Long-Distance and Rural Travel Transferable Parameters for Statewide Travel Forecasting Models (2012) / Chapter Skim
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1 The modeling of long-distance trips in statewide models differs from that of urban and regional models that focus on differentiating home-based from nonhome-based trips. Long-distance trips are more likely to be divided into categories by frequency of travel or by purpose such as recreational/tourist versus business-oriented trips.
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2 Long-Distance and rural Travel Transferable Parameters for Statewide Travel Forecasting models The American Travel Survey (ATS) (http://www.transtats.bts.gov/Tables.asp?
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Summary 3 among other model parameters, for estimating rural and long-distance travel. The final report for NCHRP Statewide Model Validation Study (Cambridge Systematics, Inc., 2010d)
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4 Long-Distance and rural Travel Transferable Parameters for Statewide Travel Forecasting models Clearly, long-distance model parameters should be derived from surveys with a statistically valid sample of such trip-makers. Rural model parameters require a survey with both urban and rural resident components in order to ensure that the resulting rates are in fact the result of differences in residential and/or work location and not just due to error in survey execution or design.
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Summary 5 includes Friday after 6:00 p.m. (teleconference with Adella Santos, FHWA; Vidya Mysore and Frank Tabatabaee, Florida DOT; and Rob Schiffer, Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
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6 Long-Distance and rural Travel Transferable Parameters for Statewide Travel Forecasting models Demographic profiles are also helpful, defining household characteristics such as size, life cycle, income, and/or number of workers by worker status and occupation. An interesting topic, should such data be available, would be to include comparisons of Internet availability and use this information to impute if rural households are more or less likely to shop online, based on a lack of options to shop locally.
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Summary 7 rural trip-making and whether certain parameters should be stratified for different conditions such as urban clusters and proximity to urbanized area boundaries. Existing statewide models also played a significant role in this analytical plan, in terms of quantifying reasonableness ranges against which to compare resulting ATS/NHTS survey-based model parameters.
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8 Long-Distance and rural Travel Transferable Parameters for Statewide Travel Forecasting models efforts started with a focus on attributes contained within the NHTS 2009 "DOT version" of the database, including the Claritas attributes described earlier. The following attributes from the 2009 NHTS DOT version were used to identify potential rural typologies: • URBAN -- Identifies whether or not the home address is located in an urban area, typically defined as a concentrated area with a population of 50,000 or greater.
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Summary 9 appended to an NHTS Census Tract/Block Group shapefile. Once the 2009 NHTS DOT database was joined to the NHTS CT/BG shapefile by a Census Tract/Block Group ID number, the households were spatially referenced to the Block Group.
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10 Long-Distance and rural Travel Transferable Parameters for Statewide Travel Forecasting models from the GPS household survey database fall within a range similar to the NHTS, Michigan, and Ohio household person trip rates. The impact of the recent economic recession on 2009 NHTS trip rates is unknown at this time and beyond the scope of this research effort.
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