Assessment of Hybrid-Electric Transit Bus Technology (2009) / Chapter Skim
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92.1 Overview and Test Site Evaluation Summary The Life Cycle Cost Model (LCCM) was developed using a variety of inputs, including literature review, surveys, and detailed data gathering.
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provide the user with a reasonable range of predictions. The following sections describe the LCCM, additional data sources used, and model architecture.
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equipment such as air conditioning, multiplexing basic electric destination signs, and standard warranty consisting of one year of coverage for the entire vehicle and two years of powertrain coverage. The cost of extended powertrain warranty is accounted for separately in the LCCM.
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as $20,000. However, it is assumed that agencies with gasoline hybrids would use the services of a local dealer in those isolated cases when more advanced diagnostics are needed.
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for the CNG fueling facility. Costs varied with each location and the approach used to power compressors but, in the end, 6% of the overall CNG infrastructure cost is used to reflect annual CNG facility maintenance and operating costs.
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number of operators and mechanics that require training and their labor rates, and the LCCM will make the appropriate calculations for each bus type. The default number of operators is the number of new buses, and the default number of mechanics is 20% of the purchase number.
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15 Study 1 EIA 2007 Study 2 GII Study 3 IEA Study 4 EEA Study 5 DB Study 6 SEER Study 7 EVA Study 8 EU Study 9 Texas Study 10 GEM Study 11 OPEC Study 12 Delphi 1997 $19.77 1998 $19.57 1999 $19.49 2000 $28.00 $19.53 2001 $19.82 2002 $20.10 2003 $20.29 2004 $42.87 $20.50 2005 $56.76 $50.00 $20.72 2006 $69.11 $20.00 $51.88 $45.00 $20.86 2007 $66.71 $20.00 $47.25 $37.00 $21.05 2008 $64.09 $21.00 $44.13 $31.00 $21.24 2009 $60.91 $22.40 $43.69 $27.00 $21.45 2010 $57.47 $57.11 $51.50 $56.94 $39.66 $44.21 $42.28 $24.00 $43.25 $50.00 $25.00 $21.67 2011 $54.33 $24.40 $43.90 $25.00 $21.94 2012 $51.71 $24.80 $44.32 $25.00 $22.21 2013 $49.99 $25.20 $44.27 $25.00 $22.49 2014 $49.64 $25.60 $44.08 $25.00 $22.79 2015 $49.87 $46.54 $47.80 $49.80 $40.11 $45.27 $42.35 $26.00 $43.88 $25.00 $23.10 2016 $49.75 $26.50 $44.15 $25.00 $23.41 2017 $50.80 $27.00 $44.66 $25.00 $23.74 2018 $51.28 $27.70 $45.18 $25.00 $24.07 2019 $51.95 $28.20 $45.72 $25.00 2020 $52.04 $45.06 $50.20 $47.42 $39.73 $45.87 $45.76 $29.00 $46.28 $47.00 $25.00 2021 $52.73 $29.18 $48.50 $25.00 2022 $53.43 $29.66 $50.13 $25.00 2023 $54.90 $30.14 $52.19 $25.00 2024 $55.64 $30.62 $53.50 $25.00 2025 $56.37 $43.21 $52.60 $45.16 $39.95 $46.23 $49.45 $31.10 $55.56 $25.00 2026 $57.11 $31.86 $57.09 $25.00 2027 $57.63 $32.62 $58.67 $25.00 2028 $58.12 $33.38 $60.14 $25.00 2029 $58.61 $34.14 $61.55 $25.00 2030 $59.12 $40.25 $55.00 $40.16 $46.60 $35.00 $63.30 $60.00 $25.00 Notes: Projections are not adjusted to 2007 dollars, and each projection has its own baseline year; all price projections are in 2005 dollars except EU (1995 dollars) , GEM (2000 dollars)
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Study 1 EIA 2007 Study 2 GII Study 3 IEA Study 4 EEA Study 5 DB Study 6 SEER Study 7 EVA Study 8 EU Study 9 Texas Study 10 GEM Study 11 OPEC Study 12 Delphi Min. Weighted Average Max.
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of different types of CNG, covering natural gas transportation price, commercial end user price, lower 48 (i.e., all U.S. states except Alaska and Hawaii)
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Table 2.12 shows the adjusted CNG prices from different studies. Similar to the crude oil price, natural gas default price uses the weighted average (50% to IEA price and 50% to the rest)
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Study 1 EIA 2007 Study 2 GII Study 3 EVA Study 4 EEA Study 5 DB Study 6 SEER Study 7 Altos Study 8 EEA Study 9 Texas Study 10 NYMEX Study 11 BPA Study 12 LBNL 1 Study 13 LBNL 2 Type of CNG Trans- porta- tion Commercial End-User Prices Lower 48 Well- head Price Commercial End-User Prices Lower 48 Well- head Price Commercial End-User Prices Lower 48 Wellhead Price Henry Hub Price NA Henry Hub Price Henry Hub Price Henry Hub Price Henry Hub Price $ Year 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2002 2005 Nominal Nominal Nominal Nominal Unit $/mcf $/mcf $/mcf $/mcf $/mcf $/mcf $/mcf $/MMbtu $/mcf $/MMbtu $/MMbtu $/MMbtu $/MMbtu 2002 $3.36 2003 $5.29 2004 $12.28 $4.51 2005 $15.20 $11.54 $7.51 $11.54 $7.51 $11.54 $7.51 $5.57 2006 $12.34 $3.90 $7.92 $6.66 2007 $12.65 $4.18 $5.91 $8.40 $7.06 $8.40 $8.40 2008 $12.50 $3.45 $5.33 $8.48 $6.76 $8.48 $8.48 2009 $12.69 $4.93 $5.06 $8.10 $5.65 $8.10 $8.10 2010 $14.38 $4.22 $5.14 $7.65 $5.24 $7.65 $7.65 2011 $13.91 $5.10 $5.21 $7.20 $5.20 $7.20 $7.20 2012 $13.69 $4.88 $5.19 $5.51 $6.90 $7.10 2013 $13.44 $3.30 $5.43 $5.77 $6.65 $7.00 2014 $13.33 $4.87 $5.49 $6.09 $6.55 $7.22 2015 $13.25 $10.05 $5.55 $9.98 $6.07 $8.83 $5.60 $4.43 $5.50 $6.56 $6.61 $7.28 2016 $13.28 $4.24 $5.56 $6.72 $6.82 $7.49 2017 $13.42 $4.20 $5.64 $7.25 $7.92 2018 $13.34 $4.33 $5.42 $7.25 $7.92 2019 $13.33 $4.40 $5.62 $7.30 $7.97 2020 $13.36 $4.64 $5.76 $7.52 $8.19 2021 $13.34 $5.94 $7.61 $8.28 2022 $13.47 $6.12 $8.00 $8.67 2023 $13.50 $6.31 $8.40 $9.07 2024 $13.59 $6.51 $8.70 $9.37 2025 $13.62 $10.02 $6.06 $10.08 $5.71 $9.51 $6.96 $6.71 $8.80 $9.47 2026 $13.57 $6.91 $9.15 $9.82 2027 $13.64 $7.13 $9.50 $10.17 2028 $13.76 $7.35 $9.95 $10.62 2029 $13.80 $7.58 $10.25 $10.92 2030 $13.86 $9.81 $5.45 $9.96 $7.55 $7.81 $10.50 $11.17 Notes: EIA = Energy Information Administration(6) ; GII = Global Insight, Inc.(6)
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Year EIA 2007 GII EVA EEA DB SEER Altos EEA Texas NYMEX BPA LBNL 1 LBNL 2 Min. Weighted Average Max.
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mile units) percent difference is close to half of the weight percent difference, calculated by assuming that both bus sizes are under half of their passenger load.
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22 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 0.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.0010.00 Average Speed Fu el E co no m y Chassis Diesel FE Final Diesel FE In-use Diesel FE Chassis Diesel FE Poly. Curve y = -0.0044x2 + 0.2896x + 1.3143 R² = 0.7394 Final Diesel FE Poly.
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from the adjusted data. The relative equation is the FE model for a hybrid bus, which is as follows: The ratio of differences between the chassis dynamometer data and field data is similar for conventional diesel and diesel hybrid buses (26% and 24.5%, respectively)
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hybrid buses would exhibit similar behavior to diesel hybrid buses, although it is acknowledged that the gasoline engine might suffer lower FE at light loads due to throttling losses. The diesel hybrid final FE data (after adjustment)
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compared to the yearly average FE. In most of the cases, transit buses were equipped with air conditioning systems.
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given battery pack (whether original or replaced) would have a 50% chance of failing during the year in which it was projected to fail, a 25% chance of failing one year earlier, and a 25% chance of failing one year later.
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it with a factory remanufactured unit, at least until use of this equipment becomes more widespread and agencies gain the knowledge and tools needed to perform the rebuilding themselves. Likewise, costs associated with rebuilding the ICE for all bus types and the automatic transmissions for diesel and CNG buses are based on replacing the original units with rebuilt units from an OEM-authorized rebuilding facility.
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by an outside vendor to capture all overhead costs associated with the rebuilds or replacements. In the case of hybrid buses, where a variety of diesel engines can be used and rebuild/ replacement data was sparse, costs are based on replacement engines (i.e., engines were replaced, not rebuilt)
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WMATA (18 ) KC Metro (4)
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use that diminish over time as the product becomes refined. There were no available data over a long enough timespan to capture the offset of costs by warranty.
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Overall Structure The spreadsheet is made up of multiple sheets, each containing different parts of the model. Table 2.26 describes each sheet.
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sheets are generated in 2007 dollars. The User Inputs sheet reads these data and then factors them by an inflation index equal to the compounded inflation of 2.918%.
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2.3 Abbreviated User Instructions for the LCCM Although basic instructions are provided in this section, Appendix H provides a user guide, and Appendix I provides screenshots from the LCCM. Before starting, remember to save the original file prior to making any inputs to it.
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is considered the overall hybrid drive system. Unless you enter a different value in the pink box, the model will select the medium value as the default based on the schedule selected.
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value manually, the model will select the default (medium) value.
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buses for use in operation at the national average bus speed (12.72 mph)
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37 $97.43 $100.23 $120.92 $124.78 $104.63 $0.00 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Pre-2007 Diesel Purchase #1 Diesel Purchase #2 Hybrid-Diesel Purchase #3 Hybrid-Gasoline Purchase #4 CNG Purchase #5 (no scenario) Purchase #6 Total Capital Cost Total Variable Cost Total Life Cycle Cost M ill io ns o f D ol la rs Figure 2.10.
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38 $2.19 $2.26 $2.72 $2.81 $2.36 $0.00 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 Pre-2007 Diesel Purchase #1 Diesel Purchase #2 Hybrid-Diesel Purchase #3 Hybrid-Gasoline Purchase #4 CNG Purchase #5 (no scenario) Purchase #6 Total Capital Cost per Bus per Mile Total Variable Cost per Bus per Mile Total Life Cycle Cost per Bus per Mile M ill io ns o f D ol la rs Figure 2.12.
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39 $73.03 $75.43 $80.12 $83.98 $77.43 $0.00 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Pre-2007 Diesel Purchase #1 Diesel Purchase #2 Hybrid-Diesel Purchase #3 Hybrid-Gasoline Purchase #4 CNG Purchase #5 (no scenario) Purchase #6 Total Capital Cost Total Variable Cost Total Life Cycle Cost M ill io ns o f D ol la rs $1.64 $1.70 $1.80 $1.89 $1.74 $0.00 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Pre-2007 Diesel Purchase #1 Diesel Purchase #2 Hybrid-Diesel Purchase #3 Hybrid-Gasoline Purchase #4 CNG Purchase #5 (no scenario)
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the gasoline hybrid bus. The case where CNG buses are procured and rely on an existing fueling station was not considered in this particular analysis; in situations where refueling facilities do not add to the cost burden, CNG buses become attractive.
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41 $1.37 $1.20 $1.12 $1.06 $1.05 $1.04 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 CNG 5 buses CNG 10 buses CNG 20 buses CNG 50 buses CNG 100 buses CNG 200 buses Total Capital Cost per Bus Total Variable Cost per Bus Total Life Cycle Cost per Bus M ill io ns o f D ol la rs p er B us $3.09 $2.71 $2.51 $2.40 $2.36 $2.34 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 CNG 5 buses CNG 10 buses CNG 20 buses CNG 50 buses CNG 100 buses CNG 200 buses Total Capital Cost per Bus per Mile Total Variable Cost per Bus per Mile Total Life Cycle Cost per Bus per Mile D ol la rs p er M ile Figure 2.17. LCC per bus by scaled purchase for orders from 5 to 200 CNG buses (with range bars)
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42 20 40 60 80 100 120 Diesel 6 mph Hybrid-Diesel 6 mph Diesel 12.72 mph Hybrid-Diesel 12.72 mph Diesel 20 mph Hybrid-Diesel 20 mph Vehicle Related Capital Costs Other Capital Costs Vehicle Unscheduled Maintenance Costs Vehicle Scheduled Maintenance Costs Fuel Costs Other Variable Costs Total Capital Total Variable Total M ill io ns o f D ol la rs $108.56 $104.69 $75.43 $80.12 $62.96 $70.61 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Diesel 6 mph Hybrid-Diesel 6 mph Diesel 12.72 mph Hybrid-Diesel 12.72 mph Diesel 20 mph Hybrid-Diesel 20 mph Total Capital Cost Total Variable Cost Total Life Cycle Cost M ill io ns o f D ol la rs Figure 2.19. Speed effects on detailed LCC comparison of diesel and diesel hybrid buses.
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For a 100-bus purchase with an 80% subsidy, operating speeds affect gasoline and diesel HEB in similar ways. As shown in Figures 2.21 and 2.22, at different operation speeds, diesel HEB are consistently about 5% lower in overall cost than gasoline HEB.
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44 $109.81 $104.69 $83.98 $80.12 $73.89 $70.61 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Hybrid-Gasoline 6 mph Hybrid-Diesel 6 mph Hybrid-Gasoline 12.72 mph Hybrid-Diesel 12.72 mph Hybrid-Gasoline 20 mph Hybrid-Diesel 20 mph Total Capital Cost Total Variable Cost Total Life Cycle Cost M ill io ns o f D ol la rs 20 40 60 80 100 120 CNG 6 mph Hybrid-Diesel 6 mph CNG 12.72 mph Hybrid-Diesel 12.72 mph CNG 20 mph Hybrid-Diesel 20 mph Vehicle Related Capital Costs Other Capital Costs Vehicle Unscheduled Maintenance Costs Vehicle Scheduled Maintenance Costs Fuel Costs Other Variable Costs Total Capital Total Variable Total M ill io ns o f D ol la rs Figure 2.22. Speed effects on LCC comparison of gasoline hybrid and diesel hybrid buses (with range bars)
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45 $113.82 $104.69 $77.43 $80.12 $64.25 $70.61 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 CNG 6 mph Hybrid-Diesel 6 mph CNG 12.72 mph Hybrid-Diesel 12.72 mph CNG 20 mph Hybrid-Diesel 20 mph Total Capital Cost M ill io ns o f D ol la rs Total Variable Cost Total Life Cycle Cost $1.14 $1.05 $0.77 $0.80 $0.64 $0.71 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 CNG 6 mph Hybrid-Diesel 6 mph CNG 12.72 mph Hybrid-Diesel 12.72 mph CNG 20 mph Hybrid-Diesel 20 mph Total Capital Cost per Bus Total Variable Cost per Bus Total Life Cycle Cost per Bus M ill io ns o f D ol la rs p er B us Figure 2.24. Speed effects on LCC comparison of CNG and diesel hybrid buses (with range bars)
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46 $2.56 $2.36 $1.74 $1.80 $1.45 $1.59 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 CNG 6 mph Hybrid-Diesel 6 mph CNG 12.72 mph Hybrid-Diesel 12.72 mph CNG 20 mph Hybrid-Diesel 20 mph Total Capital Cost per Bus per Mile Total Variable Cost per Bus per Mile Total Life Cycle Cost per Bus per Mile D ol la rs p er M ile 20 40 60 80 100 120 Pre-2007 Diesel $5 diesel Diesel $5 diesel Hybrid-Diesel $5 diesel Hybrid-Gasoline $4.5 gasoline CNG $2 CNG (no scenario) Vehicle Related Capital Costs Other Capital Costs Vehicle Unscheduled Maintenance Costs Vehicle Scheduled Maintenance Costs Fuel Costs Other Variable Costs Total Capital Total Variable Total M ill io ns o f D ol la rs Figure 2.26.
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47 $102.65 $105.05 $104.60 $109.87 $77.43 $0.00 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Pre-2007 Diesel $5 diesel Diesel $5 diesel Hybrid-Diesel $5 diesel Hybrid-Gasoline $4.5 gasoline CNG $2 CNG (no scenario) Total Capital Cost Total Variable Cost Total Life Cycle Cost M ill io ns o f D ol la rs $1.03 $1.05 $1.05 $1.10 $0.77 $0.00 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Pre-2007 Diesel $5 diesel Diesel $5 diesel Hybrid-Diesel $5 diesel Hybrid-Gasoline $4.5 gasoline CNG $2 CNG (no scenario)
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48 $2.31 $2.37 $2.36 $2.47 $1.74 $0.00 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Pre-2007 Diesel $5 diesel Diesel $5 diesel Hybrid-Diesel $5 diesel Hybrid-Gasoline $4.5 gasoline CNG $2 CNG (no scenario) Total Capital Cost per Bus per Mile Total Variable Cost per Bus per Mile Total Life Cycle Cost per Bus per Mile D ol la rs p er M ile 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Pre-2007 Diesel $5 diesel Diesel $5 diesel Hybrid-Diesel $5 diesel Hybrid-Gasoline $4.5 gasoline CNG $2 CNG (no scenario)
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49 $127.05 $129.85 $145.40 $150.67 $104.63 $0.00 50 100 150 200 250 Pre-2007 Diesel $5 diesel Diesel $5 diesel Hybrid-Diesel $5 diesel Hybrid-Gasoline $4.5 gasoline CNG $2 CNG (no scenario) Total Capital Cost Total Variable Cost Total Life Cycle Cost M ill io ns o f D ol la rs $1.27 $1.30 $1.45 $1.51 $1.05 $0.00 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Pre-2007 Diesel $5 diesel Diesel $5 diesel Hybrid-Diesel $5 diesel Hybrid-Gasoline $4.5 gasoline CNG $2 CNG (no scenario)
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This circumstance could arise if the imbalance between supply and demand for the gasoline/diesel split ratio increases due to global growth in the future. 2.4.5 Cost Breakeven Point Case As discussed above, if an 80% bus purchase subsidy is considered, HEB and diesel costs are similar, even for a 12-year bus life at medium operating speed of 12.72 mph.
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51 50 100 150 200 250 Pre-2007 Diesel $11.5 diesel Diesel $11.5 diesel Hybrid-Diesel $11.5 diesel Hybrid-Gasoline $10.35 gasoline CNG $2 CNG (no scenario) Vehicle Related Capital Costs Other Capital Costs Vehicle Unscheduled Maintenance Costs Vehicle Scheduled Maintenance Costs Fuel Costs Other Variable Costs Total Capital Total Variable Total M ill io ns o f D ol la rs $217.97 $220.77 $220.56 $232.68 $104.63 $0.00 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Pre-2007 Diesel $11.5 diesel Diesel $11.5 diesel Hybrid-Diesel $11.5 diesel Hybrid-Gasoline $10.35 gasoline CNG $2 CNG (no scenario)
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52 $2.18 $2.21 $2.21 $2.33 $1.05 $0.00 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Pre-2007 Diesel $11.5 diesel Diesel $11.5 diesel Hybrid-Diesel $11.5 diesel Hybrid-Gasoline $10.35 gasoline CNG $2 CNG (no scenario) Total Capital Cost per Bus Total Variable Cost per Bus Total Life Cycle Cost per Bus M ill io ns o f D ol la rs p er B us $4.91 $4.97 $4.97 $5.24 $2.36 $0.00 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 Pre-2007 Diesel $11.5 diesel Diesel $11.5 diesel Hybrid-Diesel $11.5 diesel Hybrid-Gasoline $10.35 gasoline CNG $2 CNG (no scenario)
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53 Pre-2007 Diesel Diesel Hybrid CNG Site Default Site Default Site Default Purchase Order 117 117 50 50 250 250 Average Speed (mph) 17.31 17.31 17.31 17.31 17.9 17.9 Fuel Economy (mpg)
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54 $49.22 $44.55 $29.37 $29.09 $100.81 $107.60 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Pre-2007 Diesel Site Pre-2007 Diesel Default Hybrid-Diesel Site Hybrid-Diesel Default CNG Site CNG Default Total Capital Cost Total Variable Cost Total Life Cycle Cost M ill io ns o f D ol la rs $0.42 $0.38 $0.59 $0.58 $0.40 $0.43 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 Pre-2007 Diesel Site Pre-2007 Diesel Default Hybrid-Diesel Site Hybrid-Diesel Default CNG Site CNG Default Total Capital Cost per Bus Total Variable Cost per Bus Total Life Cycle Cost per Bus M ill io ns o f D ol la rs p er B us Figure 2.40. LCC comparison of model and 2 years of WMATA real-world data (with range bars)
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From page 55... ...
smaller than predicted due to the influence of warranty coverage. For long-term operation, the fuel cost benefit reduced HEB total cost to 21% higher than the amount of diesel buses from field data or 26% higher by the model.
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56 50 100 150 200 250 300 Pre-2007 Diesel Site Pre-2007 Diesel Default Hybrid-Diesel Site Hybrid-Diesel Default CNG Site CNG Default Vehicle Related Capital Costs Other Capital Costs Vehicle Unscheduled Maintenance Costs Vehicle Scheduled Maintenance Costs Fuel Costs Other Variable Costs Total Capital Total Variable Total M ill io ns o f D ol la rs $0.84 $0.91 $1.02 $1.15 $0.81 $0.96 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Pre-2007 Diesel Site Pre-2007 Diesel Default Hybrid-Diesel Site Hybrid-Diesel Default CNG Site CNG Default Total Capital Cost per Bus Total Variable Cost per Bus Total Life Cycle Cost per Bus M ill io ns o f D ol la rs p er B us Figure 2.43. Detailed LCC comparison of model and 12 years of WMATA real-world data.
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13% difference. A 12-year test run is shown in Figure 2.48.(18)
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58 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Pre-2007 Diesel Pre-2007 Diesel CNG CNG CNG CNG Site Default Site Cummins Default Site Deere Default M ill io ns o f D ol la rs Vehicle Related Capital Costs Other Capital Costs Vehicle Unscheduled Maintenance Costs Vehicle Scheduled Maintenance Costs Fuel Costs Other Variable Costs Total Capital Total Variable Total $0.42 $0.40 $0.47 $0.45 $0.47 $0.45 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Pre-2007 Diesel Site Pre-2007 Diesel Default CNG Site Cummins CNG Default CNG Site Deere CNG Default Total Capital Cost per Bus Total Variable Cost per Bus Total Life Cycle Cost per Bus M ill io ns o f D ol la rs p er B us Figure 2.46. Detailed LCC comparison of model and 2 years of WMATA real-world data.
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59 2-Year Site 2-Year Model Difference 12-Year Site 12-Year Model Difference Diesel LCC per Bus (Millions of $) 0.42 0.40 -5% 1.07 1.03 -4% CNG CWI LCC per Bus (Millions of $)
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60 Diesel Gasoline Hybrid Gasoline Hybrid Site Default Site Default Site Default Purchase Order 39 39 27 27 20 20 Average Speed (mph) 13.8a 13.8a 13.8a 13.8a 13.8a 13.8a Fuel Economy (mpg)
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From page 61... ...
bus life, additional costs for 5-year warranty cost were basically equal to the savings on maintenance costs. If an 80% purchase subsidy is used in the model, the LCC differences between HEB and diesel are reduced to an average of 12% by model prediction and 4% by field data (see Figure 2.53)
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62 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Pre-2007 Diesel Site Pre-2007 Diesel Default Hybrid-Gasoline Site Hybrid-Gasoline Default Hybrid-Gasoline Site Hybrid-Gasoline Default M ill io ns o f D ol la rs Vehicle Related Capital Costs Other Capital Costs Vehicle Unscheduled Maintenance Costs Vehicle Scheduled Maintenance Costs Fuel Costs Other Variable Costs Total Capital Total Variable Total $0.93 $0.97 $1.09 $1.22 $1.08 $1.24 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 Pre-2007 Diesel Site Pre-2007 Diesel Default Hybrid-Gasoline Site Hybrid-Gasoline Default Hybrid-Gasoline Site Hybrid-Gasoline Default M ill io ns o f D ol la rs p er B us Total Capital Cost per Bus Total Variable Cost per Bus Total Life Cycle Cost per Bus Figure 2.51. Detailed LCC comparison of model and 12 years of LBT real-world data.
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63 $0.69 $0.73 $0.72 $0.81 $0.71 $0.83 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 Pre-2007 Diesel Site Pre-2007 Diesel Default Hybrid-Gasoline Site Hybrid-Gasoline Default Hybrid-Gasoline Site Hybrid-Gasoline Default M ill io ns o f D ol la rs p er B us Total Capital Cost per Bus Total Variable Cost per Bus Total Life Cycle Cost per Bus Figure 2.53. LCC comparison of model and 12 years of LBT real-world data, per bus (with range bars)
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64 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Hybrid-Diesel Site Hybrid-Diesel Default CNG Site CNG Default (no scenario) (no scenario)
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From page 65... ...
65 2-Year Site 2-Year Model Difference 12-Year Model Difference Diesel HEB LCC per Bus (Millions of $) 0.55 0.62 13% 1.45 1.47 1% CNG LCC per Bus (Millions of $)
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66 60-ft Diesel Site Default Site Default Purchase Order 30 30 235 235 Average Speed (mph) 12.4 12.4 11.6 11.6 Fuel Economy (mpg)
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From page 67... ...
67 2-Year Site 2-Year Model Difference 12-Year Site 12-Year Model Difference Diesel LCC per Bus (Millions of $) 0.57 0.51 -11% 1.22 1.24 2% Diesel HEB LCC per Bus (Millions of $)
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From page 68... ...
68 $1.22 $1.24 $1.39 $1.49 $0.00 $0.00 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Diesel Site Diesel Default Hybrid-Diesel Site Hybrid-Diesel Default (no scenario) (no scenario)
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From page 69... ...
69 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Diesel 2008 Diesel 2012 Hybrid-Diesel 2008 Hybrid-Diesel 2012 CNG 2008 CNG 2012 M ill io ns o f D ol la rs Vehicle Related Capital Costs Other Capital Costs Vehicle Unscheduled Maintenance Costs Vehicle Scheduled Maintenance Costs Fuel Costs Other Variable Costs Total Capital Total Variable Total $99.60 $99.35 $118.74 $111.54 $104.57 $104.31 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Diesel 2008 Diesel 2012 Hybrid-Diesel 2008 Hybrid-Diesel 2012 CNG 2008 CNG 2012 M ill io ns o f D ol la rs Total Capital Cost Total Variable Cost Total Life Cycle Cost Figure 2.62. Detailed LCC comparison of 2008 and 2012 purchase.
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From page 70... ...
70 $123.59 $120.92 $119.03 $116.28 $0.00 $0.00 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Hybrid-Diesel ESS High Hybrid-Diesel ESS Default Hybrid-Diesel ESS Low Hybrid-Diesel ESS Zero (no scenario) (no scenario)
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