The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration (2017) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
10 Research Directions and Data Recommendations
10 Research Directions and Data Recommendations
Pages 567-580
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From page 567... ...
economic history can be drawn, and short-run labor market and public finance outcomes can even be forecast reasonably well (Kerr and Kerr, 2013)
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From page 568... ...
As with the foreign-born themselves, their children may on average attain different education and skill levels (often higher -- see 1 Because of the inconsistences in the Decennial Census series and the lack of counts of the second generation population, the Pew Research Center also produces projections, including separate projections for the second and third-plus generations, which are used for some of the fiscal impact estimates in Chapter 8 of this report. The Pew population series differs slightly from official census data because of methods of adjustment, estimation, and projection, but the differences are generally less than 1 percentage point, well within the margin of error.
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In turn, their presence may affect employment rates and composition (either positively or negatively) , as well as per capita earnings, taxes paid, and social program utilization -- all integral to fiscal and labor market outcomes.
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, have attempted to do this, but that particular survey was limited to legal immigrants arriving in certain years. A survey similar to the National Education Longitudinal Studies, but focused on a large second generation sample followed from early adolescence into adulthood, would enhance immigration research.5 4 This recommendation is replicated from the Integration report (p.
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. 10.2 INFORMATION ON LEGAL STATUS A second major limitation of Decennial Census, ACS, and CPS data for studying immigration is that neither current visa status nor visa status at time of arrival are recorded, making it impossible to distinguish between lawful permanent residents ("green card" holders)
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Decennial Census and in the ACS using death and birth registrations and a net migration method. "For the late 1990s and first half of the 2000–2010 decade, results indicate that coverage error was somewhat higher than currently assumed but had substantially declined by the latter half of the 2000–2010 decade .
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Citizenship and Immigration Services] should collect data on applicants who were previously out-of-status or entered without inspection, and government statistical agencies should conduct surveys similar to those conducted after the Immigration Reform and Control Act.10 Legalization programs certainly create targeted opportunities to learn more about individuals who were previously living without legal status in a way that provides a window on the broader group; however, it is important for data users to recognize that those who legalize are a selected group that is not fully representative of their counterparts who have not legalized.
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The New Immigrant Survey, the Survey of Income and Program Participation, and the Los Angeles Family and Neighborhood Study are examples of surveys that include direct questions on legal status. This modification could be considered for the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the National Health Interview Survey, the National Education Longitudinal Survey, and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.
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10.4 EXPLOITING MULTIPLE DATA SOURCES For a wide range of information needs underpinning immigration research, strategic linking of administrative datasets -- on visa status for example -- and other sources beyond traditional household surveys can greatly enhance the capacity to track variables of interest, particularly at the individual level, over time. USCIS and other federal agencies compile administrative data containing detailed information about immigrants, including flows of new arrivals by visa status and data on newly naturalized U.S.
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For the United States, the pioneering Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Program13 has proven highly useful for analyzing how labor markets adapt to changing circumstances and, in so doing, has expanded opportunities for more sophisticated studies of employment effects associated with immigration inflows.14 In general, research in the United States has more frequently examined wage impacts than employment effects; European scholars have given more attention to analyzing employment impacts.15 Foged and Peri (2015) analyzed labor market outcomes of low 13 For details, go to http://lehd.ces.census.gov/research.
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The Integration report points out that "matched individuallevel records from Decennial Censuses (and the ACS) with income data from Internal Revenue Service and the Social Security Administration would allow for longitudinal studies of the socioeconomic progress of immigrants in American society and allow for the measurement of both intracohort change and intercohort change (for cohorts based on time of arrival in the United States)
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Citizenship and Immigration Services should create a system that links admin istrative data to Census Bureau–administered surveys, including the Decennial Census, the American Community Survey, and the Sur vey of Income and Program Participation, following protocols that have recently been used to link Internal Revenue Service data to Census Bureau data and/or following protocols developed for the American Opportunity Study (National Research Council, 2013) .17 The American Opportunity Study (AOS)
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RESEARCH DIRECTIONS AND DATA RECOMMENDATIONS 579 research efforts. In this chapter, the panel has briefly identified next steps for pushing the knowledge frontier forward so that a report published 20 years from now will be able to present an even more comprehensive assessment of how immigration contributes to the economy and affects those engaged in its activities.
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