Addressing Uncertainty about Future Airport Activity Levels in Airport Decision Making (2012) / Chapter Skim
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S U M M A R Y The management and planning of airports depends heavily on projections of the future requirements of a wide range of airport users and stakeholders (airlines, passengers, other commercial customers, government and regulators, lenders, and so forth) over a long-term horizon.
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2robustness of airport planning and decision making. It is designed to augment standard master planning and strategic planning approaches with methodologies that directly address risk and uncertainty and allow the incorporation of relevant risk mitigation measures.
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3 • Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport: significant change in traffic mix. The airport experienced a significant shift in traffic mix due to the downsizing by US Airways and the growth of Southwest Airlines, causing underutilization of the international terminal and congestion in the domestic facilities.
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4These forecasting approaches are not necessarily intended to produce more accurate forecasts; they are designed to provide a greater understanding and awareness of future uncertainty. This understanding can then be used in the planning process as well as for providing input to strategic analysis and financial analysis.
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5 • Air service development: A diversification/hedging strategy to increase the range of carriers and routes operated at the airport to reduce exposure to a particular carrier or market. • Development of non-aeronautical revenues and ancillary activities: Revenue diversification as a risk mitigation strategy.
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6It involves the development of a structural model incorporating uncertainty whose primary purpose is to evaluate the combined effect of multiple risks on airport activity and help define and assess alternative courses of action (response strategies)
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7 risk response strategy, to demonstrate robustness over a wide range of outcomes, and to determine value for money.
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