, there will be limited resources to address these problems.
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Future Challenges and Opportunities for Agencies 89 • Centralization will create a number of left-behind regions outside the megaregions that are trapped in long-term decay, economic decline, and depopulation crisis. This will create profound social and economic equity issues that must be addressed.
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90 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies • A need for new transportation revenue sources arises as new sources of fuel and propulsion are used. At the same time, new opportunities also will be created: • Resources may be available to support an expanding sustainability-based transportation system.
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From page 91... ...
Future Challenges and Opportunities for Agencies 91 Even if one does not accept Kurzweil's vision, there are ample opportunities for major disruptive technologies to emerge between now and 2050, such as the following: • Development of new alternative fuels or power systems (e.g., vehicle-to-grid electric cars,7 as-yet unknown biotech-developed super-fuels) and carbon-neutral fuels (i.e., fuels that remove GHG from the atmosphere)
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From page 92... ...
92 Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies 5.4 Green World Green World assumes a radical social shift in favor of a green and sustainable future. Although at first sight this scenario may seem extremely positive, it will produce many pressures for change.
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