Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability Proceedings of a Workshop (2016) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix E: Panel Presentation Abstracts
Appendix E: Panel Presentation Abstracts
Pages 71-78
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From page 71... ...
We also need to develop metrics that distinguish forced change and internal variability. For example, planetary/ocean heat uptake is an important aspect of the transient climate response to anthropogenic radiative forcing, but is it also an essential element of internal decadal variability as is widely assumed in hiatus studies?
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From page 72... ...
Gokhan Danabasoglu, National Center for Atmospheric Research Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is presumed to play a major role in decadal and longer time scale climate variability and in prediction of the earth's future climate on these time scales.
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From page 73... ...
The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on climate through its influence on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Tom Delworth, GFDL Prominent multidecadal climate variations have been observed over the Atlantic and Arctic oceans and surrounding continents over the last 130+ years. Here we use climate model simulations to explore the possible role of multidecadal variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
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From page 74... ...
While our analyses focus on combining semi-empirical estimates of internal climatic variability with statistical hindcast experiments, some possible implications for initialized predictions are also discussed. Decadal variability in Pacific trade winds inferred from coral Mn/Ca: Implications for the rate of global warming Diane M
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From page 75... ...
Along with a Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction from the eastern tropical Pacific, this wind reconstruction corroborates and extends the idea, developed from models and analyses of the well-observed late 20th century, that periods of strong Pacific trade winds are associated with cooler equatorial Pacific SSTs and a slower rate of global warming, and vice versa. By adding Mn/Ca to the suite of coral tracers measured for paleoclimate reconstructions from appropriate sites, we can expand our view of past climate variability to include westerly winds, along with the more commonly reconstructed variables of SST and salinity.
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From page 76... ...
A comparison of this latest analysis to other datasets will be discussed as well as efforts to extend global surface air temperature analysis over the Arctic Ocean. Pacific temporarily hid heat below surface Veronica Nieves, JPL The recent hiatus in global warming was caused by a sequestration of heat in the subsurface tropical Pacific waters and was symptomatic of decadal variability.
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From page 77... ...
Arctic changes and mid-latitude weather linkages in the coming decades: James Overland, NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA Ongoing temperature changes in the Arctic are large relative to lower latitudes; a process known as Arctic Amplification. Arctic temperatures have increased 2-3 times the rate of mid-latitude temperatures relative to the late 20th century, due to multiple interacting feedbacks driven by modest global change.
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From page 78... ...
However, it remains unclear how multi-decadal variability in upper-ocean thermal characteristics has contributed to these Indian Ocean trends. Temperatures and heat content exhibit extensive subsurface cooling for much of the tropical Indian Ocean since the 1950s, likely due to remote Pacific wind changes associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation/Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
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