Transitioning Toward Sustainability Advancing the Scientific Foundation: Proceedings of a Workshop (2016) / Chapter Skim
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5 Sustainable Food Systems
5 Sustainable Food Systems
Pages 35-42
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From page 35... ...
.2 In one study, Dr. Nelson and colleagues examined the effects of climate change on global crop yields by 2050 using nine global economic models linked to both crop yield models and global climate models.3 On average, crop yields decreased by 17 percent and crop prices increased by 20 percent.
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From page 36... ...
are reported as percentage change for a climate change scenario relative to the reference scenario (with constant climate)
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From page 37... ...
He emphasized a need to look more closely at regional and smaller-scale variations in data. Using recent model results disaggregated by region as an illustrative example, India experiences a much larger price increase than Europe; however, results vary significantly by crop and model (Figure 5-3)
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From page 38... ...
In the late 1980s, the Bruntland Report outlined a number of conditions for research and modeling to better serve food security, including less centralized research, models sensitized to decision makers' priorities and industry/farmer innovations, and improvements engaging the research community with placebased and adaptive research.4 These challenges are still relevant, Dr. Howden said, noting that the evidence is "patchy" on whether models have delivered on improvements to decision making related to food system sustainability.5, 6, 7 One of the overarching reasons for why models fail to meet goals for informing management and policy is that models have historically been developed by researchers to inform research-oriented questions.
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From page 39... ...
Furthermore, some countries have met or almost met the MDG goal despite a number of other sobering statistics on the state of their food security, including increases in the absolute number of people who are hungry, failure to increase food supply at the same rate as population growth, and number of chronic recipients of international food aid (Figures 5-4 and 5-5)
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From page 40... ...
SOURCE: Prabhu Pingali, Presentation, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Workshop, January 15, 2016, Newport Beach, California. Adapted from: Pingali, P.L.
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From page 41... ...
Pingali compared remote sensing versus government reporting data on Indian water use and irrigation and found a 100 percent difference in the amount of land under irrigation, illustrating the importance of data quality, ground truthing, and data validation. It may be likely that these data gaps and counterproductive metrics are not confined to the agricultural sector or to developing economies.
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From page 42... ...
He responded that there have been modeling efforts that engaged stakeholders with a narrow focus, such as the investigation of pesticide application, as well as broad applications that focused on farm tourism and off-farm income. Models serve to help synthesize information about the systems being examined and explore multiple options.
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