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Radiological Assessments for the Resettlement of Rongelap in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (1994) / Chapter Skim
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6. UNCERTAINTY AND VARIABILITY IN DOSE PROJECTION
Pages 75-80

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From page 75...
... The large among-individual variance and small sample sizes for individual characteristics limit the usefulness of the individual variability. Estimating the entire distribution of individual doses is mathematically sophisticated, but it depends on particular assumptions: .
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From page 76...
... 1 1 Uncertainty in Dose 10 an Individual ~1 ~ tar: I \ /\ DOSE FIGURE 10. Contributions to the uncertainties in individual doses Tom variations among individuals and Mom uncertainties in dose parameters.
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From page 77...
... Mean specific activities for both papaya and chicken parts are poorly estimated because the sample sizes are small. The next largest cesium-137 intake is relatively well estimated (standard error = 4.2 Bq/day, Table 6-~)
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From page 78...
... They are calculated Tom the Ujelang diet survey raw data and data in Robison et al, 1993, tables 20 and B-1. The calculations are underestimates of the true standard error because they assume random sampling of foodstuffs, independent estimates of cesium-137 concentrations in all foodstuffs, and no sampling error in certain foodstuffs (e.g.
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From page 79...
... Accounting for measurement error decreases the among-individual variance, which decreases the probability of an extreme dose to an individual. The net effect of the assumptions and small sample sizes defining the characteristics of individuals is that the true distribution of doses to the Rongelap population upon resettlement might differ from the calculated distribution (Robison et al., 1993, Fig.
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From page 80...
... Because the risk is computed for a person with specific characteristics, it is possible to identify the characteristics associated with high dose and decide whether any person is likely to possess those characteristics. Conclusions · The reliability of the probabilistic approach for estimating uncertainty in the dose to returning Rongelap people is limited by the sparseness of information on variability among individuals.
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Key Terms

  • standard error
  • maximally exposed
  • measurement error
  • exposed person
  • ujelang diet

  • probabilistic approach
  • lognormal distributions
  • rongelap population
  • poorly estimated
  • cesium biological

  • true distribution
  • diet survey
  • positively correlated
  • lognormal distribution
  • individual variability

  • random sampling
  • variance estimates
  • scenario approach
  • extreme percentiles
  • standard errors

  • body weight
  • extreme doses
  • approximated standard
  • body weights
  • dose model

  • appropriately matches
  • individual characteristics
  • measurement errors
  • incorporating variability
  • error associated


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