Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook (2013) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 18-30
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From page 18... ...
18 Demand General Public Rural Two methods are available to estimate the demand expected for passenger transportation in rural areas not related to social-service programs. A third method for estimation of demand for general public transportation (i.e., service used as reported to the rural NTD)
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Demand 19 data are entered in an Excel spreadsheet. Other spreadsheet software will have similar functions.)
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20 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation General Public (Non-program) Demand Function Based on analysis of data collected in workshops and reported to the Rural National Transit Database for 2009, the following function was developed to produce reasonable estimates of the demand for general public, or non-program, passenger transportation in rural areas: Non-program Demand (trips per year)
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Demand 21 * Table B08201 provides values for households with no vehicle available.
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22 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation section titled Example Computation – Population Segments Method. The figure for persons with a mobility limitation can be pulled from the figure for persons "with an independent living difficulty." Persons in this category are thought to be the group most likely to require passenger transportation services.
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Demand 23 social-service program)
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24 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation This method can also be used to compare the change in demand associated with an expansion or reduction in service. Use Table 13 to estimate demand.
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Figure 19. ACS Table B08201 Results – Archuleta County, CO (Example)
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26 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation Once the above data has been collected, use the following equation to estimate demand: Number of Program Participants × Program Events per Week × the Proportion of Program Participants who attend the Program on an Average Day × the Proportion of Program Participants that are Transit Dependent or Likely to Use the Transit Service provided/funded by the Agency × the Number of Weeks per Year the Program is Offered × 2 (trips per participant per event) Example Computation–Program Trips Table 15 shows data for a meal program as an example calculation using the method above.
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Demand 27 Use the total enrollment, summed over all institutions, for either the current year or the planning year in the equation above to estimate the ridership that can be expected on a small fixed-route system in an area of less than 50,000 population and less than 70 vehicle-hours of service per day. This method was developed using information from the Rural NTD.
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28 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation Commuters to Urban Centers The function developed for estimating the demand for commuter passenger transportation from a rural county to another county is given by Commuter trips by transit from County to Urban Center per Day = Proportion Using Transit for Commuter Trips from Rural County to Urban Place × Number of Commuters × 2 Proportion Using Transit for Commuter Trips from Rural County to Urban Place = 0.024 + (0.0000056 × Workers Commuting from Rural County to Urban Place) - (0.00029 × Distance in Miles from Rural County to Urban Place)
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Demand 29 Figure 21.
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30 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation who live in the area/county. Select Destination for Analysis Type, which will identify the place people travel from their home to work.
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