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Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability Proceedings of a Workshop (2016) / Chapter Skim
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Toward Predictability
Pages 43-46

The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.


From page 43...
... Several workshop participants presented work that more directly addresses and tests our current predictive capabilities, specifically regarding how well current models could have predicted the most recent GMST slowdown trend, forecasting how long the current slowdown might last, and prospects for predictability given current observational networks. Predicting the Current GMST Trend Michael Mann from Pennsylvania State University presented recent work indicating that the answer to whether or not internal decadal variations are predictable can depend on the method used to separate internal variability from the forced trend (Frankcombe et al., 2015)
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From page 44...
... Given the specific choices made -- that is, a model more likely to produce cooling events and low-end sensitivity TCR -- this would represent an estimated upper bound for the potential length of the current GMST slowdown period, while assuming no strong volcanic eruptions or strong declines of solar forcing. John Fyfe, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma)
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From page 45...
... s The Role of Unc certainty Baylor Foxx-Kemper of Brown Univer B rsity discussed the uncertain in our und d nty derstanding, observatio and mode ons, eling of air-sea exchange, and what that uncertainty im a a mplies for predicting decadal clim g mate variability Air-sea exchange proces y. sses at a variet of scales ty affect how much heat is stored in the ocean; the errors associate with this te are of a w s e e ed erm
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From page 46...
... and currently un parameterized processes, particularly those affecting air-sea fluxes, must be represented. Fox-Kemper also noted that moving toward really useful decadal climate prediction would require a change of culture and orientation in the research community from exploration to operational forecasting (including the designation of forecast skill scores, validation, etc.
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Key Terms

  • internal variability
  • time series
  • internal decadal
  • decadal timescales
  • model runs

  • slowdown period
  • decadal climate
  • current slowdown
  • forced signal
  • gmst slowdown

  • global mean
  • ocean heat
  • current gmst
  • gmst rise
  • temperature time

  • mean surface
  • model run
  • surface temperature
  • mann found
  • upper bound

  • heat budget
  • forced component
  • actual observations
  • amo signal
  • climate response

  • cooling events
  • volcanic eruptions
  • predictive capabilities
  • gmst trend
  • coupled model


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