Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Update to the Strategic Plan Document (2016) / Chapter Skim
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Chapter 2: Setting Priorities for Global Change Research
Chapter 2: Setting Priorities for Global Change Research
Pages 9-24
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From page 9... ...
. The challenge of delivering usable information to society is acknowledged as a major additional direction for the USGCRP, something requiring both a commitment to communication and interaction with potential users, but also to research into the process of decision support itself.
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From page 10... ...
The boundary-spanning role is different in an important way from the research planning and coordination role required in Goal 1. While Goal 1 requires the Program to attempt to coordinate the research activities of the 13 agencies in terms of setting broad research directions and budgets in a way that advances scientific understanding of global change, the articulation of Goals 2-4 in 2012 marked a qualitative shift in how the USGCRP interpreted the mandate of the GCRA.
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From page 11... ...
Again, maintaining ongoing relationships with user communities is a core challenge for the science programs of agencies that comprise the USGCRP as they transition the assessment process to something more than production of periodic reports (NCA Sustained Assessment Special Report)
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From page 12... ...
There have been many examples over the history of the Program of discoveries that have advanced our understanding and enabled new capabilities for decision support. These include the discovery of atmospheric rivers and their role in better understanding of precipitation; the discovery of the integrated ocean circulation, ice, and atmosphere dynamics in the Arctic, leading to better process understanding of ice-melt so critical to quantifying sea level rise; the new discoveries of biological functioning that can aid in ecosystem restoration and management in a changing physical environment.
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From page 13... ...
. In parallel, processes for linking scientific analysis to public deliberation have been extensively studied, improving the ability to diagnose particular contexts and to apply design principles in developing processes for environmental assessment and decision making (NRC, 2008)
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From page 14... ...
It is thus surprising to the Committee that interaction with participating research communities to develop the draft USP has not been transparent, and moreover that interactions through mechanisms such as the NCA do not appear to have been systematically mined in setting priorities and developing a strategy. The main locus of USGCRP interaction with stakeholders in the 2012-2015 period has been preparation and release of the NCA3.
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From page 15... ...
In a real sense, looking at the situation in 2015 and for the coming three to five years, the need for information is likely to increase, as global environmental change is experienced in more and more sectors and systems across regions of the United States and as an increasing number and diversity of decision makers confront the need to consider global change in investments, community planning, and other routine decisions. The necessity of having the USP reflect on what is being learned about societal needs is driven by the fact that it is not possible for the Program to respond to all of these demands simultaneously.
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From page 16... ...
Integrated into this sense of evolving need should be a clearer statement of specific program accomplishments, both scientifically and in terms of provision of information for decision support. Such a cross-cutting discussion and synthesis of needs and highlights affords an opportunity for the Program to communicate its accomplishments and to place the evolving priorities into context (see also "Setting Priorities while Sustaining Long-Term Commitments" below)
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From page 17... ...
For example, the USP should link USGCRP priorities for research on the water or carbon cycles to specific adaptation or mitigation decision support needs, or to products from the Sustained Assessment process, or to near-term opportunities to advance fundamental understanding of interactions of atmospheric chemistry and the
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From page 18... ...
As drafted, the USP does not provide any basis for understanding the alignment of interagency Program objectives with the priorities of individual agencies. The Committee realizes that the detailed cross-walk between agency and USGCRP priorities occurs in Our Changing Planet, which is intended to assist Congress in evaluating program integration.
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From page 19... ...
These should be prioritized on the basis of near-term payoff and their ability to advance long-term research efforts already in progress. Ideally, the priorities articulated should then drive an integrated set of observational, process research, modeling, and decision support initiatives that will lead to products to meet these needs.
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From page 20... ...
It states that the integrated USGCRP program "conducts cutting-edge fundamental and use-inspired science and relevant social science" (emphasis ours) , without defining what is meant by "relevant." Moreover, the draft USP notes in several places a lingering challenge to understanding human drivers and responses to global environmental change (e.g., p.
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From page 21... ...
More generally, the Committee notes that much progress is being made in the broader social science community in integrating natural and social science research to improve understanding of how coupled human-environment systems are co-evolving. There is a significant body of research in the fundamental social sciences in the academic and policy communities that directly relates to global environmental change (e.g., NRC, 1992, 1997, 2010a, 2013)
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From page 22... ...
. However, the activities listed still come across as natural science driven (what information the natural sciences can supply and what social science inputs are needed for a natural science decision support agenda?
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From page 23... ...
But many existing safety nets are subject to disruption by changing climates, such as through more frequent disruptions to livelihoods from extreme climate events or increased pressures on health care systems through changing disease patterns. Therefore, a better understanding of the nature of these safety nets and their sensitivity to climate impacts is likely to increase the range of options to be considered in tackling adaptation and reducing the impact of mitigation measures.
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From page 24... ...
But the implicit assumption of this framing is that climate change is the primary driver of impacts, despite abundant evidence from the research literature, NCA3, IPCC, and other reports that impacts arise from the interaction of the hazards associated with a changing climate with the sensitivity of the exposed human and natural systems, and with the ability of human systems to prepare for, respond to, cope with, and recover from hazards. Multiple hazards and stresses interact to produce impacts, and the capacity of natural and human systems to adapt to climate change must be viewed through the lens of synergies and interactions.
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