Addressing Uncertainty about Future Airport Activity Levels in Airport Decision Making (2012) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 114-121
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120 Chapter 4 summarizes the state of the practice in incorporating uncertainty into aviation demand forecasting. This appendix provides more detailed information from the research that was conducted in this area.
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121 was used to forecast passenger demand between 2005 and 2020. Demand projections developed using this model could account for uncertainty in service growth resulting from additional air carrier operations.
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122 pendent variables or occurrence of rare events) are typically not addressed.
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123 tory variables (X) and numerically integrating out their joint densities.
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124 As noted by the authors, although it was assumed that the distributions of annual growth rates are independent, this assumption should be formally tested in future applications, and correlation factors should be introduced where needed. The authors also question the time-invariant property of the distribution of annual growth rates resulting -- mechanically -- in a widening of the range of probable traffic levels over time.
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125 2015 assessments described in Baden et al. were based on arrival delays, forecast on the basis of NAS-wide demand and capacity (Baden et al., 2007)
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126 increases due to unknown-unknown events. That adjustment is reduced -- along with the probability of cost growth -- as the project progresses and more risks are being recognized.
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127 6. Ability to assign a probability to different outcomes; 7.
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