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From page 33...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Page 3-1 Estimating BRT Ridership CHAPTER 3. ESTIMATING BRT RIDERSHIP INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY Estimating BRT ridership is an important task.
From page 34...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Estimating BRT Ridership Page 3-2 Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide made before, and trips made with greater frequency)
From page 35...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Page 3-3 Estimating BRT Ridership Ridership Growth Ridership experience with BRT in six major urban areas is summarized in Exhibit 3-1. In most cases, corridor ridership has grown faster than the reduction in transit travel time, suggesting demand/travel time elasticities over 1.0.
From page 36...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Estimating BRT Ridership Page 3-4 Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide EXHIBIT 3-3 Boston: Washington Street Ridership Growth over Time 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 1997 2001 2002 2003 Weekday Saturday Sunday SOURCE: MBTA Silver Line (3) EXHIBIT 3-4 Prior Transportation Mode of BRT Riders % Using Prior Mode BRT System Bus Subway Drive Auto Walk Did Not Make Trip Other Adelaide (Australia)
From page 37...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Page 3-5 Estimating BRT Ridership EXHIBIT 3-6 Characteristics of Houston RTCR Riders Houston METRO Service % Riders with Annual Household Income > $50,000 % Riders with Annual Household Income > $75,000 % Riders with 2 or More Household Vehicles RTCR park-and-ride services 70 50 61 Local bus 11 – 16 NOTE: RTCR = Rubber-Tired Commuter Rail (BRT) SOURCE: 2002 Houston METRO on-board survey In both areas, the improved bus service attracts more high-income riders than the corresponding local bus service.
From page 38...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Estimating BRT Ridership Page 3-6 Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Results from Past Surveys Several transit agencies have conducted attitude surveys to identify the relative importance of different BRT components. Surveys undertaken in Los Angeles, Oakland, and Washington, D.C., are highlighted in this section.
From page 39...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Page 3-7 Estimating BRT Ridership EXHIBIT 3-8 Oakland: Performance Measures Survey Percentage of Respondents Rating the Performance Measure Performance Measure Excellent Good Fair Poor Very Poor Rapid Bus service overall 39.3 43.6 14.8 1.2 1.2 Easy to identify the right bus 45.8 36.5 14.5 1.7 1.5 Wheelchair securement 42.4 37.8 16.6 1.9 1.3 Travel time on the bus 37.2 40.3 19.2 1.9 1.4 Quality of new buses 39.9 37.2 17.4 3.0 2.5 Location of bus signs 35.5 41.6 18.3 2.8 1.9 Frequency of buses 34.1 40.9 19.3 3.8 1.8 Reliability 30.3 42.0 23.0 3.3 1.4 Routes go where I need to go 34.7 36.6 21.8 4.7 2.3 Quality of bus shelters 27.6 41.7 24.1 4.5 2.0 Cleanliness 26.7 42.1 23.2 5.5 2.5 Personal safety on buses 26.0 42.2 24.4 4.7 2.7 Driver courtesy 29.6 38.8 24.2 4.6 3.6 Information at bus stops 27.2 37.8 22.3 9.4 3.3 Availability of seats 21.2 39.4 28.3 8.3 2.9 Value for fare paid 23.1 33.5 27.7 9.7 6.0 SOURCE: AC Transit presentation Washington, D.C. Service improvements desired by bus riders and non-riders in the Washington, D.C., area are set forth in Exhibit 3-9 and Exhibit 3-10.
From page 40...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Estimating BRT Ridership Page 3-8 Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide SOURCE: WMATA Regional Bus Study, 2003, as reproduced in TCRP Web-Only Document 32 (6) EXHIBIT 3-10 Service Improvements Desired by Infrequent Bus Riders and NonRiders in Washington, D.C.
From page 41...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Page 3-9 Estimating BRT Ridership The combined effects of improved travel times, service frequencies, and BRT features on BRT ridership are summarized for four BRT services in Exhibit 3-11. (The information in the exhibit was summarized for the BRT planning study Bus Rapid Transit Plans in New York's Capital District [11]
From page 42...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Estimating BRT Ridership Page 3-10 Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Equitable treatment of all modes of travel in terms of travel times, costs, pathbuilding, and network assumptions is essential. "Path-building" for use in models should give proper weights to each travel time component.
From page 43...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Page 3-11 Estimating BRT Ridership Trip Generation Land Use, Socioeconomic Characteristics Trip Ends Trip Distribution Mode Split Assignment Detailed Netw ork Description, O/D Times and Costs Total Person Trip Tables Trip Tables by Mode Line, Link Flow s SOURCE: Sam Zimmerman EXHIBIT 3-12 Four-Step Travel Demand Estimation Process Mode Choice The choice of travel mode can be forecast in several ways depending on the nature of the project and available data. The generally accepted method for projecting choice of mode in the four-step process is to apply a discrete choice model estimated using disaggregate data of revealed behavior.
From page 44...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Estimating BRT Ridership Page 3-12 Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide ∑ = = n x xdemoofutility mdemoofutility e emP 1 )
From page 45...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Page 3-13 Estimating BRT Ridership Even when all the factors listed previously are included in the impedance function for a given mode, analysis typically reveals that a quantity needs to be included to reflect the unmeasured attributes. This term is often referred to as the modal bias constant.
From page 46...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Estimating BRT Ridership Page 3-14 Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide INCREMENTAL LOGIT MODEL (PIVOT-POINT PROCEDURE) Pivot-point procedures that apply the incremental logit model are extremely useful in forecasting BRT ridership when they are accompanied by on-board surveys that capture key traveler information.
From page 47...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Page 3-15 Estimating BRT Ridership coefficients may be "borrowed" from other sources. Alternatively, the illustrative coefficients shown in Exhibit 3-14 may be utilized.
From page 48...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Estimating BRT Ridership Page 3-16 Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide and travel times. Application of elasticities is generally appropriate where BRT service is overlaid on existing bus routes and there are relatively small-scale investments.
From page 49...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Page 3-17 Estimating BRT Ridership where: E = elasticity R1 = base ridership R2 = estimated future ridership X1 = quantity of base attribute (such as travel time or frequency) X2 = quantity of future attribute A comparison of these elasticity computation methods is shown in Exhibit 316.
From page 50...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Estimating BRT Ridership Page 3-18 Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide EXHIBIT 3-17 Guidelines for Allocating Base Corridor Ridership to BRT and Local Services Service Before Service After Initial Allocation of Service/Ridership between BRT and Local Service Travel Time Savings Service Frequency Changes 1. Single local service Single BRT service All service on street allocated to BRT All time savings allocated to BRT in applying elasticities All frequency changes allocated to BRT; use BRT service frequencies in applying elasticities 2.
From page 51...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Page 3-19 Estimating BRT Ridership Elasticity Computations Preferably elasticities should be applied on a station-to-station basis. An approximate value can be obtained by looking at aggregate time savings and ridership.
From page 52...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Estimating BRT Ridership Page 3-20 Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide x = increase in ridership resulting from special BRT features (0 < x < 0.25) R3 = estimated future ridership If a = 1, the equation reduces to: )
From page 53...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Page 3-21 Estimating BRT Ridership An open question is what features BRT must have in order to qualify as "premium." Is branding sufficient? Can operations in mixed traffic afford a degree of reliability sufficient for riders to perceive the operations as premium, and, if not, what proportion of the service must be on a restricted guideway to achieve "premium" status?
From page 54...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Estimating BRT Ridership Page 3-22 Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide EXHIBIT 3-22 Additional Ridership Impacts of Selected BRT Components Component Percentage 1. Running Ways (not additive)
From page 55...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Page 3-23 Estimating BRT Ridership approaches -- often using elasticities, growth factors, and other simple techniques "borrowed" from other cities -- appropriate for smaller, less complex, and less risky applications. EXHIBIT 3-23 Illustrative Examples of Additional Ridership Estimates Component System 1 (High-Level)
From page 56...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Estimating BRT Ridership Page 3-24 Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide • The system has permanent stations with a high design quality, a high level of amenities, and a unique BRT identity. • The system incorporates high-quality vehicles that are configured for the BRT services offered and markets served and have a unique BRT identity.
From page 57...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide pihsrediR TRB gnitamitsE 52-3 egaP ranges up to 10 minutes for BRT (and up to 12 minutes for rail-based transit)
From page 58...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Estimating BRT Ridership Page 3-26 Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Transportation Studies, Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia, 2004.
From page 59...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Page 3-27 Estimating BRT Ridership 28. Pratt, R.H., Texas Transportation Institute, Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Parsons Brinckerhoff Quade & Douglas, Inc., SG Associates, Inc., and McCollom Management Consulting, Inc.
From page 60...
... Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide Estimating BRT Ridership Page 3-28 Bus Rapid Transit Practitioner's Guide This page is intentionally blank.

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