Methodologies to Estimate the Economic Impacts of Disruptions to the Goods Movement System (2012) / Chapter Skim
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43 4.1 Introduction Case studies were conducted to apply the concepts identified in the economic impact analysis methodology presented in Figure 3-1. The case studies encompass different freight modes, including rail, highway, ports, maritime, and inland waterways, and cover impacts at the local, regional, and national scales.
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44 Methodologies to estimate the economic Impacts of Disruptions to the Goods Movement System and major damage also occurred to the Gothic Avenue and Bull Creek bridges in the western San Fernando Valley along SR-118 (see Figure 4-1)
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Case Studies 45 vehicles per day. The traffic on the affected section of I-5 dropped 59 percent immediately due to lack of alternative routes (Zhu and Levinson 2008)
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46 Methodologies to estimate the economic Impacts of Disruptions to the Goods Movement System based on counts taken about 10 weeks into the recovery, with significant increases in parallel arterial street volumes in the vicinity of the damaged roadway. An Automated Traffic Surveillance and Control (ATSAC)
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Case Studies 47 There was little use of alternative transportation modes (rail or air modes)
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48 Methodologies to estimate the economic Impacts of Disruptions to the Goods Movement System almost $731 million was attributed to commuting time losses, with the rest assigned to business logistics issues. In round figures, the authors attributed costs associated with restrictions on customer access to $272 million ($229 million within the 5-county Southern California region)
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Case Studies 49 Timeframe of Disruption I-5 was closed for 4 consecutive days from December 3 through the morning of December 7 of 2007, with some limited capacity to handle heavier trucks late on December 6th. Beginning in late January, less than 2 months after the Chehalis area flooding closed I-5, the state experienced another major highway system disruption.
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50 Methodologies to estimate the economic Impacts of Disruptions to the Goods Movement System of losing drivers due to federally mandated Hours of Service regulations, which require truck drivers to take a 10-hour rest period after 11 hours of driving.) Many trucks instead chose to take U.S.
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Case Studies 51 north-south corridor for both freight and auto traffic" and "I-90 is the longest Interstate highway in the United States, stretching from Seattle to Boston. It is the main highway route for east-west commerce in the state linking Puget Sound to Spokane in eastern Washington.
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52 Methodologies to Estimate the Economic Impacts of Disruptions to the Goods Movement System also broke down its economic impact estimates for the trucking industry and freight-dependent sectors within each of the state's seven major geographical regions, noting similar impact across all regions other than the coastal region, where the I-5 closure impacts were noticeably more severe. The study also provides some interesting qualitative business firm specific case study reports.
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Case Studies 53 A September 27, 2002, Report for Congress on the subject starts with, "The tragedy of September 11, 2001, was so sudden and devastating that it may be difficult at this point in time to write dispassionately and objectively about its effects on the U.S. economy" (Makinen 2002)
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54 Methodologies to estimate the economic Impacts of Disruptions to the Goods Movement System Assessments of the impact of 9/11 on the supply chain conclude that the greatest disruptions to the supply chain appeared to have resulted from the border closures. "The severe tightening of border controls following the September attacks resulted in long waiting times that disrupted the operations of manufacturing companies, especially at the U.S.-Canada border" (OECD 2002)
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Case Studies 55 traffic along pre-9/11 lines. It was noted by port officials that the 2002 West Coast Port Strike had a much greater impact on ports -- in the aftermath of the strike, major shippers adopted a "port diversification" policy.
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56 Methodologies to Estimate the Economic Impacts of Disruptions to the Goods Movement System Taft-Hartley Act. However, ILWU members continued their systematic work slowdown and PMA reported a significant productivity decline.
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Case Studies 57 Step 3: Define Supply Chain Characteristics and Parameters by Flow Type The port shutdown not only affected maritime traffic, but also had a spillover effect with respect to other modes. Truckers were unable to return containers to the port terminals or to pick up new cargo, railroads lost shipping business to and from ports, and air cargo saw a slight increase.
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58 Methodologies to estimate the economic Impacts of Disruptions to the Goods Movement System Burlington Northern and Santa Fe Railways lost their container business serving the ports (normally 4,000–7,000 units per day) during the shutdown, but claimed that much of that traffic was either shipped before or after the shutdown, resulting in minimal loss overall (Zuckerman 2002)
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Case Studies 59 (2006) point out that the lockout saw a significant (short-term)
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60 Methodologies to estimate the economic Impacts of Disruptions to the Goods Movement System Transportation Facilities and Services Impacted I-40 traffic had to be rerouted through local roads, and Arkansas River barge traffic on the McClellan-Kerr Arkansas River Navigation System into and out of Tulsa's Port of Catoosa was stopped for about 2 weeks (Pant et al.
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Case Studies 61 % Source: Estimates by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (Regional flows) and Battelle memorial Institute (National flows)
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62 Methodologies to estimate the economic Impacts of Disruptions to the Goods Movement System 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 JUL JUN MAY Source: Tulsa Port of Catoosa, http://www.tulsaport.com/about_our_waterway.html Figure 4-10. May, June, and July tonnages through Tulsa Port of Catoosa, 1985–2010.
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Case Studies 63 Waterway (inland barge) traffic was also disrupted for a short period of time.
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64 Methodologies to estimate the economic Impacts of Disruptions to the Goods Movement System cost of about $17.50 per delay hour, with eastbound delays on the order of 45 to 50 minutes and westbound delays on the order of 15 to 20 minutes. At the Port of Catoosa, some 50 firms that relied heavily on the waterway for supplies reported losses of some $300,000 a day in revenue when the waterway was closed.
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Case Studies 65 The result was a fire within the tunnel that lasted 5 days (Figure 4-13)
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66 Methodologies to estimate the economic Impacts of Disruptions to the Goods Movement System Step 2: Identify Current and Future Affected Network Flows by Facility and Link The Howard Street Tunnel is owned by CSX and used solely for the railroad's freight trains. CSX describes the route as a "merchandise corridor" -- predominately carload traffic, with some coal, some intermodal, and some auto traffic.
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Case Studies 67 While the predominant impact was on the rail freight system on a multi-state level, the fire caused disruptions to businesses and surface transportation activities in the Baltimore area. The ITS Program Office report noted that, "The closing of Howard Street and the surrounding area in essence cut Baltimore's central business district in half, closing off east-west traffic flows" (see Figure 4-15)
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68 Methodologies to estimate the economic Impacts of Disruptions to the Goods Movement System CSX also worked to manage reputational damage. The railroad sent claims personnel out immediately.
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