Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades The Sixth Biennial Review - 2016 (2016) / Chapter Skim
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, a joint effort launched by the state and the federal government in 2000, seeks to reverse the decline of the ecosystem. The $16.4 billion project was originally envisioned as a 30- to 40-year effort to achieve ecological restoration by reestablishing the natural hydrologic characteristics of the Everglades, where feasible, and to create a water system that serves the needs of both the natural and the human systems of South Florida.
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All of these factors underscore the critical need for forward-looking, system wide analysis to examine restoration outcomes and revisit CERP goals and objec tives in light of recent and potential future changes. Forward-looking analysis, in conjunction with program-level adaptive management and long-overdue updated systemwide restoration plan evaluations (termed "CERP updates")
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See Chapter 3 for more information on CERP implementation progress. SOURCE: © International Mapping Associates.
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Rigorous monitoring is essential to document the ecosystem responses to these projects, to communicate restoration progress to decision makers and the public and to inform future restoration projects. Water quality in the remnant Everglades continues to improve through enhancements in stormwater treatment area (STA)
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As a result, outflows from the lake continue to contribute nutrient pollution to the estuaries, as evidenced by the algal blooms of 2016, and make it more difficult to reach CERP goals for those areas. Additionally, if high phosphorus loads into Lake Okeechobee are not reduced through more stringent nutrient management in the watershed, larger CERP STAs may be necessary for future projects that move lake water south.
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The creation of new wetlands and alterations in hydrology in Everglades restoration creates potential conflicts between broad restoration goals and the specific needs of protected species. The frequent nesting of stilts and snail kites in the STAs affects operations of most flow-ways and a large percentage of individual STA treatment cells.
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Climate change has the potential for marked effects on the structure and functioning of the Everglades, increasing the need for CERP benefits that are robust in the face of climate change uncertainties or outcomes that help mitigate the effects of changing climate and sea level rise. New information, project designs, and revised lake management rules have reduced the storage capacity envisioned originally in the CERP by over 1 million AF compared to the 1999 plan, which could have serious ecological consequences in both the northern estuaries and the Everglades ecosystem if this shortfall is not addressed.
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Meanwhile, climate change scenario analyses suggest an increased need for water storage under both reduced and increased precipitation scenarios to mitigate future ecosystem and water supply impacts. Considerable uncertainty exists regarding future Lake Okeechobee regula tion, available water storage beyond Lake Okeechobee, and the impacts of a changing climate.
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A planning process, with substantial public engagement, would need to evaluate different regulation schedule options and their differential benefits for the lake, the northern estuaries, and the remnant Everglades as well as related economic and water supply impacts. Expediting the revision to the lake regulation schedule would also ensure that the process is complete (including a required dam safety risk assessment)
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To expedite implementation of the Program-Level Adaptive Management Plan, an implementation strategy to address the Priority 1 uncertainties is needed that identifies tasks, timelines, resources, and staffing required, and the highest priorities if sufficient funding is not available for the ideal implementation plan. A systemwide analysis of the potential future state of the Everglades eco system, with and without CERP and other restoration projects, should be con ducted in conjunction with a CERP Update, which is long overdue.
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Tools and strategies are available to explore future climate change and sea-level rise scenarios, examine the robustness of the CERP to these potential futures, and enhance decision making under uncertainty. These approaches can illuminate opportunities to adapt the restoration plan to changing precipitation, hydrology, and sea level rise and mitigate the impacts of climate change.
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