Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments Proceedings of a Workshop (2016) / Chapter Skim
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1 Introduction
1 Introduction
Pages 1-8
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, the USGCRP hopes to improve its usefulness to decision makers by more clearly addressing the societal risks associated with climate change, rather than primarily cataloging the biophysical effects that have been observed and are projected for the future. The NCA4 will directly address the multiple, interacting factors that influence the risks that changes in climate 1See http://www.globalchange.gov/ for more information [April 2016]
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tools and approaches reflecting contemporary insights from the risk and decision sciences related to climate change; (4) planning for and managing climate-related risks in various sectors and U.S.
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approaches for framing climate change risk that can guide chapter authors; 2. challenges of representing the range of biophysical consequences of climate change and their interactions with social and economic changes that matter to decision makers; 3.
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• Impact: An effect of physical climatic events, such as an increase in droughts or wildfires or a rise in sea levels. • Mitigation: Steps taken to reduce the rate of climate change, for example, using changes in technology and human behavior to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.
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Up to now, he suggested, risk has been defined in terms of physical and biological events that can follow from climate change as "the sum over all possible events of probability times consequences." Less attention has been given to the consequences of these events for human well-being, that is, to characterizing the probabilities of their occurrence, as well as the character and quality of the consequences. To prepare for the future, he said, it is critical that people have a much clearer picture of how likely different possible consequences are, understand the strength of the available evidence, and have a realistic understanding of what it will mean for society if "the worst is true." Many people assume that the uncertainty in climate change projections means it is just as likely that the outcomes could turn out to be favorable as not, Holdren noted.
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Recent reports, including Risky Business: A Climate Risk Assessment for the United States (Risky Business Project, 2014) and Climate Change in the United States: Benefits of Global Action (U.S.
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It is a big challenge, however, to educate people about how dependent humans are on ecosystems, a participant noted. As the importance of ecosystems to food and water supplies, for example, becomes better understood, measures of how badly ecosystems are being disrupted by climate change will become effective tools.
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