The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration (2017) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
2 Immigration to the United States: Current Trends in Historical Perspective
2 Immigration to the United States: Current Trends in Historical Perspective
Pages 33-84
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 33... ...
and second generation (U.S.-born children of the first generation) comprise almost one in four Americans (Pew Research Center, 2015a, p.
|
From page 34... ...
econ omy as the Baby Boom generation departs the workforce?
|
From page 35... ...
We note that the spike in the numbers of new immigrants from 1989 to 1991 does not represent a surge of new arrivals but rather the change in legal status for the 3 million previously undocumented immigrants who received LPR status following the passage of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 (IRCA)
|
From page 36... ...
residents obtained lawful permanent resident status. Figure 2-1 SOURCE: This figure replicates Martin (2013, Fig.
|
From page 37... ...
The next section of this chapter presents estimates of the net international migration rate relative to the national population. The first conclusion from Figure 2-1 is that the annual numbers of immigrants in the current period -- the "post-1965 wave" -- are not exceptionally different from the numbers during much of American history.
|
From page 38... ...
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Europe 90.0 82.9 47.5 13.1 47.7 Northwestern Europe 52.2 13.8 14.3 3.0 13.8 Britain 19.5 6.7 8.4 1.9 6.3 Ireland 28.7 5.0 1.8 0.3 5.6 Scandinavia 3.6 6.1 2.1 0.3 2.7 Germany and Switzerland 31.8 7.1 14.8 1.3 8.3 Eastern Europe 1.2 33.4 4.8 5.0 13.1 Austria-Hungary 0.7 16.6 2.3 0.3 5.5 Poland 0.2 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 Russia 0.4 13.7 0.1 2.0 5.2 Southern Europe 1.3 22.5 11.2 2.3 9.2 Italy 0.7 19.0 7.2 0.9 7.0 Greece 0.0 1.9 1.9 0.5 1.0 Spain and Portugal 0.5 1.6 2.0 0.9 1.2 Asia 2.3 3.4 7.5 34.0 18.0 China, Hong Kong, Taiwan 2.3 0.4 2.0 6.6 3.7 Japan 0.0 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.9 Philippines 0.0 0.0 1.3 6.2 3.0 Korea 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.0 1.4 Vietnam 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 1.4 India 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.6 2.2 Other Asia 0.0 1.7 2.3 9.9 5.4
|
From page 39... ...
The boundaries of most of Eastern Europe changed radically from the late 19th century through the early decades of the 20th century. Moreover, many new arrivals may have reported their national identities rather than the country or political unit from which they came.
|
From page 40... ...
. In addition, it should not be overlooked that Native American populations were demographically and politically ascendant in all of North America except the eastern seaboard (Snipp, 1989)
|
From page 41... ...
. However, the differences in language, culture, and religion between new immigrants and the native-born population, combined with popular anxieties over the industrialization of the American economy, contributed to the formidable political backlash against Southern and Eastern European immigrants during the late 19th and early 20th centuries.
|
From page 42... ...
. The Immigration Restriction League, founded by young Harvardeducated elites in 1894, advocated a literacy test to slow the tide of immigration from Southern and Eastern Europe, which allegedly were sending an "alarming number of illiterates, paupers, criminals, and madmen who endangered American character and citizenship" (Higham, 1988, p.
|
From page 43... ...
Moreover, the restrictive laws of the 1920s had dramatically lowered immigration with very small national origin quotas for Southern and Eastern European countries and quotas of zero immigrants from Asia and Africa. Consequently, almost half of the 7 million immigrants admitted during this period originated from Western Hemisphere counties, which were exempt from the national origin quotas.
|
From page 44... ...
This shift suggests that other factors, such as political ideology, are now more important than religion or ancestry. The Post-1965 Immigration Wave from Latin America and Asia The 35 million legal immigrants from 1970 to 2013 represent a new chapter in American immigration history, with more than 40 percent coming from Latin America and 34 percent from Asia (Table 2-1)
|
From page 45... ...
. Much of the outrage in the mass media is focused on undocumented immigrants and the problem of "broken borders," but the antipathy against illegal immigration often spills over to all immigrants, particularly during periods of economic recession (Chavez, 2008; Portes, 2007; Sanchez, 1999)
|
From page 46... ...
With the impending retirements among the large population of Baby Boomers, immigrants will play an even larger role in serving the labor needs of economic growth. 2.4 THE NET INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION RATE AND ITS CONTRIBUTION TO POPULATION GROWTH The iconic portrait of immigration shown in Figure 2-1 represents only the inflow of LPRs to the United States.
|
From page 47... ...
. Table 2-2 shows the best available estimate of the trend in the net international migration rate and the share of national population growth attributable to net immigration for each decade from 1790 to 2000 and annually from 2000 to 2013.
|
From page 48... ...
TABLE 2-2 Components of Population Growth: United States, by Decade, 1790-2000, and by Year, 2000-2013 48 Net International Migration Mid-Period Rate of Total Crude Birth Crude Death Rate of Natural Percentage of Population Increase Rate Rate Increase Rate Population Time Period (thousands)
|
From page 49... ...
Net international migration for Puerto Rico includes the migration of native- and foreign-born populations between the United States and Puerto Rico. SOURCES: Haines (2006)
|
From page 50... ...
In the past few years, the rate per 1,000 for natural increase has fallen below 5.0. As natural increase declined closer to the net international migration rate of around 3.0 per 1,000, the immigration contribution to total population growth has increased to roughly 40 percent, even though the numbers of immigrants per year was not increasing.
|
From page 51... ...
. Even though the overall fertility rate has remained near replacement, the convergence of nativity differentials in childbearing behavior, combined with rising numbers of deaths from an aging population, portends slower future population growth even with high immigration levels.
|
From page 52... ...
In keeping with this line of reasoning, the panel considers both the first and second generations as part of the immigrant population. Figure 2-2 shows the relative size -- as a percentage of the total population -- of first and second generation immigrant groups from the late 19th century to the early 21st century; these figures are based on historical Decennial Census data and Pew Research Center population estimates and projections.
|
From page 53... ...
population, 1850-2030. SOURCE: Pew Research Center (2015a)
|
From page 54... ...
. For the last three decades of the 20th century, Mexican immigration, much of it unauthorized, had been the largest component of the post-1965 immigration wave.
|
From page 55... ...
The economic conditions that dampened the flows of unauthorized immigration have had much less impact on legal immigration based on family reunification, much of which is coming from Asia. The Pew Research Center projections in Figure 2-2, which incorporate the recent slowdown in unauthorized migration, show only modest increases in the size of the foreign-born population from 45 million in 2015 to 48 million in 2020 and to 57 million in 2030.
|
From page 56... ...
For example, Native American populations were only enumerated after they were settled on reservations or in government-administered areas. Religion has never been included in Decennial Censuses.
|
From page 57... ...
African American (non-Hispanic) 11.7 10.9 12.9 12.0 12.1 3rd-plus generation 11.7 10.7 11.4 10.4 10.1 1st and 2nd generation 0.1 0.3 1.5 1.6 1.9 Latino/Hispanic/Spanish 0.5 4.6 11.5 16.4 17.3 3rd-plus generation 0.2 2.1 3.1 4.5 5.1 1st and 2nd generation 0.3 2.5 8.5 11.9 12.2 Asian American & Pacific Islander 0.1 1.2 4.9 5.1 5.6 (non-Hispanic)
|
From page 58... ...
African American (non-Hispanic) 8,810 22,257 35,424 36,589 37,783 3rd-plus generation 8,761 21,731 31,311 31,621 31,738 1st and 2nd generation 49 526 4,113 4,968 6,045 Latino/Hispanic/Spanish 401 9,289 31,660 49,797 54,253 3rd-plus generation 146 4,292 8,384 13,687 16,115 1st and 2nd generation 255 4,997 23,276 36,109 38,139
|
From page 59... ...
SOURCES: 1900 and 1970 Decennial Census Public Use Microdata Sample file, available: http://www.ipums.org/usa/ [November 2016]
|
From page 60... ...
that celebrated their roots through memory, cuisine, annual festivals, and embellished Hollywood stories. Through intergenerational economic mobility and broadly shared economic prosperity, most of the children and grandchildren of Italian, Irish, and Eastern European immigrants joined the American middle class.
|
From page 61... ...
Although Congress may have assumed that there would only be modest increases in the numbers of immigrants and their composition following the 1965 changes in immigration law, the long-term impact was to open the door to a new wave of mass immigration. Not only did annual immigration flows increase but the annual flows of legal immigrants from Asia surpassed that of legal immigrants from Latin America within a dozen years (Tienda, 2015)
|
From page 62... ...
Predictions about the future ethnic composition of the United States certainly should not be treated as projections of the identities that will be expressed by future residents of America. 2.7 POPULATION AGING, THE BABY BOOM, AND THE TRANSITION TO AN IMMIGRANT WORKFORCE The age structure of a population, the relative shares of old and young, has an important influence on economic welfare, social mobility, and the
|
From page 63... ...
The very large birth cohorts during this period rippled through the age structure of the American population over the past half-century. This trend is shown in Figure 2-3 with the fraction of the national population in three broad age categories of 0-24, 25-64, and 65 and above, from 1960 to the present and then projected to 2030 based on the Pew Research Center's population estimates and projections (Pew Research Center, 2015a)
|
From page 64... ...
As the large Baby Boom cohorts -- those born from 1946 to 1964 -- become senior citizens in the years following 2010, the population share in the prime working ages will decline, dropping below 50 percent by the late 2020s. Changes in the age structure and the growth of the elderly population exert a fundamental constraint on public finances.
|
From page 65... ...
and unpublished estimates by Pew Research Center (2015a)
|
From page 66... ...
(65+/25-64 × 100) Growth in Ratio 2015- 2040- 2015 2015 2040 2065 2015 2040 2065 2040 2065 2065 Including Projected Immigration 25-64 173,195 187,554 213,252 65 and older 46,853 82,512 101,333 27.05 43.99 47.52 16.94 3.52 20.47 Assuming No Immigration 2015 to 2065 25-64 173,195 164,620 158,345 65 and older 46,853 80,278 88,469 27.05 48.77 55.87 21.71 7.11 28.82 Percentage Change in the Senior Ratio in the Absence of Immigration 28.17 101.61 40.81 SOURCE: Pew Research Center (2015a)
|
From page 67... ...
. As the Baby Boom cohorts age and exit from the labor force in the coming decades, immigrants and their children will play an even larger role in the American economy.
|
From page 68... ...
Immigrant Generation Time Period Total First Second Third-plus 1960 to 1970 6,317 –526 –1,949 8,793 1970 to 1980 17,195 2,597 –3,092 17,690 1980 to 1990 22,373 5,346 –2,564 19,591 1990 to 2000 19,637 8,703 –920 11,854 2000 to 2010 19,243 9,576 1,462 8,205 2010 to 2020 8,992 4,548 3,954 490 2020 to 2030 2,009 2,093 6,939 –7,022 SOURCE: Pew Research Center (2015a)
|
From page 69... ...
Between 1970 and 2010, the working-age population expanded by about 20 million net workers each decade. From 1970 to 1990, the growth was entirely due to Baby Boom cohorts in the third-plus generation reaching working age.
|
From page 70... ...
From 2020 to 2030, modest growth of the population ages 25 to 64 -- projected as a net gain of only 2 million persons -- will result because of the growth of the first and second generation population segments. Based on the projections by the Pew Research Center (2015a)
|
From page 71... ...
. 2.8 FROM TRADITIONAL GATEWAYS TO NEW DESTINATIONS: THE CHANGING GEOGRAPHY OF IMMIGRANT SETTLEMENT The geographical distribution of immigrants across the United States has been a function of initial patterns of settlement and subsequent patterns of internal migration.
|
From page 72... ...
The deconcentration and dispersal of immigrant communities, as with the general process of assimilation, is a multigenerational process that occurs unless discrimination or other institutional factors obstruct economic and social mobility. The initial settlement patterns of the post-1965 immigration wave follow the logic of earlier immigration flows, except that the origins of the immigrants shifted from Europe to Latin America and Asia.
|
From page 73... ...
Census Bureau, Bartel (1989) found large regional-origin differences in remigration following initial settlement, with Asians more likely than either Europeans or Latin Americans to engage in subsequent internal migration.
|
From page 74... ...
TABLE 2-6 New Immigrant Arrivals by State of Current Residence: 1980, 1990, 2000, 2008, 2010, and 2014 74 Percentage Distribution of Immigrants Arriving in the U.S. (Census or CPS year shown in parentheses)
|
From page 75... ...
Ohio 1.4 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.7 Connecticut 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.3 Minnesota 0.5 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.4 Colorado 1.3 0.8 1.8 1.4 0.9 1.2 Tennessee 0.4 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.1 1.2 Nevada 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.1 Oregon 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.9 Utah 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.4 Indiana 0.6 0.3 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.2 Hawaii 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.4 Wisconsin 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.4 Kansas 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.8 Missouri 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 Louisiana 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.5 Rhode Island 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 Other States 5.6 3.9 5.7 12.6 14.0 16.1 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Average Annual Number of Immigrants Arriving (thousands) 274 766 1,146 1,196 1,267 1,287 Theil's Diversity Index 70 66 77 80 78 82 NOTE: CPS = Current Population Survey.
|
From page 76... ...
. The data for these periods are based on a survey question about the year of arrival in the United States, which is included in both Decennial Censuses and the Annual Social and Economic Supplement (March round)
|
From page 77... ...
. Once migration networks discovered the plentiful jobs and low costs across the South, much of the immigrant inflow was diverted away from California, save for selected high-skilled Asian immigrants and family reunification sponsored by California's established base of more than 8 million foreign-born residents.
|
From page 78... ...
Relative growth of immigrant settlement accelerated in the Virginia and Maryland suburbs of Washington, DC, but increased most significantly in the residual grouping of "other states," which doubled their immigrant shares from 6.1 percent in the late 1990s to 12.6 percent in the pre-recession period. The panel's interpretation is that the attractions of economic opportunity in new destinations, plus the emergence of new immigrant communities, are eroding the pull of the traditional gateway states and cities.
|
From page 79... ...
Although contemporary net immigration rates are not high by historical standards, international migration is a larger component of U.S. population growth now than in the past because the share of growth due to fertility of the native-born has fallen appreciably.
|
From page 80... ...
3. From 1970 to 2010, the American labor force has accommo dated the growth of 80 million persons in the prime working ages (25-64)
|
From page 81... ...
Rather, in any given year, the foreign-born stock represents the survivors among prior migrants, those who neither emigrated nor died. International migration adds not only to the foreign-born stock but also to the numbers of native-born Americans through the fertility of the immigrants after they arrive.
|
From page 82... ...
Decennial Census, CPS, and ACS data on the foreign-born population include permanent residents, persons on temporary work and student visas, and undocumented residents who either entered without inspection or have overstayed visas.8 The native-born population includes persons born in the 50 states and the U.S. territories (e.g., Puerto Rico, American Samoa, etc.)
|
From page 83... ...
. That study found that out-migration rates may have been as high as 60 to 70 percent during the early 20th century, although they varied sharply by group, being quite low for those who faced persecution at home but comparatively high for groups dominated by labor migrants.
|
From page 84... ...
citizens; the remainder consists largely of undocumented immigrants (Pew Research Center, 2015a, Ch.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.