Dynamic, Integrated Model System: Jacksonville-Area Application (2013) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 111-118
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111 C h A P T e r 3 Purposes Travel demand forecasting model systems are only able to test the effects of policies and assumptions which have been explicitly included when the system is designed and implemented; they are not intrinsically sensitive to the increasingly broad range of transportation policies and improvements of interest to decision makers. While most regional models are sensitive to large-scale assumptions about land use and demographics, few are sensitive to more detailed assumptions about pricing policies or to traffic or travel demand management strategies.
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112 The sensitivity tests documented in this report were performed using the Burlington implementation of the model system. Use of this smaller region allowed for more rapid testing and debugging of a greater number of scenarios.
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113 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 03 :0 0 04 :0 0 05 :0 0 06 :0 0 07 :0 0 08 :0 0 09 :0 0 10 :0 0 11 :0 0 12 :0 0 13 :0 0 14 :0 0 15 :0 0 16 :0 0 17 :0 0 18 :0 0 19 :0 0 20 :0 0 21 :0 0 22 :0 0 23 :0 0 00 :0 0 01 :0 0 02 :0 0 BASE-WORK PRICING_5-WORK BASE-SOCREC PRICING_5-SOCREC Figure 3.2. Percentage of daily work and social/recreational trips by time of day, by freeway tolling scenario.
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114 Figure 3.2 illustrates that the trip making by time-of-day affects different purposes differently, with the work purpose distributions (blue) relatively unaffected, but the social/recreational distributions (red)
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115 increase in shorter trips and decrease in longer trips associated with the highest assumed auto operating costs. Figure 3.6 shows per capita changes in vehicle miles traveled (VMT)
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116 Figure 3.6. Per capita changes in VMT between baseline and x5 auto operating cost scenario.
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117 the daily activity pattern of each individual in the region, it can be used to reflect the effect of workers working fewer days but longer hours. However, this sensitivity is purely scenario-based.
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118 schedule policy; this reduction occurs across all types of facilities throughout the region. Operations Signal Progression Operational strategies, also known as transportation system management (TSM)
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