Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments Proceedings of a Workshop (2016) / Chapter Skim
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3 Cases: Methods and Approaches for Risk Assessment and Communication
3 Cases: Methods and Approaches for Risk Assessment and Communication
Pages 33-54
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From page 33... ...
Gregg Garfin of the University of Arizona, Bradley Udall of Colorado State University, and Jonathan Overpeck of the University of Arizona provided their perspectives on how the NCA4 can be most helpful to that region. Garfin offered recommendations for the process of developing the NCA4, based on his experience contributing to the development of the NCA3.
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From page 34... ...
The authors will need more research that provides risk-based assessments, particularly research that takes into account nonclimate factors to produce assessments of adaptive capacity. Third, Garfin offered several possibilities for making sure the document meets the needs of those who will use it, including involving end users in the author teams and asking them to define the thresholds they use in making decisions.
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From page 35... ...
One was a graphic used in the NCA3, shown in Figure 3-1, which he said may have generated more positive feedback than any other graphic included in the NCA3's Southwest chapter. Another was a planning tool he developed with a colleague to guide the people of the Southwest in thinking about climate change impacts for their region, including drought, decreased reliability of the water supply, heat waves, increased energy demand, and strain on the power grid.
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From page 36... ...
showing potential cascades of impacts from the combination of drought, reduced water resources, and power outage in the Southwestern United States. Figure by Ben McMahan (University of Arizona)
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From page 37... ...
A look at recent data, Overpeck noted, shows a significant downward trend in flow over the past century, exacerbated by major droughts in the 1950s and the current drought, which began in the 2000s. Drought can be caused by low precipitation, Overpeck noted, but the Colorado River Basin is experiencing a new type of drought, caused by warming temperatures.
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From page 38... ...
The Colorado River Basin could get a little wetter or a little drier, or stay about the same. Given those findings, he suggested, placing a lot of hope in the possibility of precipitation increase seems unwise.
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From page 39... ...
It is not the case that there is greater uncertainty associated with projections for all of the longer-term consequences, he added; indeed, "when people see the irreversibility, they wake up." The design of the NCA3, which provided short, stand-alone chapters on each topic, made it very difficult to accurately frame the risks, Udall added. The authors were not given clear guidelines for handling risk consistently across topics or examples of effective ways to convey risk information.
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From page 40... ...
. Reprinted by permission of Macmillan Publishers Ltd: [Nature Climate Change]
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From page 41... ...
For example, 10 percent might sound like a small change in temperature or precipitation, but its impacts would be very significant. "We are playing dumb on climate change," Udall concluded.
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From page 42... ...
, Robin Gregory of the University of British Columbia, and independent consultant Susanne Moser offered their perspectives on how the NCA4 can best address coastal regions. Davidson drew on her experience with the NCA3, noting that the assessment was the first to include a chapter focused explicitly on coastal issues.
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From page 43... ...
Now surges are reported in terms of feet above ground level, which is "much easier to understand." The most urgent challenges in coastal regions will be to elevate and harden critical infrastructure and to relocate noncritical infrastructure, Davidson observed. This challenge will require innovative thinking about financing and other nonscientific issues, so technical input on these issues will be key to the usefulness of the NCA4 coastal chapter.
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From page 44... ...
There, experts had tried hard to convince the personnel managing the port to consider planning for climate change impacts that are low probability but could have very serious consequences. The port officials were less worried, Gregory explained, about the possible consequences of those impacts than in the political consequences of the spending required to prepare for them.
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Effective dialogue and public communication about climate change issues is the responsibility of the climate science community and decision makers, Gregory added. "It is our job to make ourselves intelligible," he said.
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From page 46... ...
There are no studies that effectively integrate even the most important of the factors that will affect outcomes. Most planners and members of the general public are not in a position to understand complex risk assessments.
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From page 47... ...
. In closing, Moser noted that even the most carefully prepared risk assessments and characterizations are not fit for the purposes of a national assess
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From page 48... ...
On the other hand, several participants agreed that focusing not on the risk of climate change but on the risk of failing to deal with it could be very valuable in "shaking people loose." ENERGY-LAND-WATER INTERACTIONS Peter Gleick of the Pacific Institute, Paul Fleming of Seattle Public Utilities, and Joseph Arvai of the University of Michigan offered their perspectives on risk characterization in the context of the nexus among water, energy, and land. The NCA3 described the nexus this way: 5See http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/response-strategies/sustained-assessment [May 2016]
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From page 49... ...
Land-use planners need to consider the interactive impacts of strained water supplies on cities, agriculture, and ecological needs. Across the country, these intertwined sectors will witness increased stresses due to climate changes that are projected to reduce water quality and quantity in many regions and change heating and cooling electric ity demand, among other impacts.
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From page 50... ...
One important step to increase readership is to involve the groups most vulnerable to climate change in developing the report, both to learn more explicitly about what their needs are and also to reach broader communities through them. As examples, these groups include water utility managers, managers of highly energy-dependent operations, forest fire agency managers, reservoir and ski-resort managers, coastal regulatory planners, and infectious disease specialists.
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From page 51... ...
Seattle Public Utilities, he noted, commissions its own detailed vulnerability assessment. However, Fleming noted that he has used the NCA "as a buttress to support organizational changes" he advocated, such as a new management strategy for drainage and wastewater.
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From page 52... ...
He highlighted the vital importance of the interacting water, energy, and land systems, noting that changes in them can potentially affect numerous vital services and cause social disruption. Given the range of stakeholders and interests involved in these systems, he noted, the challenge of coordinating them is potentially daunting.
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From page 53... ...
Another noted that there is little evidence about how previous NCAs have been used and how users have responded to them, and recommended that mechanisms for collecting feedback be among the interactive features built into the NCA4. A few participants offered examples and comments to illustrate some of the obstacles that may constrain users from changing standard practices in response to the messages in the NCA.
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From page 54... ...
54 CHARACTERIZING RISK IN CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENTS procedures for collective decision making, in which multiple stakeholders influence the choices and share in responsibility for the outcomes, is another way to support those making changes. Another participant observed that many of the changes designed to reduce emissions may have other valuable social benefits -- related to human health and the economy, for example -- and that highlighting those also fosters a safe environment for action.
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