New Worlds, New Horizons A Midterm Assessment (2016) / Chapter Skim
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4 Progress Toward NWNH Goals - Space-Based Program
4 Progress Toward NWNH Goals - Space-Based Program
Pages 63-92
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From page 63... ...
These included, in rank order, the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) , an augmentation to NASA's Explorer program, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA)
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From page 64... ...
with ESA and physics, matter/ JAXAd energy life cycles, and stellar astrophysics a The survey's cost appraisals for Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) , Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA)
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From page 65... ...
These changes and the cost estimates are discussed in more detail in the following subsections. History While not endorsing a specific hardware implementation, NWNH noted that the design of the proposed Joint Dark Energy Mission Omega (JDEM-Omega)
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From page 66... ...
Coronagraph development and technology downselect 2025 launch Atlas V launch vehicle → Delta IV Heavy WFIRST at KDP-A -- 2016b 2024 launch $2.3 billion to $2.5 billion 2025 launch $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion Inclined GEO orbit → L2 NOTE: Acronyms defines in Appendix C a Paul Hertz, NASA, "NASA Astrophysics: Progress toward New Worlds, New Horizons," presentation to com mittee on October 8, 2015.
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From page 67... ...
so that coronagraphic studies 4 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, 2011, Wide-Field InfraRed Survey Telescope WFIRST Interim Report, Science Definition Team, http://wfirst.gsfc.nasa.gov/science/sdt_public/WFIRST_Interim_ Report.pdf. 5 NASA, 2012, Wide-Field InfraRed Survey Telescope WFIRST Final Report, Science Definition Team, https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1208/1208.4012.pdf.
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From page 68... ...
8 NASA, 2015, Wide-Field InfraRed Survey Telescope-Astrophysics Focused Telescope Assets WFIRST AFTA 2015 Report, Science Definition Team and WFIRST Study Office, https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/ papers/1503/1503.03757.pdf. 9 NRC, 2014, Evaluation of the Implementation of WFIRST/AFTA in the Context of New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.
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From page 69... ...
A steeper funding profile would e nable an earlier launch and would reduce the total mission cost, but it might also have a negative impact on program balance in the near term. In summary, with the necessary funding wedge opened by the approaching ramp-down of JWST construction, NASA is now proceeding with NWNH's top ranked large space priority, although in a form that is different from, and in many ways more powerful, than the one considered by NWNH.
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From page 70... ...
observations and wide-field spectroscopy, the gains from aperture and pixel count have been at least partly offset by the increased telescope operating temperature and by the elimination of dedicated spectroscopic focal plane arrays in favor of a single larger array used for both imaging and spectroscopy. For the microlensing science, the yield of detected planets for WFIRST-AFTA is ex pected to be 2,600 (of which 420 would be three times the Earth's mass or smaller)
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From page 71... ...
17 NWNH explicitly noted that the cost of the guest investigator program was not included in its WFIRST cost estimate. 18 Paul Hertz, NASA, "Astrophysics," presentation to committee February 26, 2016.
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From page 72... ...
The addition of the coronagraph, therefore, addresses NWNH's highest medium-scale space-based priority of a New Worlds Tech nology Development program. The total cost of exoplanet-related precursor science and technology devel opment, including technology development for the WFIRST coronagraph, sig nificantly exceeds the $100 million to $200 million envisioned by NWNH for the New Worlds Technology Development Program.
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From page 73... ...
hardware to flight readiness."21 It recommended that NASA move aggressively to mature the coronagraph design to a level that would allow credible assessments of its expected scientific performance and its cost and schedule impact on WFIRST. WFIRST support has led to rapid progress on coronagraph technology and perfor mance forecasts, as documented in the 2015 SDT report22 and in presentations to the committee.23 In the current WFIRST schedule, the coronagraph is not on the critical path, and recent design modifications make the coronagraph performance relatively insensitive to stability of the telescope optics.
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From page 74... ...
The $0.1 billion increase in estimated mission cost associated with WFIRST's expanded guest investigator and GO program does not, therefore, tilt the balance of the NASA-APD program in the direction of large projects, despite its association with a large mission. Costs associated with the coronagraph and the sixth year of prime mission operations are likewise in a distinct category, as the scientific rationale for the coronagraph program is distinct from the NWNH ratio nale for WFIRST.
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U.S. Participation in Euclid NWNH noted that the science program of the Euclid mission, then in defini tion phase and competing for a European Space Agency (ESA)
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U.S. 26 NRC, 2012, Report of the Panel on Implementing Recommendations from the New Worlds, New Horizons Decadal Survey, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.
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Projected costs from 2015 onward include coronagraph and additional year of prime mission operations. Cost projections are based on combinations of WFIRST Study Office analyses and CATEs performed by Aerospace Corporation.
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From page 78... ...
In comparison to the Explorer program's original intent of deploying a SMEX or MIDEX every other year, NWNH noted the rate of two per decade represented a significant lost scientific opportunity. Therefore, NWNH recommended that NASA support the selection of "two new astrophysics MIDEX missions, two new astrophysics SMEX missions, and at least four astrophysics MoOs over the coming decade."33 The recommended augmen tation was based on the "high level of scientific return on relatively moderate i nvestment .
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From page 79... ...
in 2019, and a MIDEX (with one MoO) in 2021.35 Because of budget constraints, NASA's implementation of the augmented Explorer program did not begin as early in the decade as originally planned.
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From page 80... ...
FINDING 4-8: The first direct detection of gravitational waves by Advanced LIGO is a ground-breaking achievement that establishes gravitational wave astronomy as a revolutionary new probe of astrophysical phenomena. Because of the JWST schedule delay and cost increase, and LISA's ranking behind WFIRST in NWNH, it became clear early in the decade that NASA would not have the resources to begin a gravitational wave space mission in the 2010s.
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From page 81... ...
The NWNH ranking of LISA was based on an equal partnership between NASA and ESA in the execution of the mission and on the success of LPF. Specifically, NWNH recommended that a decadal survey implementation advisory committee
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participation in a gravitational wave mission. The science of LISA is even more compelling than in 2010 with the success of Advanced LIGO in making a direct detection of gravitational waves.
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The X-ray mission IXO addressed many of the high-priority science goals of NWNH, but because of "the technical cost, and programmatic uncertainties associated with the project at the current time,"39 the mission was ranked fourth by NWNH. Nonetheless, given the importance of the science addressed, NWNH recommended a technology development program with an estimated cost of about $200 million for the 2010 decade.
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From page 84... ...
New Worlds Technology Development Program NWNH identified exoplanetary science as one of the fastest-growing and exciting fields of astrophysics. An ultimate goal in this field is to image rocky planets in the "Habitable Zones" of nearby stars and to characterize their atmo spheres with spectroscopy.
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From page 85... ...
Finally, NASA's support of an Extreme Precision Doppler Spectrograph capability helps address a key need identified in NWNH for exoplanet science and precursor investigations in advance of a large exoplanet mission, lthough not at the full level of precision for velocity measure a ments recommended by NWNH. To prepare for a direct-detection mission, NWNH recommended a New Worlds Technology Development Program to advance starlight suppression technology.
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From page 86... ...
The committee believes that NASA's continued development of coronagraph and starshade technology at a modest level for mission design, scope, and capa bility is a positive step and that this activity would be profitably evaluated by the next decadal survey. However, given the substantial advances already enabled by WFIRST coronagraph development, the committee assigns higher priority to supporting adequate gravitational wave technology development than to further exoplanet technology development beyond WFIRST.
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From page 87... ...
. If these fingerprints of inflation are detected, then a decadal survey implementation advisory committee (DSIAC)
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From page 88... ...
LiteBIRD has been selected for Phase A study, with a downselect expected in summer 2016. FINDING 4-12: The Inflation Probe Technology Development program is well aligned with the recommendations of NWNH, with NASA, NSF, and DOE supporting technology development and precursor science.
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From page 89... ...
NWNH identified a "mid-technology readiness level (TRL) " gap in support for technology development and recommended that spending on intermediate technology development be increased by $2 million per year early in the decade and $15 million per year by the end of the decade.
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From page 90... ...
In the context of NASA, balance is achieved through a diversified portfolio that includes large flagship missions, medium-scale xplorer E missions and technology development, and smaller suborbital, data analysis, theory, and laboratory astrophysics programs. Since FY2011, NASA has reported increased funding in the core research and analysis programs by 22 percent.
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From page 91... ...
Budget constraints have implications for the scientific productivity of missions as expressed by the 2014 NASA Senior Review: The operation of the nation's space borne observatories is so severely impacted by the current funding climate in Washington that the SRP feels that American pre-eminence in the study of the Universe from space is threatened to the point of irreparable damage if additional funds cannot be found to fill the projected funding gaps.46 Likewise, a constant level of funding in the ADAP program has not kept pace with the growth in the volume of archival data available.
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From page 92... ...
The greatest challenge to maintaining a balanced portfolio is the cost of the JWST and WFIRST missions. The risk of cost growth remains higher for the cur rent WFIRST design than for the NWNH version of WFIRST.
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