Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports (2015) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 53-109
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P A R T I V Applying the Adaptation Framework
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59 The frameworks discussed in this chapter share a number of commonalities, including the assessment of vulnerabilities and/or opportunities present at the airport. The need to develop plans despite uncertainty concerning the future is typical in airport planning processes.
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60 Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports 8.2 Disaster, Business Recovery, and Emergency Response Planning Airports develop emergency response plans to deal with a variety of emergency conditions.
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Mainstreaming Adaptation Strategies 61 Synthesis 30: Airport Insurance Coverage and Risk Management Practices (Rakich, et al., 2011) was developed to assist airports with risk financing and insurance purchasing decisions.
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62 Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports Change Adaptation. For airports using the sustainability approach to address climate change adaptations, consider Los Angeles World Airports' (LAWA)
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Mainstreaming Adaptation Strategies 63 8.7 Transportation Planning Frameworks Airports are integral to regional transportation plans and often are involved with the regional planning commission to develop regional plans and policies. Sharing of information, such as local and regional climate data available through the use of the ACROS tool, provides an opportunity for a coordinated effort to address changing environmental conditions common to other regional transportation providers.
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64 Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports 8.8 Business Continuity Planning Business continuity planning is a process for identifying an airport's exposure to internal and external threats and synthesizing ways to increase resiliency. A business continuity plan provides a road map for maintaining critical infrastructure and continuing operations under adverse conditions, including natural disasters that may become more likely because of climate change.
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65 As described in Chapter 8, many airport planning processes provide opportunities to incorporate climate change adaptation. Addressing likely changes in climate and weather is an iterative process, and the approach an individual airport organization takes depends on available staff, political will, financial resources, risk tolerance, external drivers, and capital improvement plans.
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66 Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports to account for expected changes in climate during each planning step is an efficient method for determining how the airport may adapt. Addressing climate change adaptation considerations as part of the Airport Master Plan can provide overarching guidance and efficient use of resources during the earliest stages of a project.
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Master Plans and Climate Change Adaptation 67 Master Plan Step Activity Evaluation Response Examples 3 hours during the flooding last spring Insurance deductibles for next year have doubled 75% of operational staff access the airport via the underground subway, previously prone to flooding The south end of Runway 10-28 was just 2 inches above the high-water mark during the flooding last spring 5. Aviation Forecasts Compile annual enplanement projections through 2030 Annual enplanements are projected to increase 10% over the next 20 years 6.
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68 Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports Master Plan Step Activity Evaluation Response Examples infrastructure adaptive management actions) requires $200,000 in operations expenses and $10 million in capital expenses to implement, and results in a four-hour loss of service during the storm and no significant infrastructure damage 8.
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Master Plans and Climate Change Adaptation 69 9.3 Monitor and Update The Stakeholder Advisory Committee will continue to have a role in updating the adaptation plan as necessary. The recommended schedule for revision is three to five years or in response to important new data or conditions.
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70 Glossary of Terms Adaptation -- Initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects. Various types of adaptation exist, e.g., anticipatory and reactive, private and public, and autonomous and planned.
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Glossary of Terms and Acronym List 71 Climate Projections -- Model-derived estimates of future climate. Likelihood that something will happen several decades to centuries in the future for given developing conditions.
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72 Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports radiation, which is the cause of the greenhouse effect. Examples of primary greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, water vapor, and methane.
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Glossary of Terms and Acronym List 73 Return on Investment -- Financial returns resulting from expenditures. A high return on investment results when the initial expenditure compares favorably to the return.
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74 Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports Weather -- Qualities such as the temperature, moisture, wind direction and speed, and barometric pressure of the atmosphere in a given time and location. Weather is day-to-day atmospheric properties (temperature, precipitation, humidity)
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Glossary of Terms and Acronym List 75 NCA National Climate Assessment NFDC National Flight Data Center NFHL National Flood Hazard Layer NFIP National Flood Insurance Program NGS National Geodetic Survey NGVD29 National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NRDC National Resources Defense Council NWS National Weather Service PHL Philadelphia International Airport QA/QC Quality Assurance/Quality Control RCP Representative Concentration Pathway SLR Sea Level Rise SMART Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant, Timely SME Subject Matter Expert SMS Safety Management System SWEL Stillwater Elevation TRID Transport Research International Documentation TRB Transportation Research Board UKCIP United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change USACE U.S. Army Corps of Engineers U.S.DOT United States Department of Transportation USGCRP United States Global Change Research Program USGS United States Geological Survey
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76 ACI World Environment Standing Committee, Planning Adaptation to Climate Change (February 2011)
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References and Resources 77 Heathrow Airport Limited, Heathrow Airport Climate Change Adaptation Reporting Power Report. London (2011)
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78 Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports Lott, N., A Smith, T
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References and Resources 79 Smith, A
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A-1 Please see the Excel file that accompanies this guidebook, available on the accompanying CD, CRP-CD-175, and for download from the ACRP Project 02-40 description page: http://apps.trb .org/cmsfeed/TRBNetProjectDisplay.asp? ProjectID=3245.
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B-1 A P P E N D I X B Asset Inventory and Criticality Checklist Category Asset or Opera on Asset Cri cality Exis ng Vulnerabili es Aircra/GSE Aircra Performance Demand and Capacity Ground Service Equipment Navigaonal Aids - FAA Owned Navigaonal Aids - Airport Owned Runways, Taxiways, and Holding Areas Cargo Air Cargo Buildings Apron Loading and Unloading Equipment/Opera on Commercial Passenger Terminal Facili es Apron Commercial Passenger Terminal Facili es Curbside Amenies Gates Gates (Passenger Boarding Bridges) Environmental and Safety Bird and Wildlife Hazard Management Environmental (Noise, Air Quality, Water Quality and Quanty)
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B-2 Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports Category Asset or Opera on Asset Cri cality Exis ng Vulnerabili es Personnel and Passengers Parks Regional Infrastructure Support Facilies Aircra Fuel Storage/Fueling Aircra Rescue and Fire Fighng Airline Maintenance Facilies Airport Administrave Areas Airport Maintenance Facilies FAA Facilies (Air Traffic Control Tower) Flight Kitchens Weather Reporng Facilies Ulies Communicaons Onsite Electrical Infrastructure Sanitary Sewer Stormwater Drainage Water Distribuon Systems Other Finance and Insurance Table B-1.
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Asset Inventory and Criticality Checklist B-3 Asset or Operaon Climate Impact Adaptaon Opon Priority Ownership Aircra Performance Reduced Li Lengthen Runway 1 Airline Demand and Capacity Change in Seasonality of Passenger Travel Account for in demand projecons 2 Airport Commercial Passenger Terminal Facilies Increased HVAC Demand Consider increasing capacity of HVAC systems 3 Airport FAA-owned NAVAIDS Electrical Damage Install transient voltage surge suppressor 4 FAA Table B-2a. An example worksheet for prioritizing adaptation options and noting ownership of the asset/operations.
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C-1 A P P E N D I X C Adaptation Implementation Worksheets
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Adaptaon Implementaon Worksheet Service Category Asset/Opera
on Climate Impact Impact Severity Impact Timeline Aircra/GSE Aircra Change From Snow to Ice (Deicing) -More winter precipitaon -More winter precipitaon falling as rain, freezing rain, and sleet Over the next five years Airport Operaonal Needs: -Ice-free aircra -Compliance with environmental perming -Reasonable es
mate of materials needed (deicing fluid)
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Adaptaon Implementaon Worksheet Service Category Asset/Opera
on Climate Impact Impact Severity Impact Timeline Airport Operaonal Needs: Adapta
on Op
on General Applicability Considera
ons Planning Processes Cost and Funding - Is appropriate for airport size and other constraints - Safety Management Systems - Adaptaon opon is comparable to or lower in cost than tradional methods - Meets or exceeds current and future operaonal needs - Disaster, Business Recovery, and Emergency Response Planning - Return on investment for adaptaon opon is relavely rapid - Fits a wide range of scenarios - Risk Management Processes - Funding is available for implementaon - Exisng operaon/asset does not meet current needs - Master Plans, Sustainable Planning and Iniaves - Project(s) affecng the operaon or asset are already planned/underway and facilitate inclusion of the adaptaon opon - Programming and Conceptual Design Processes - Implementaon does not require coordinaon with an external partner - Disaster and Business Recovery Planning - Transportaon Planning Frameworks - Design and Construcon - Business Connuity Planning Table C-2.
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rapid - Fits a wide range of scenarios - Risk Management Processes - Funding is available for implementa on - Exis ng opera on/asset does not meet current needs - Master Plans, Sustainable Planning and Ini a ves - Project(s) affec ng the opera on or asset are already planned/underway and facilitate inclusion of the adapta on op on - Programming and Conceptual Design Processes - Implementa on does not require coordina on with an external partner - Disaster and Business Recovery Planning - Transporta on Planning Frameworks - Design and Construc on - Business Con nuity Planning - Is appropriate for airport size and other constraints - Safety Management Systems - Adapta on op on is comparable to or lower in cost than tradi onal methods - Meets or exceeds current and future opera onal needs - Disaster, Business Recovery, and Emergency Response Planning - Return on investment for adapta on op on is rela vely Adaptaon Opon General Applicability Consideraons Planning Processes Cost and Funding - Is appropriate for airport size and other constraints - Safety Management Systems -Adapta on op on is comparable to or lower in cost than tradi onal methods - Meets or exceeds current and future opera onal needs - Disaster, Business Recovery, and Emergency Response Planning - Return on investment for adapta on op on is rela vely rapid - Fits a wide range of scenarios - Risk Management Processes - Funding is available for implementa on - Exis ng opera on/asset does not meet current needs - Master Plans, Sustainable Planning and Ini a ves - Project(s)
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D-1 Climate Versus Weather The term climate is defined by very long-term processes over many years to decades, whereas the term weather deals with day-to-day weather variations that we experience. Despite the fact that climate is simply a long-term average of many weather events, it is often the impact of the latter (e.g., Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Superstorm Sandy in 2012, California drought of 2013–2014)
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D-2 Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports will continue to increase in the near future, allowing for a more realistic simulation of small-scale processes that are crucial for day-to-day weather variability. Data Output GCM output of important climate stressors such as air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation are commonly available at six-hour, daily, and monthly frequencies.
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Overview of Climate Change Science D-3 According to the IPCC report, there is substantially higher confidence in the projections of increasing temperature compared to precipitation. This is also conveyed in the climate vector confidence, as determined by the research team.
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D-4 Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports Figure D-3. Observed changes in precipitation on a regional level across the United States from 1900 through the present.
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Overview of Climate Change Science D-5 Not all aspects of extreme weather have responded to climate change. For example, despite an increase in the number of tornado reports since 1950, Figure D-5 shows that the number of strong and violent tornadoes has remained steady or actually decreased.
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D-6 Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports Figure D-6. Sea level trends around the continental United States, Alaska, and Hawaii from 1960–2013.
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E-1 This appendix contains links to supplementary information on climate change, adaptation planning, as well as U.S. and international experiences performing climate change risk assessments and considering adaptations.
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E-2 Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports ➢ Additional reports and peer-reviewed literature • Curry, J., 2011: Reasoning about climate uncertainty. Climatic Change, 108, 723–732.
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Resources E-3 • Portland International Airport • Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Experiences and Lessons Learned: U.S. Climate Change Adaptation Planning Efforts The dominant location for most climate adaptation documentation at U.S.
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E-4 Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports achieve is provided. The LAWA guidelines also make recommendations on inter-departmental coordination.
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Resources E-5 The risk assessment component of the framework can be approached at varying levels of complexity. Manchester Airport in the U.K.
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E-6 Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports The airport's key stakeholder groups were then interviewed to gain on-the-ground knowledge of the full range of current airport responses to current climate. Airport assets were classified according to types, values, priority, and weather-related critical thresholds.
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Resources E-7 Using climate change projections and data collected through the other steps of the methodology, the risks and potential consequences were identified and likelihood and severity determined through judgments of the airport's SMEs. Likelihood, considered probability of occurrence, and consequence were considered across five potential areas of impact: safety, security, environment, financial, and reputational and legal.
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E-8 Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports are not limited to) location, useful life, and value of critical assets.
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F-1 A P P E N D I X F National Heat Maps with Ranges AK AK AK AK AK AK AK Figure F-1. Cooling Degree Days.
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F-2 Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports AK AK AK AKAK AK AK Figure F-2. Consecutive Dry Days.
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National Heat Maps with Ranges F-3 AK AK AK AK AK AK AK Figure F-4. Frost Days.
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F-4 Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports AK AK AK AK AK AK AK Figure F-6. Heavy Rain Days.
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National Heat Maps with Ranges F-5 AK AK AK AK AK AK AK Figure F-8.
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F-6 Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports AK AK AK AK AK AK AK Figure F-10. Humid Days.
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National Heat Maps with Ranges F-7 AK AK AK AK AK AK AK Figure F-12. Storm Days.
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G-1 A P P E N D I X G ACRP Climate Model Uncertainty Table
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Cause of Uncertainty What Are They? Specific Examples How Climate Modelers Deal with This Boundary condions Boundary condions are typically fixed parameters describing exisng characteriscs such as the planet's radius, period of rotaon, land cover type, topography, and bathymetry.
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Emissions scenario Emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases vary based on natural processes and human acvies such as burning of fossil fuels, decreasing tree canopy, and increasing release of methane from landfills and agriculture. As a result, changes in the global human populaon, associated lifestyles, and prevailing government greenhouse gas emission policies impact resulng emissions.
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Cause of Uncertainty What Are They? Specific Examples How Climate Modelers Deal with This Atmospheric physics Models work by simula ng atmospheric processes, such as extent of cloud cover, precipita on, or even land-atmosphere interac ons.
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Abbreviations and acronyms used without definitions in TRB publications: A4A Airlines for America AAAE American Association of Airport Executives AASHO American Association of State Highway Officials AASHTO American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials ACI–NA Airports Council International–North America ACRP Airport Cooperative Research Program ADA Americans with Disabilities Act APTA American Public Transportation Association ASCE American Society of Civil Engineers ASME American Society of Mechanical Engineers ASTM American Society for Testing and Materials ATA American Trucking Associations CTAA Community Transportation Association of America CTBSSP Commercial Truck and Bus Safety Synthesis Program DHS Department of Homeland Security DOE Department of Energy EPA Environmental Protection Agency FAA Federal Aviation Administration FHWA Federal Highway Administration FMCSA Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration FRA Federal Railroad Administration FTA Federal Transit Administration HMCRP Hazardous Materials Cooperative Research Program IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers ISTEA Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 ITE Institute of Transportation Engineers MAP-21 Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (2012) NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NASAO National Association of State Aviation Officials NCFRP National Cooperative Freight Research Program NCHRP National Cooperative Highway Research Program NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration NTSB National Transportation Safety Board PHMSA Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration RITA Research and Innovative Technology Administration SAE Society of Automotive Engineers SAFETEA-LU Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (2005)
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TRA N SPO RTATIO N RESEA RCH BO A RD 500 Fifth Street, N W W ashington, D C 20001 A D D RESS SERV ICE REQ U ESTED Clim ate Change A daptation Planning: Risk A ssessm ent for A irports A CRP Report 147 TRB ISBN 978-0-309-37487-3 9 7 8 0 3 0 9 3 7 4 8 7 3 9 0 0 0 0
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