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Pages 35-38

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From page 35...
... This chapter identifies checklists and guidelines that could be used to improve the state of the practice in toll demand and revenue forecasting. Whereas the preceding chapter reviewed practices in specific topics, the checklist and guidelines could provide a framework within which these topics can be addressed.
From page 36...
... 37 inputs that he believed have had large repercussions, both positively and negatively, on toll road demand and revenue forecasts (6)
From page 37...
... 38 Another TTA document noted that the major bond rating agencies looked for the following topics to be addressed as part of toll road demand and revenue forecasts (2) : • Land use and demographic assumptions, including population and employment information; • Highway network and alternative routes that are both feeding the project or competing with the project; • Weekday versus weekend traffic; • Review of travel demand parameter assumptions; • Trip-making characteristics; • Truck percentage and generated revenue, because of the impact trucks can have on toll revenue; • Peak-period versus off-peak management, especially in managed lane or congestion pricing projects; • Value of time; • Ramp-up period; • Violation rate; • Toll rates and increases; • Point estimate forecasts; and • Economic and political risk.
From page 38...
... 39 Project Attribute 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Tolling regime • Shadow tolls • User-paid tolls Tolling culture • Toll roads well established- -- data on actual use are available • No toll roads in the country, uncertainty over toll acceptance Tariff escalation • Flexible rate setting/escalation formula; no government approval • All tariff hikes require regulatory approval Forecast horizon • Near-term forecasts requirement • Long-term (30+ year) forecasts Toll facility details • Facility already open • Facility at the very earliest stages of planning • Estuarial crossings • Dense, urban networks • Radial corridors into urban areas • Ring roads/beltways around urban areas • Extension of existing road • Greenfield site • Alignment: strong rationale (including.

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